Gold Retreats as Dollar Firms ahead of Key US Economic Data

Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)
Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)
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Gold Retreats as Dollar Firms ahead of Key US Economic Data

Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)
Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)

Gold extended declines on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar, while investors were cautious ahead of key US economic data that might provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,645.39 per ounce by 0812 GMT.

US gold futures edged 0.2% lower to $2,665.60.

The dollar hit a one-month high, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders.

Gold is consolidating at this point but prices will likely retest an all-time high of $2,685 as charts show persistent strong upward trends, said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central, according to Reuters.

Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the US non-farm payroll data expected on Friday.

Data on Wednesday showed US private payrolls increased more than expected in September - further evidence that labour market conditions were not deteriorating.

Expectations of another 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's November meeting have dipped, with markets currently pricing in a 36% chance, down from 49% last week, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil.

"Middle East tensions and US elections will continue supporting bullion in the longer term... In the short-term, some funds might shift to oil from gold since oil is doing better," Lan said.

Israel bombed central Beirut, killing at least six, after its forces suffered the deadliest day on the Lebanese front in a year of clashes against Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah.

Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month peak in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.

Spot silver fell 1.2% to $31.49, platinum shed about 1% to $992.10 and palladium lost 2.2% to $992.93.



Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations
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Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Turkish annual inflation fell to 49.38% in September while the monthly rate was much higher than expected at nearly 3%, setting the stage for later than expected interest rate cuts by the central bank.

At 50%, the central bank's policy rate is now higher than the annual consumer price index (CPI) for the first time since 2021, marking a milestone in an aggressive tightening cycle meant to correct years of easy money and soaring prices.

But after prices came in higher than expected last month, boosted in part by education-related costs, some analysts said the bank was unlikely to be able to ease policy until December at the earliest and possibly not until next year.

The "data makes an interest rate cut this year look very unlikely to us," said Capital Economics in a note.

Month-on-month inflation was 2.97%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, above a Reuters poll forecast of 2.2%. Annual CPI was also higher than the poll forecast of 48.3%.

In August, monthly CPI was 2.47%, with the annual rate at 51.97%. The central bank is closely watching the monthly rate for signals of when to begin an easing cycle, though it has only dipped below 2% once this year, in June.

Last month, a Reuters poll showed a growing minority of analysts expecting a first cut next year, with the consensus settled around November and expectations of at least 20 points of easing by the end of 2025.

But Haluk Burumcekci, founding partner at Burumcekci Consulting, said the September data did not signal an imminent cut. Even if October inflation is in line with the central bank's guidance, he said, "it may not be sufficient" for a November cut.

-TIGHT POLICY

The domestic producer price index was up 1.37% month-on-month in September for an annual rise of 33.09%, the data showed.

The lira was slightly firmer at 34.18 against the dollar.

Annual inflation in September was driven by a 97.9% rise in housing prices, with education prices up 93.59%. The key food and non-alcoholic drinks sector prices were up 43.72%, below the overall level.

Last month the central bank held rates steady at 50% for a sixth straight month, saying it remained highly attentive to inflation risks. But it removed a reference to potential tightening, seen as a first signal that easing would eventually come.

The bank, which has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points since June last year, sees inflation falling to 38% at the end of this year and 14% next. In the medium term programme, the government sees end-2024 inflation of 41.5%.