Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Business activity in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector accelerated to a four-month high in September, driven by strong demand, which led to faster growth in new orders. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), adjusted for seasonal factors, rose to 56.3 points from 54.8 in August, marking the highest reading since May and further distancing itself from the 50.0 level that indicates growth.

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders, alongside challenges in supply. The improvement in business conditions contributed to a significant rise in employment opportunities, although difficulties in finding skilled workers led to a shortage in production capacity.

At the same time, concerns over increasing competition caused a decline in future output expectations. According to the PMI statement, inventories of production inputs remained in good condition, which encouraged some companies to reduce their purchasing efforts.

Growth was strong overall and widespread across all non-oil sectors under study. Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Senior Economist at Riyad Bank, said that the rise in Saudi Arabia's PMI points to a notable acceleration in the growth of the non-oil private sector, primarily driven by increased production and new orders, reflecting the sector’s expansionary activity.

Al-Ghaith added that companies responded to the rise in domestic demand, which plays a crucial role in reducing the Kingdom's reliance on oil revenues. The upward trend also indicates improved business confidence, pointing to a healthy environment for increased investment, job creation, and overall economic stability.

He emphasized that this growth in the non-oil sector is particularly important given the current context of reduced oil production and falling global oil prices. With oil revenues under pressure, the strong performance of the non-oil private sector acts as a buffer, helping mitigate the potential impact on the country's economic conditions.

Al-Ghaith continued, noting that diversifying income sources is essential to maintaining growth amid the volatility of oil markets. He explained that increased production levels not only enhance the competitiveness of Saudi companies but also encourage developments aimed at expanding the private sector's participation in the economy.

This shift, he said, provides a more stable foundation for long-term growth, making the economy less susceptible to oil price fluctuations.



Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations
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Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Türkiye Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Turkish annual inflation fell to 49.38% in September while the monthly rate was much higher than expected at nearly 3%, setting the stage for later than expected interest rate cuts by the central bank.

At 50%, the central bank's policy rate is now higher than the annual consumer price index (CPI) for the first time since 2021, marking a milestone in an aggressive tightening cycle meant to correct years of easy money and soaring prices.

But after prices came in higher than expected last month, boosted in part by education-related costs, some analysts said the bank was unlikely to be able to ease policy until December at the earliest and possibly not until next year.

The "data makes an interest rate cut this year look very unlikely to us," said Capital Economics in a note.

Month-on-month inflation was 2.97%, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, above a Reuters poll forecast of 2.2%. Annual CPI was also higher than the poll forecast of 48.3%.

In August, monthly CPI was 2.47%, with the annual rate at 51.97%. The central bank is closely watching the monthly rate for signals of when to begin an easing cycle, though it has only dipped below 2% once this year, in June.

Last month, a Reuters poll showed a growing minority of analysts expecting a first cut next year, with the consensus settled around November and expectations of at least 20 points of easing by the end of 2025.

But Haluk Burumcekci, founding partner at Burumcekci Consulting, said the September data did not signal an imminent cut. Even if October inflation is in line with the central bank's guidance, he said, "it may not be sufficient" for a November cut.

-TIGHT POLICY

The domestic producer price index was up 1.37% month-on-month in September for an annual rise of 33.09%, the data showed.

The lira was slightly firmer at 34.18 against the dollar.

Annual inflation in September was driven by a 97.9% rise in housing prices, with education prices up 93.59%. The key food and non-alcoholic drinks sector prices were up 43.72%, below the overall level.

Last month the central bank held rates steady at 50% for a sixth straight month, saying it remained highly attentive to inflation risks. But it removed a reference to potential tightening, seen as a first signal that easing would eventually come.

The bank, which has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points since June last year, sees inflation falling to 38% at the end of this year and 14% next. In the medium term programme, the government sees end-2024 inflation of 41.5%.