China’s Deflationary Pressures Build in Sept, Consumer Inflation Cools

 People arrive at the Beijing railway station in Beijing on October 10, 2024. (AFP)
People arrive at the Beijing railway station in Beijing on October 10, 2024. (AFP)
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China’s Deflationary Pressures Build in Sept, Consumer Inflation Cools

 People arrive at the Beijing railway station in Beijing on October 10, 2024. (AFP)
People arrive at the Beijing railway station in Beijing on October 10, 2024. (AFP)

China's consumer inflation unexpectedly eased in September, while producer price deflation deepened, heightening pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures quickly to revive flagging demand and shaky economic activity.

Finance Minister Lan Foan told a news conference on Saturday there will be more "counter-cyclical measures" this year, but officials did not provide details on the size of fiscal stimulus being prepared, which investors hope will ease deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% from a year earlier last month, against a 0.6% rise in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Sunday, missing a 0.6% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

The producer price index (PPI) fell at the fastest pace in six months, down 2.8% year-on-year in September, versus a 1.8% decline the previous month and below an expected 2.5% decline.

Chinese authorities have stepped up stimulus efforts in recent weeks to spur demand and help meet an around 5.0% economic growth target for this year, though some analysts say the moves may only offer temporary relief for the economy and stronger measures are needed soon.

The central bank in late September announced the most aggressive monetary support measures since the COVID-19 pandemic, including numerous steps to help pull the property sector out of a severe, multi-year slump, including mortgage rate cuts.

With little new from Saturday's Ministry of Finance briefing, some analysts are now hoping that a meeting of China's parliament expected in coming weeks will unveil more specific proposals.

However, many China watchers say Beijing also needs to firmly address more deeply-rooted structural issues such as overcapacity and sluggish consumption.

Excessive domestic investment and weak demand have pushed down prices and forced companies to reduce wages or fire workers to cut costs.

CPI was unchanged month-on-month, versus a 0.4% gain in August and below an estimated 0.4% increase.

Food prices perked up 3.3% on-year in September compared with a 2.8% rise in August, while non-food prices was down 0.2%, reversing 0.2% uptick in August.

Among non-food items, the decline in energy prices deepened, and tourism prices switched to down from up with declines in airfares and hotel accommodation prices widening, said the NBS in an accompanying statement.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, stood at 0.1%, down from 0.3% in August, also hinting that deflation pressures were mounting.



Lebanon's Bonds Soar as Traders Place Counterintuitive Bets

The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)
The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)
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Lebanon's Bonds Soar as Traders Place Counterintuitive Bets

The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)
The Lebanese national flag flutters in Beirut, Lebanon, August 18, 2020. (Reuters)

Israel's airstrikes in Lebanon are inflicting destruction that could set its economy back by years.

But the defaulted country's bonds have climbed to two-year highs, gaining a whopping 44% since late September, as traders snap them up for pennies on the dollar.

Investors reckon the weakening of Hezbollah could precipitate a shake-up of Lebanon's fractured political system and potentially an economic plan to pull the country out of default, according to Reuters.

"The reason bonds have rallied is that the market thinks that the Lebanese political class might finally be able to agree a political path forward and an economic reform plan without Hezbollah in the picture," said Anthony Symond at abrdn.

"This would pave the way for the Eurobonds to eventually be restructured."

The jump still leaves Lebanon's dollar bond maturing in 2025 trading at a paltry 8.5 cents on the dollar - a fraction of the 70-cent level at which bonds are considered distressed.

Lebanon tumbled into default in the spring of 2020 after the country's financial system plunged into a deep economic crisis in 2019. With an effectively non-functioning government wracked by discord and corruption, few expect a debt deal anytime soon.

"Lebanese bonds started getting bids after the death of Nasrallah," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager with Neuberger Berman, referring to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whose death was announced on Sept. 28.

"Lebanon was in the 'it could not get worse' category," said Nazli, adding that the latest events could spark change.

Bruno Gennari, emerging markets strategist with KNG Securities, said rumors that Washington could use Hezbollah setbacks to push Lebanon to appoint its first president in two years had given hope.

"Is all about Hezbollah getting weaker," he said.

S&P Global Ratings said last week Israel's military action in Lebanon "put severe pressure" on Lebanon's already battered economy, and would "further delay economic and financial reforms, and the longer-term recovery of fiscal and external accounts."

S&P has a selective default rating on Lebanon's foreign currency debt.

Given their incredibly low prices, any glimmers of good news could boost Lebanon's bonds again, Nazli said

"If you see any headline on a presidential election, or even just a schedule for one - that could be a sign that things are moving forward," he said.