Saudi Market Prepares for Recovery

An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
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Saudi Market Prepares for Recovery

An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser

Investors and financial markets are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates, which will be announced after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. Debate is focused on whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, with polls favoring a 50-basis point reduction.

With this decision looming, questions arise about its impact on Gulf markets, particularly Saudi Arabia. Asharq Al-Awsat spoke with financial experts who predicted positive effects on market liquidity, especially in key sectors.

Attracting Investments

Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the chances of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points have risen to 68%. This would attract more foreign investment into the Saudi market, increasing cash flows and boosting trading volumes and liquidity in the Saudi stock exchange. Al-Farraj also noted that lower interest rates would have a positive impact on corporate revenues in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025, driving economic growth, reducing financing costs, and enhancing profit margins, which would raise the overall market value of the Saudi stock market.

Key Benefiting Sectors

Ibrahim Al-Nuwaibet, CEO of Qima Capital, stated that stock prices are unlikely to see a major change as markets tend to react to interest rate changes before they are officially announced. He explained that the market had already absorbed the potential rate cut, especially since a 25-basis-point reduction would have had more impact if it had occurred in July. Al-Nuwaibet noted that the sectors most likely to benefit include finance companies, which have been hurt by high interest rates, as well as sectors dependent on long-term contracts requiring bank financing. Additionally, the petrochemical sector, including companies like SABIC, Yansab, and Aramco, could benefit, though it may take longer for the global market to respond.

Gulf Central Banks

Gulf countries are expected to follow the US Federal Reserve with their own monetary easing once the rate cut is announced. Gulf central banks have closely tracked the Fed’s rate hikes since 2022 to manage inflation, given their currencies’ peg to the US dollar. Saudi Arabia’s central bank (SAMA) is expected to reduce interest rates in line with the Fed.

In July 2023, SAMA raised its reverse repo rate by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.50% and its repo rate from 5.75% to 6%, aligning with the Fed’s increase to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Similarly, the UAE and Qatar raised their rates to 5.4% and 6%, respectively.

Despite this, Gulf banks may face reduced profitability as interest rates fall, with Standard & Poor’s forecasting a 12% decline in profits for Gulf banks following the cut.

Inflation and Market Outlook

Abdullah Al-Jubaili, a member of the Saudi and International Analysts Union, told Asharq Al-Awsat that inflation in the US has significantly declined after two years of elevated interest rates, which has impacted both the US and global economies. He noted that a single rate cut of 50 basis points may not be sufficient to fully stimulate economic recovery.



Turkish Inflation Falls to 35.4% in May, Below Forecast 

People on a ferry cross the Bosphorus backdropped by the Galata Tower during sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 May 2025. (EPA)
People on a ferry cross the Bosphorus backdropped by the Galata Tower during sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 May 2025. (EPA)
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Turkish Inflation Falls to 35.4% in May, Below Forecast 

People on a ferry cross the Bosphorus backdropped by the Galata Tower during sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 May 2025. (EPA)
People on a ferry cross the Bosphorus backdropped by the Galata Tower during sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 May 2025. (EPA)

Turkish annual inflation dipped to 35.41% in May, official data showed on Tuesday, below a Reuters poll forecast and less than half the level of more than 75% that it reached a year earlier.

Month-on-month, consumer price inflation was 1.53%, the Turkish Statistical Institute said, also below forecasts. In April, inflation stood at 3.0% on a monthly basis and 37.86% annually.

In a Reuters poll, the monthly inflation rate was expected to be 2.0% in May, with the annual rate seen at 36.1%.

Annual increases were led by education prices, which were up 71.67% on the year, while housing prices climbed 67.43%. Food and non-alcoholic drinks prices rose 32.87%.

Inflation is seen at around 30% by end-2025, the poll showed, above a central bank forecast of 24%. Economists have revised up year-end inflation forecasts since March despite the central bank's recent tightening steps.

In March, Turkish assets suffered, with the lira touching a record low against the US dollar after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu - President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's chief political rival - was jailed pending trial over graft charges that he denies.

The domestic producer price index rose 2.48% month-on-month in May for an annual rise of 23.13%, the data showed.