Gold Gains as Dollar off 2-month Highs on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
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Gold Gains as Dollar off 2-month Highs on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk

Gold extended gains after the release of the latest data on US producer prices on Friday, as the US dollar pulled back from two-month highs on heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,647.55 per ounce by 1316 GMT. US gold futures gained about 1% to $2,665.

US producer prices were unchanged in September, pointing to a still-favorable inflation outlook and supporting views that the Fed would cut interest rates again next month.

"After stronger-than-expected US jobs data and higher-than-expected inflation data, the market is a bit split on how many rate cuts we will see from the Fed over the coming months," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, Reuters reported.

Data on Thursday showed US consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years.

Slowly cooling inflation and a US job market that remains strong but at the risk of deteriorating give a green light for more interest-rate cuts in coming months, Fed policymakers indicated on Thursday.

The CME FedWatch tool shows markets currently see an 84.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in November and a 15.6% probability of the Fed keeping rates on hold.

"Gold prices are likely to stay volatile in the short term, but we look for higher prices as we look for further rate cuts by the Fed," Staunovo said.

Gold is on track for its second straight week of declines after prices retreated from a record high of $2,685.42 hit last month.

Physical gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festival season attracted some jewellery buying.

Spot silver rose 0.7% to $31.41 per ounce and platinum climbed 1.2% to $979.20. Both metals were headed for weekly declines.

Palladium firmed 0.2% at $1,071 and was up nearly 6% for the week.



WTO: Global Trade Could Climb 3% in 2025 if MidEast Conflicts Contained

FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)
FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)
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WTO: Global Trade Could Climb 3% in 2025 if MidEast Conflicts Contained

FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)
FILE - Containers are piled up in the harbor in Hamburg, Germany, Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, file)

The World Trade Organization on Thursday nudged up its forecast for global trade volumes this year and said a further pick up to 3% growth was likely in 2025, assuming Middle East conflicts are kept in check.
Global trade recovered this year from a 2023 slump driven by high inflation and rising interest rates, the WTO report said. In April, the global trade watchdog forecast a 2.6% increase in volumes, which it revised up on Thursday to 2.7%, Reuters reported.
"We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in a statement.
"The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes."
Israel's blitz against Lebanon's Hezbollah in recent weeks, following a year-long war against Hamas in Gaza, has stoked fears of an inexorable slide towards a pan-Middle Eastern war.
The WTO also cited diverging monetary policies among major economies as another downside risk for the forecasts. This "could lead to financial volatility and shifts in capital flows as central banks bring down interest rates," the report said, adding that this would make debt servicing more challenging for poorer countries.
"There is also some limited upside potential to the forecast if interest rate cuts in advanced economies stimulate stronger than expected growth without reigniting inflation," the WTO said.