China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
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China's Exports Miss forecasts as Lone Bright Spot Fades

Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
Employees work on solar photovoltaic modules that will be exported at a factory in Lianyungang, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on January 4, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

China's export growth slowed sharply in September while imports also unexpectedly decelerated, undershooting forecasts by big margins and suggesting manufacturers are slashing prices to move inventory ahead of tariffs from several trade partners.

Last month, export momentum had been one bright spot for the Chinese economy that has struggled to gain traction due to weak domestic demand and a property market debt crisis, adding to the urgency for stronger stimulus.

Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy grew 2.4% year-on-year last month, the slowest pace since April, customs data showed on Monday, missing a forecast 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll of economists and a 8.7% rise in August.

Imports edged up 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.9% rise and softer than 0.5% growth previously.

The weak data does not bode well for exports in coming months as just under a third of China's purchases are parts for re-export, particularly in the electronics sector.

The European Commission on Oct. 4 saw its motion to impose additional duties on electric vehicles built in China of up to 45% pass in a divided vote of EU member states, joining the US and Canada in tightening trade measures against China.

China's overall trade surplus narrowed to $81.71 billion in September from $91.02 billion in August and missed a forecast of $89.80 billion.

China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed to $33.33 billion in September from $33.81 billion in August, customs data showed on Monday.

Manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September, according to a recent factory owners' confidence survey, with new export orders falling to their worst in seven months.

Analysts have attributed previous months' strong export performance to factory owners slashing prices to find buyers.

Analysts anticipate it will take a long time to restore consumer and business confidence and get the $19 trillion economy on a more solid footing. A housing market recovery, in particular, could be a long way off.

That said, China's iron ore imports rose 2.9% last month year-on-year, partly on hopes for improved demand over September and October, the peak construction season, while the country's copper imports climbed from a month prior too.

New bank lending in China missed forecasts in September, separate data released by the People's Bank of China showed, although household loans, including mortgages, rose to 500 billion yuan in September from 190 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters' calculations.



Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports Hit Historic High of SAR515 Billion in 2024

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia's Non-Oil Exports Hit Historic High of SAR515 Billion in 2024

A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A night view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's non-oil exports reached an unprecedented SAR515 billion in 2024, marking the highest value in the Kingdom's history. This achievement represents a significant 13% increase compared to the previous year and an impressive growth of over 113% since the launch of Vision 2030.

The robust growth spanned all export sectors. Merchandise exports climbed to SAR217 billion (+4%), fueled by respective increases of 2% and 9% in petrochemical and non-petrochemical exports, reported the Saudi Press Agency on Saturday.

Re-exports surged to SAR90 billion, demonstrating a remarkable 205% growth since the inception of Vision 2030. Services exports also reached an all-time high of SAR207 billion, exhibiting a 14% year-on-year increase and a substantial 220% rise since Vision 2030's announcement.

Saudi Export Development Authority CEO Abdulrahman Althukair attributed this historic non-oil export performance to the Kingdom's sustained efforts in economic diversification and enhancing the competitiveness of national products.

He highlighted the authority's commitment to facilitating national companies' access to new markets and bolstering their export capabilities through comprehensive programs encompassing training, empowerment, promotion, and advisory services. This aligns with Vision 2030's goals to establish a thriving economy where non-oil exports are a key driver of sustainable growth.

In 2024, petrochemical commodity exports amounted to SAR149 billion, constituting 68% of total commodity exports, and registered a 2% increase in value and weight compared to the previous year.

Non-petrochemical commodity exports achieved a remarkable SAR69 billion (32% of total commodity exports), the highest value in recent years. This included record export figures for over 205 Saudi products, such as food and dairy products, minerals, and building materials. Fertilizer exports also demonstrated exceptional growth, with product weight reaching a historic peak in 2024, increasing by 5% year-on-year, and more than fivefold in value since the launch of Vision 2030.

The Kingdom's re-export sector also delivered a historic performance in 2024, reaching SAR90 billion, a 205% increase compared to 2016, a 42% rise year-on-year, and a 114% increase compared to 2019. This was primarily driven by the re-export of mobile phones, which reached a record value of SAR25 billion, more than doubling their 2023 value. The operation of the integrated logistics zone at King Khalid International Airport played a significant role in this remarkable growth by enhancing supply chain efficiency and facilitating re-export operations.

Machinery, automated devices, transportation equipment, and parts thereof constituted 84% of total re-exports in 2024. Re-exports of aircraft parts also experienced substantial growth, increasing from SAR1.6 billion in 2022 to over SAR2 billion in 2024.

In 2024, the Kingdom exported goods, re-exports, and services to over 180 countries, with 37 countries registering record import values, including the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Algeria, Spain, France, Poland, Libya, and Syria. Other countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Morocco, Pakistan, Nigeria, Germany, Greece, and Bulgaria, also achieved record import volumes.

Services exports reached a record SAR207 billion in 2024, marking a 14% year-on-year increase and a 220% rise since 2016. The travel and tourism sector was a key driver, increasing by 270% since 2016. In 2024, Saudi Arabia welcomed approximately 30 million international tourists, contributing to a 150% increase in travel exports compared to 2019, representing 74% of total service exports.

The Kingdom also recorded a 69% increase in international tourist numbers compared to pre-pandemic levels and a 148% increase in tourism revenues compared to 2019. Saudi Arabia led the G20 in tourist number growth, with a 73% growth rate during the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2019. The transportation sector contributed 12% of total service exports, achieving a 5% year-on-year growth.