Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Budget Projects Revenues of $315.5 Bn

The Saudi government affirmed its commitment to adopting strategic expansionary spending policies that support economic diversification and sustainable growth (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi government affirmed its commitment to adopting strategic expansionary spending policies that support economic diversification and sustainable growth (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Budget Projects Revenues of $315.5 Bn

The Saudi government affirmed its commitment to adopting strategic expansionary spending policies that support economic diversification and sustainable growth (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi government affirmed its commitment to adopting strategic expansionary spending policies that support economic diversification and sustainable growth (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia is forecasting total revenues of SAR1.184 trillion ($315.5 billion) for 2025, with expenditures expected to reach SAR1.285 trillion ($342 billion).

This would result in a projected deficit of SAR101 billion, driven by expansionary spending policies to support economic growth, according to the preliminary budget statement.

The economy is anticipated to grow by 4.6%, a rise from just 0.8% in 2023, with non-oil sectors expected to expand by 3.7%.

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan reiterated the commitment to increase spending on essential services and execute strategic projects. He stated that the positive economic outlook reflects Saudi Arabia’s dedication to its ambitious plans.

For the current year, the Kingdom expects revenues and expenditures of SAR1.23 trillion and SAR1.35 trillion, respectively, which could lead to a deficit of SAR118 billion.

According to the preliminary budget statement from Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance, total revenues for the fiscal year 2025 are expected to be around SAR1.184 trillion, rising to about SAR1.289 trillion by 2027.

Total expenditures for 2025 are estimated at approximately SAR1.285 trillion, increasing to around SAR1.429 trillion by 2027.

The statement highlighted that, due to ongoing economic developments and various financial initiatives, Saudi Arabia expects a budget deficit of about 2.3% of GDP for the fiscal year 2025. This deficit is part of efforts to improve stability and sustainability in the state budget.

It noted growth in GDP, primarily driven by non-oil sectors, which have bolstered industries like tourism, entertainment, transportation, logistics, and manufacturing.

This growth has improved quality of life, supported the private sector, and lowered unemployment to historic lows, positively impacting forecasts from international organizations and credit rating agencies.

For 2024, the report projects a real GDP growth rate of 0.8%, with non-oil sectors expected to grow around 3.7%.

Recent drops in interest rates are likely to boost demand and further support economic growth. Preliminary estimates also suggest that inflation could reach about 1.7% by the end of 2024.



The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)

Syria faces significant challenges as discussions intensify about the post-Bashar al-Assad era, particularly in securing the necessary revenues for the Syrian interim government to meet the country’s needs and ensure its sustainability. The widespread destruction of the economy and infrastructure poses a dual challenge: rebuilding the nation while stimulating economic activity and ensuring sufficient financial resources for governance.

Currently, the interim government relies heavily on international and regional support during the transitional phase. Donor countries are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to help rebuild institutions and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.

However, as the country transitions, external support alone will not suffice. The government must identify sustainable revenue sources, such as managing natural resources, imposing taxes, and encouraging foreign investments.

Opportunities from the Syrian Diaspora

The Syrian diaspora is seen as a significant economic resource, contributing through remittances or involvement in reconstruction projects. However, realizing these opportunities requires the establishment of strong, transparent institutions, effective resource management, and a clear strategic plan to rebuild trust with both local and international communities.

Securing revenues for the interim government is not merely a financial challenge but also a test of its ability to lead Syria toward stability and prosperity.

Securing Economic Resources

Nasser Zuhair, head of the Economic and Diplomatic Affairs Unit at the European Policy Organization, stated that the interim government, currently led by Mohammed al-Bashir, may replicate its revenue-generating models from Idlib. Resources in Idlib were drawn from temporary measures that are insufficient for sustaining a national economy like Syria’s.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zuhair explained that these resources included taxation, fuel trade with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled areas, international aid for displaced persons in Idlib, remittances from the Syrian diaspora, and cross-border trade facilitated by Turkiye.

“The interim government believes that sanctions relief is a matter of months, after which it can begin to establish a sustainable economy. For now, it will rely on the same resources and strategies used in Idlib and other controlled areas,” Zuhair added.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the former regime’s reliance on illicit revenues, such as drug trafficking and Captagon production—estimated to account for 25% of government revenues—the interim government has several potential avenues for generating revenue.

International Aid

Zuhair emphasized that cross-border humanitarian aid indirectly supports local economies. “The current government understands that international and regional aid will be substantial in the coming period, particularly for refugee repatriation and infrastructure development,” he noted.

He added that efforts to secure funding from the Brussels Conference, which allocates about $7 billion annually to support Syria, will be critical. Strengthening ties with regional and European countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, and the UK, is also a priority. However, securing such aid depends on establishing a political framework where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) does not dominate governance.

He further noted that international and regional support will likely remain a key revenue source for the interim government, including humanitarian and developmental aid from organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank.

Taxes and Tariffs

Zuhair highlighted taxes and tariffs as essential components of the government’s revenue strategy. This includes taxing local economic activities, customs duties on cross-border trade, and fair taxes on merchants and industrialists in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo.

“The government can also impose income, corporate, and property taxes while improving border management to maximize revenue from customs and tariffs,” he added.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Syria’s vast and fertile agricultural lands present an opportunity for revenue generation, Zuhair underlined, explaining that taxes on agricultural products could contribute to state income. However, this sector faces logistical challenges and high production costs. By directing the agricultural sector toward self-sufficiency, the government could reduce dependence on imports and create surplus revenue, he remarked.

Additionally, managing natural resources such as oil and gas could provide a significant revenue stream if the government gains control over resource-rich areas like northeastern Syria, the official noted.

Reconstruction

Reconstruction presents another potential revenue source. International companies could be encouraged to invest in rebuilding efforts in exchange for fees or taxes. Public-private partnerships with local and foreign firms in sectors such as infrastructure and housing could also generate significant funds.

Remittances from the Diaspora

Zuhair stressed the importance of remittances from Syrians abroad, estimating that these transfers could reach $2 billion annually by 2025. Encouraging the diaspora to send funds to support family members and rebuild properties will be a key priority for the government.

Domestic Investments

The interim government has shown its ability to attract domestic investments in real estate, industry, commerce, and agriculture, despite international sanctions. According to Zuhair, leveraging Türkiye as an international gateway, the government could expand this model across Syria, taking advantage of the challenging economic conditions left by the previous regime to draw reasonable investments in its first year.

Tourism and Small Businesses

Revitalizing the tourism sector could directly contribute to revenue, he added, noting that restoring historical and cultural sites, once security and stability are achieved, will attract visitors and generate income.

In addition, encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises will help revive the economy and create jobs, Zuhair emphasized, pointing that supporting manufacturing industries could provide a sustainable revenue stream.