Oil Heads for Weekly Climb on Potential Mideast Supply Disruption

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Heads for Weekly Climb on Potential Mideast Supply Disruption

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices softened on Friday but were set for a second weekly gain as investors weighed the impact of hurricane damage on US demand against any broad supply disruption if Israel attacks Iranian oil sites.

Brent crude oil futures were down 73 cents, or 0.9%, at $78.67 a barrel by 1208 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 71 cents, also 0.9%, to $75.14 per barrel.

For the week, both benchmarks were headed for gains, Reuters reported.

"A potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil... infrastructure poses a binary outcome for oil markets, as it could reduce the elevated spare capacity overhang on prices while inducing a significant geopolitical risk premium, which explains the recent surge in oil market volatility," Barclays said in a client note.

Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said reservations over high crude inventories and a possibly more gradual monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve have put the recent rally on hold.

In the US, Hurricane Milton plowed into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday after cutting a destructive path across Florida, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power. The destruction could dampen fuel consumption in some areas of the world's largest oil producer and consumer.

Crude benchmarks spiked this month after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, raising the prospect of retaliation against Iranian oil facilities. Israel has yet to respond, and crude benchmarks have eased and remained relatively flat through the week.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said that any strike against Iran would be "lethal, precise and surprising".



WTO: Global Trade Could Climb 3% in 2025 if MidEast Conflicts Contained

FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)
FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)
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WTO: Global Trade Could Climb 3% in 2025 if MidEast Conflicts Contained

FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)
FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)

The World Trade Organization on Thursday nudged up its forecast for global trade volumes this year and said a further pick up to 3% growth was likely in 2025, assuming Middle East conflicts are kept in check.
Global trade recovered this year from a 2023 slump driven by high inflation and rising interest rates, the WTO report said. In April, the global trade watchdog forecast a 2.6% increase in volumes, which it revised up on Thursday to 2.7%, Reuters reported.
"We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in a statement.
"The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes."
Israel's blitz against Lebanon's Hezbollah in recent weeks, following a year-long war against Hamas in Gaza, has stoked fears of an inexorable slide towards a pan-Middle Eastern war.
The WTO also cited diverging monetary policies among major economies as another downside risk for the forecasts. This "could lead to financial volatility and shifts in capital flows as central banks bring down interest rates," the report said, adding that this would make debt servicing more challenging for poorer countries.
"There is also some limited upside potential to the forecast if interest rate cuts in advanced economies stimulate stronger than expected growth without reigniting inflation," the WTO said.