China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Saudi Real Estate Transactions Surpass $533 Billion in 2024

Riyadh’s Expo 2030 logo adorns the capital’s sky (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Riyadh’s Expo 2030 logo adorns the capital’s sky (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Saudi Real Estate Transactions Surpass $533 Billion in 2024

Riyadh’s Expo 2030 logo adorns the capital’s sky (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Riyadh’s Expo 2030 logo adorns the capital’s sky (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Real estate transactions in Saudi Arabia exceeded $533 billion (SAR 2.5 trillion) in 2024, covering over 622,000 deals and spanning approximately 5.8 billion square meters. More than 520,000 properties were traded, according to data from the Real Estate Exchange managed by the Saudi Ministry of Justice.

These figures underscore the strength of Saudi Arabia’s real estate market as a primary driver of its economy. Experts credit this growth to the Kingdom’s broader economic boom and its success in hosting major global events. The market is expected to maintain its momentum in 2025 and beyond, attracting further investment and large-scale projects, with sustainability and innovation driving continued growth.

Standard & Poor’s predicts the sector’s contribution to Saudi Arabia’s GDP will rise to 10% by 2030, up from 5.9% today. This growth is bolstered by significant increases in real estate financing.

In November, Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Majid Al-Hogail noted that financing had grown 300% in five years, reaching SAR 800 billion in 2024, compared to SAR 200 billion in 2018.

Real estate expert Ahmed Al-Faqih described the 2024 surge in transaction values and volumes as expected, given various incentives for investors, developers, and individuals. He highlighted the increased attractiveness of the market, driven by Saudi Arabia’s success in hosting major international events across economic, cultural, and sports sectors. This has positioned the Kingdom as a premier destination for domestic, regional, and international investments.

For his part, real estate marketer Abdullah Al-Mousa noted that the record numbers reflect growing investor confidence in the Saudi market, bolstered by Vision 2030, supportive regulations, and urban expansion through mega-projects like NEOM and Qiddiya. These initiatives have strengthened economic growth and improved real estate infrastructure.

Al-Mousa also pointed to rising local and international demand for residential and commercial properties, the growing middle class, and the adoption of innovative technologies such as virtual tours and smart property evaluations. These advancements have enhanced transparency and accelerated decision-making in the real estate sector.

Additionally, regulatory reforms and the development of economic zones will further attract international investments, according to the expert. These factors are expected to stabilize property prices in certain areas, contributing to a sustainable market and increasing its appeal.

Al-Mousa concluded that Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector has established itself as a vital economic engine. With ongoing government investment and technological innovation, the market is poised to sustain its momentum, attracting more investment opportunities in 2025 and beyond, with sustainability and innovation remaining key drivers of growth.