Gold Hits Record High on Weak Dollar, Middle East Tensions

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
TT

Gold Hits Record High on Weak Dollar, Middle East Tensions

FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa
FILED - 16 March 2023, Bavaria, Munich: Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa

Spot gold prices hit a record high on Friday as a weak dollar, expectations of more U.S. interest rate cuts and tensions in the Middle East more than offset muted physical demand in Asia.

Spot gold was up 1.0% at $2,613.09 per ounce by 1058 GMT after hitting a record high of $2,614.49. US gold futures rose 0.9% to $2,638.30.

Non-yielding gold is up 27% so far this year, heading for its biggest annual rise since 2010. It got the latest boost from the start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

"We expect further dollar depreciation, as the Fed catches up with other central banks who started their cutting cycles earlier. That should be gold price positive," said WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah.

Gold could hit $3,000 per ounce in a year amid geopolitical risks and investors hedging against a slowing economy, he added.

However, from a technical point of view, gold's Relative Strength Index moved into "overbought" territory on Friday, at 70.4.

"Over the last few weeks gold's inverse relationship with the US dollar, and indeed US treasury yields, has been very much reinstated," said independent analyst Ross Norman.

"The path of least resistance for gold looks to be to continue higher and, even though it looks well overbought and much above fair value, the momentum trades are behind it and price strength looks in order," Norman said.

Meanwhile, demand from the physical sector in Asia remains light and gold is trading there at a discount to the London price. Top consumer China did not import any gold from a major trading hub Switzerland in August, for the first time in 3-1/2 years.

In other metals, silver gained 1.8% to $31.32, platinum was steady at $989.21 and palladium fell 0.2% to $1,078.58.



Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance

Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
TT

Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance

Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Global credit ratings agency Fitch on Friday revised its outlook on Italy to 'positive' from 'stable', citing recent improvements in the fiscal performance of the euro zone's third largest economy and its commitment to EU budget regulations.
The upgrade to the outlook is a boost to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government and comes shortly after Rome reached an agreement with the European Commission on a seven-year budget adjustment, said Reuters.
"Italy's fiscal credibility has increased, and the 2025 budget underscores the government's commitment to EU fiscal rules," Fitch said in a statement.
The agency confirmed Italy's rating at 'BBB'.
In June, the Commission placed Italy and six other countries under a disciplinary procedure due to high budget deficits. Italy's 2023 shortfall came in at 7.2% of gross domestic product, the highest in the 20-nation euro zone.
However, last month the Italian government revised down its targets for the deficit this year and next, to 3.8% and 3.3% of GDP respectively, and said the deficit would fall below the EU’s 3% limit in 2026.
"The judgments of the ratings agencies are the result of the responsible actions of this government and they underscore Italy's credibility," Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in a statement after Fitch's announcement.
Earlier on Friday, S&P Global confirmed its rating on Italy at 'BBB' and left the outlook at 'stable'.
RISING DEBT
Despite the narrowing annual budget deficits, Italy's debt, proportionally the second highest in the euro zone, is forecast by the government to climb from 134.8% of gross domestic product last year to 137.8% in 2026, before gradually declining.
The Treasury says the projected increase is due to costly home renovation incentives adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, known as the Superbonus scheme.
The premium investors pay to hold Italian government bonds over top-rated German ones narrowed on Friday to around 116 basis points, the lowest level since end-2021.
Analysts said earlier this week that positive news from any of the ratings agencies due to review Italy could trigger a further narrowing of the yield spread against Germany.
Fitch said its revision to Italy's outlook was also driven by "signs of stronger potential growth and a more stable political context."
The Italian economy expanded by 0.7% in 2023, and most analysts expect a similar modest growth rate this year, slightly below the government's official 1% target.
Meloni, who took office two years ago, retains high approval ratings and opinion polls show her right-wing Brothers of Italy party is comfortably the largest in Italy, with popular support of almost 30%, up from the 26% it won at the 2022 election.
Italy faces further credit rating reviews by Moody's, DBRS and Scope Ratings over the next few weeks up to No. 29.