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Gold Gains as Dollar off 2-month Highs on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
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Gold Gains as Dollar off 2-month Highs on Fed Rate Cut Expectations

A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
A view shows ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold in a workroom during production at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk

Gold extended gains after the release of the latest data on US producer prices on Friday, as the US dollar pulled back from two-month highs on heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,647.55 per ounce by 1316 GMT. US gold futures gained about 1% to $2,665.

US producer prices were unchanged in September, pointing to a still-favorable inflation outlook and supporting views that the Fed would cut interest rates again next month.

"After stronger-than-expected US jobs data and higher-than-expected inflation data, the market is a bit split on how many rate cuts we will see from the Fed over the coming months," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, Reuters reported.

Data on Thursday showed US consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years.

Slowly cooling inflation and a US job market that remains strong but at the risk of deteriorating give a green light for more interest-rate cuts in coming months, Fed policymakers indicated on Thursday.

The CME FedWatch tool shows markets currently see an 84.4% chance of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in November and a 15.6% probability of the Fed keeping rates on hold.

"Gold prices are likely to stay volatile in the short term, but we look for higher prices as we look for further rate cuts by the Fed," Staunovo said.

Gold is on track for its second straight week of declines after prices retreated from a record high of $2,685.42 hit last month.

Physical gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festival season attracted some jewellery buying.

Spot silver rose 0.7% to $31.41 per ounce and platinum climbed 1.2% to $979.20. Both metals were headed for weekly declines.

Palladium firmed 0.2% at $1,071 and was up nearly 6% for the week.

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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)

The American energy giant Chevron, which operates the Leviathan field off the Mediterranean coast of Israel, has decided to suspend work on laying an underwater pipeline, part of its third pipeline project, due to the escalating conflict and fears of potential missile strikes. This follows the earlier closure of the Tamar and Leviathan gas platforms as a “precautionary measure” during the Iranian attack on Israel on Oct. 1.

These developments came as the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Leviathan field, located 130 kilometers off the coast of Haifa, was the target of a missile barrage fired by Hezbollah on Wednesday morning at Mount Carmel and Haifa. Chevron subsequently activated “special procedures,” stating that it was dealing with an operational incident on the drilling platform.

During last week’s Iranian missile attack, Yedioth Ahronoth noted that NewMed Energy, a partner in the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields (the latter located about 19 kilometers off the Gaza Strip coast), informed the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Chevron’s decision to temporarily shut down the Leviathan field for several hours.

“In light of the latest security developments and based on the system’s operational considerations, the operator occasionally halts production from the Leviathan reservoir for certain periods,” NewMed Energy, which holds a 45.3% stake in Leviathan, stated to the stock exchange.

Chevron holds a 39.6% stake in Leviathan, while Ratio Energies owns 15% of the project. Chevron also has a 15% stake in Tamar.

Leviathan’s partners approved a $429 million investment on Aug. 1 to launch the preliminary engineering design phase to increase Leviathan’s gas export capacity from the Mediterranean Sea field to 21 billion cubic meters annually.

NewMed Energy stated that Chevron had informed the partners that plans for laying the underwater pipeline have been postponed until Apr. 2025—initially scheduled to begin in the second half of 2025—due to the deteriorating security situation. The delay is expected to be at least six months, affecting next year’s projected cash flow.

Currently, gas from the platform is transported to the shore and integrated into Israel’s national grid, where it is distributed to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The Leviathan field was discovered in 2010 by NewMed Energy, Chevron (then known as Noble Energy), and Ratio. Natural gas production from Leviathan began on December 31, 2019, and since then, it has become a key source of gas for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The third pipeline project was initiated by the Leviathan partners in July 2023, aimed at boosting Leviathan’s annual production capacity from 12 billion cubic meters to around 21 billion cubic meters. This increase is intended to meet growing local demand and export to neighboring countries and international markets, according to NewMed Energy.

Israel continues to export gas through pipelines from Leviathan and Tamar to Jordan and Egypt. Israeli exports to Egypt rose from 4.9 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 6.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, while sales to Jordan remained steady year-on-year at 2.7 billion cubic meters. In the second quarter of this year, Leviathan’s total gas production reached 2.8 billion cubic meters, with exports to Egypt rising by 12.5% to 1.8 billion cubic meters during the same period, while 0.6 billion cubic meters flowed to Jordan, according to Energy Intelligence.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the potential global market impact of disruptions at Leviathan and Tamar could reduce global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply by nearly 9 billion cubic meters annually, or 1.7% of global LNG supplies, according to a report by Energy Intelligence.