IMF Forecasts Bahrain’s Economy to Grow by 3% in 2024

Bahrain's capital Manama. Reuters file photo
Bahrain's capital Manama. Reuters file photo
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IMF Forecasts Bahrain’s Economy to Grow by 3% in 2024

Bahrain's capital Manama. Reuters file photo
Bahrain's capital Manama. Reuters file photo

Bahrain’s economy is on track for growth, with gross domestic product expected to expand by 3 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

Following its 2024 Article IV consultation, the IMF said Bahrain’s showed strong economic performance in 2023, achieving a 3 percent growth rate.

It projected that inflation, which fell to a low of 0.1 percent in 2023, will rise to 1.2 percent this year and gradually stabilize at 2 percent over the medium term.

According to the IMF, government debt surged to 123 percent of GDP, a 12 percentage point increase.

“To put government debt to GDP onto a durable downward path, a multi-year and pre-committed fiscal consolidation and reform package is the policy priority,” said John Bluedorn, the IMF mission chief.

Bahrain’s economic diversification efforts are another key focus. The IMF acknowledged the progress made but urged further reforms to boost inclusive, sustainable growth. These include expanding programs to enhance human capital, addressing skill gaps, and improving access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises.



Türkiye's Central Bank Holds Rate at 50%, Warns on Inflation

People rest in a public park outdoors away from buildings following an earthquake in Malatya, southern Turkey, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (Burhan Karaduman/Dia Photo via AP)
People rest in a public park outdoors away from buildings following an earthquake in Malatya, southern Turkey, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (Burhan Karaduman/Dia Photo via AP)
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Türkiye's Central Bank Holds Rate at 50%, Warns on Inflation

People rest in a public park outdoors away from buildings following an earthquake in Malatya, southern Turkey, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (Burhan Karaduman/Dia Photo via AP)
People rest in a public park outdoors away from buildings following an earthquake in Malatya, southern Turkey, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (Burhan Karaduman/Dia Photo via AP)

Türkiye's central bank held interest rates at 50% on Thursday as expected but cautioned that recent data had lifted inflation uncertainty, in a hawkish signal ahead of an expected easing cycle in coming months.
"In September, the underlying trend of inflation posted a slight increase," the bank's policy committee said, adding: "the uncertainty regarding the pace of improvement in inflation has increased in light of incoming data."
According to Reuters, analysts said the message could reinforce the view that the bank will wait until around January to ease monetary policy, after a more than year-long effort to slay years of soaring inflation.
The last time the bank raised its main policy rate was in March, when it hiked by 500 basis points to round off an aggressive tightening cycle that started in June last year.
Since then, it has kept the one-week repo rate on hold. In a change of messaging last month, it began setting the stage for a rate cut by dropping a reference to potential further tightening.
Yet after monthly inflation was higher than expected at nearly 3% in September, a Reuters poll showed analysts expected the bank to wait until December or January to begin its anticipated easing cycle.
Nicholas Farr, economist at Capital Economics, said the bank signaled that the "slow pace of disinflation will prevent monetary easing this year.”
"It seems clear that the (central bank) – like us – doesn't think the conditions are in place for a monetary easing cycle to start very soon."
Annual inflation has dropped to 49.4% - below the policy rate for the first time in this cycle - from a peak of 75% in May.
The central bank is closely watching the monthly rate for signals of when to begin easing, though it has only dipped below 2% once this year, in June. It is also watching for high household inflation expectations to ease toward its targets.