Iran's crude export loadings have fallen sharply, according to observed and estimated tanker loadings, as Tehran braces for a potential strike on the country's key oil infrastructure as part of an Israeli retaliation that could impact Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Iran's last crude export cargo was estimated to have loaded on Oct. 4 with only one other cargo seen since Sept. 29, when the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.
Although many Iranian crude exports are shipped in 'dark' tankers not transmitting GPS location signals, CAS estimates that Iran's crude exports slumped to 237,000 b/d in the week to Oct. 6, the lowest weekly total in at least two years.
Iran normally ships 7-10 crude cargoes each week with export flows averaging 1.7 million b/d so far this year, up from 1.1 million b/d in 2022, according to the data.
The export slowdown from Iran comes after satellite images circulated on social media Oct. 3 appearing to show tankers leaving Kharg Island, Iran's top crude terminal which handles about 90% of its exports. Traders speculated that Iran was keen to move unladen tankers away from their anchorages at Kharg Island to avoid damage from a potential Israeli strike. Exports from Kharg Island may have now resumed, however, with a 657,000-barrel cargo of Iranian crude lifted there on Oct 4, the CAS data shows.
Fears of a major escalation in the conflict hitting regional oil supplies were sparked by US President Joe Biden on Oct. 3 when he said the US was discussing potential attacks on Iranian oil facilities with Israel. Iran's military head responded saying Tehran would hit back harder at Israel with a "stronger response," if attacked.
