Saudi Market Prepares for Recovery

An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
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Saudi Market Prepares for Recovery

An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
An investor monitors a screen displaying stock information at the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia January 18, 2016. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser

Investors and financial markets are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates, which will be announced after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. Debate is focused on whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, with polls favoring a 50-basis point reduction.

With this decision looming, questions arise about its impact on Gulf markets, particularly Saudi Arabia. Asharq Al-Awsat spoke with financial experts who predicted positive effects on market liquidity, especially in key sectors.

Attracting Investments

Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the chances of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points have risen to 68%. This would attract more foreign investment into the Saudi market, increasing cash flows and boosting trading volumes and liquidity in the Saudi stock exchange. Al-Farraj also noted that lower interest rates would have a positive impact on corporate revenues in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025, driving economic growth, reducing financing costs, and enhancing profit margins, which would raise the overall market value of the Saudi stock market.

Key Benefiting Sectors

Ibrahim Al-Nuwaibet, CEO of Qima Capital, stated that stock prices are unlikely to see a major change as markets tend to react to interest rate changes before they are officially announced. He explained that the market had already absorbed the potential rate cut, especially since a 25-basis-point reduction would have had more impact if it had occurred in July. Al-Nuwaibet noted that the sectors most likely to benefit include finance companies, which have been hurt by high interest rates, as well as sectors dependent on long-term contracts requiring bank financing. Additionally, the petrochemical sector, including companies like SABIC, Yansab, and Aramco, could benefit, though it may take longer for the global market to respond.

Gulf Central Banks

Gulf countries are expected to follow the US Federal Reserve with their own monetary easing once the rate cut is announced. Gulf central banks have closely tracked the Fed’s rate hikes since 2022 to manage inflation, given their currencies’ peg to the US dollar. Saudi Arabia’s central bank (SAMA) is expected to reduce interest rates in line with the Fed.

In July 2023, SAMA raised its reverse repo rate by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.50% and its repo rate from 5.75% to 6%, aligning with the Fed’s increase to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Similarly, the UAE and Qatar raised their rates to 5.4% and 6%, respectively.

Despite this, Gulf banks may face reduced profitability as interest rates fall, with Standard & Poor’s forecasting a 12% decline in profits for Gulf banks following the cut.

Inflation and Market Outlook

Abdullah Al-Jubaili, a member of the Saudi and International Analysts Union, told Asharq Al-Awsat that inflation in the US has significantly declined after two years of elevated interest rates, which has impacted both the US and global economies. He noted that a single rate cut of 50 basis points may not be sufficient to fully stimulate economic recovery.



Saudi Arabia Enacts Reforms to Boost Business Climate, Investment Appeal

Riyadh (SPA)
Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Enacts Reforms to Boost Business Climate, Investment Appeal

Riyadh (SPA)
Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia will enforce two major regulatory frameworks, the Law of Commercial Register and Law of Trade Names, starting Thursday, marking a significant overhaul of its business registration process.

The reforms are part of the kingdom’s ongoing efforts to modernize its regulatory environment, create a more business-friendly ecosystem, and strengthen its position as a global investment hub in line with Vision 2030.

Approved by the Saudi government on Sept. 17, the new laws represent a major regulatory shift aimed at empowering investors, facilitating business growth, and unlocking investment opportunities nationwide.

They form part of a broader, ongoing regulatory transformation designed to enhance transparency, improve the business climate, and align with the kingdom’s economic and technological advancements.

Commerce Minister Majid Al-Kassabi said the Cabinet’s approval of the laws aims to streamline business operations and ease the burden on enterprises by consolidating their registration into a single nationwide record.

The new framework also standardizes the reservation and registration of trade names to protect and enhance their value, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s economic and technological advancements under Vision 2030.

Saudi Arabia ranks 62nd out of 190 economies in the World Bank's latest annual Ease of Doing Business index.

Ministry of Commerce official spokesperson Abdulrahman Al-Hussein noted that the new commercial register law introduces major changes.

Among the key changes are the elimination of subsidiary registers, with a single commercial register now being sufficient. Additionally, the law removes the requirement to specify the city of registration, allowing one commercial registration to apply across all regions of the Kingdom.

The new law also obligated commercial establishments in Saudi Arabia to open bank accounts linked to the establishment in order to enhance its reliability and ensure the integrity of its transactions.

In addition, the law cancels the expiration date for the commercial register, requiring only an annual confirmation of the data, the spokesman stated.

Under the law, the commercial registration number will serve as the establishment’s unified number, starting with (7).

The ministry will grant existing subsidiary registers a five-year grace period to rectify their status in accordance with the new regulations.

Meanwhile, the new Law of Trade Names in Saudi Arabia, which consists of 23 articles, aims to regulate the procedures for reserving and recording names in the commercial register, maximizing their value, and protecting them and their rights.

The law allows a trade name to be reserved before it is recorded for a specific period that can be extended. It also sets the requirements that must be met by trade names to be registered or reserved, and the criteria for prohibited names.

Al-Hussein explained that the new regulations also allow for the reservation and registration of trade names in English, including letters or numbers.

This marks a departure from the previous law, which permitted only Arabic names without foreign characters or numbers.

The new law will enable the management of trade names independently from the establishment, allowing for the transfer of their ownership while prohibiting the registration of identical or similar names for different establishments in Saudi Arabia, even if their activities differ.

Al-Hussein noted that the law also includes regulations for reserving family names as trade names and establishes criteria for prohibited or misleading names.