China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Saudi Mortgage Loans Reach Record Highs

The Cityscape International Real Estate Exhibition 2024 in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Cityscape International Real Estate Exhibition 2024 in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Mortgage Loans Reach Record Highs

The Cityscape International Real Estate Exhibition 2024 in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Cityscape International Real Estate Exhibition 2024 in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Mortgage lending provided by financing companies has reached an all-time high by the end of the third quarter of 2024 amid developments in Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector.

According to data from the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), the companies issued approximately SAR 28 billion ($7.4 billion) in real estate loans.

The data indicates that corporate borrowers accounted for SAR 5 billion, while individuals received SAR 23 billion. Additionally, financing companies in the Kingdom reported their highest net income since 2022 during the third quarter, amounting to SAR 768 million ($204.5 million).

Mortgage loans from commercial banks also rose for both individuals and companies, recording a 13% year-on-year increase to SAR 846.48 billion ($225 billion) by the end of Q3, compared to SAR 747 billion ($199 billion) during the same period in 2023. Of this, individual loans comprised 77.6% of the total, amounting to SAR 657 billion—an 11% annual increase—while corporate loans represented 22.4%, growing by 22%.

Commenting on the market’s growth, Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Director of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the Saudi real estate market is experiencing unprecedented momentum, driven by a significant increase in mortgage lending to individuals by financing companies. Last year witnessed record growth in this type of lending.”

Al-Farraj predicts the upward trend in the mortgage financing market will continue into 2025, with a projected 12% growth. He attributes this to reduced interest rates, rapid economic growth, rising purchasing power, increased consumer confidence, successful government housing policies, a broader variety of real estate products, and growing demand for housing. He also anticipates that this growth will stimulate economic activity and increase demand for various goods and services.

The US Federal Reserve has played a significant role in the global economic climate by cutting interest rates three consecutive times between September and December 2024, reducing them by approximately 100 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

Saudi Arabia has placed considerable emphasis on the mortgage market to enhance liquidity in the real estate financing sector. Several agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoUs) have been signed to develop and strengthen this vital sector.

The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC), wholly owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), recently signed an MoU with Hassana Investment Company to develop the market, attract local and international investors, and expand the secondary real estate market.

Additionally, SRC signed an agreement with US-based BlackRock to enhance mortgage financing programs in the Kingdom and increase institutional participation in capital markets. In November, it entered an MoU with King Street, a capital management firm, to activate initiatives aimed at creating a sustainable ecosystem for mortgage refinancing.