Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance

Global credit ratings agency Fitch on Friday revised its outlook on Italy to 'positive' from 'stable', citing recent improvements in the fiscal performance of the euro zone's third largest economy and its commitment to EU budget regulations.
The upgrade to the outlook is a boost to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government and comes shortly after Rome reached an agreement with the European Commission on a seven-year budget adjustment, said Reuters.
"Italy's fiscal credibility has increased, and the 2025 budget underscores the government's commitment to EU fiscal rules," Fitch said in a statement.
The agency confirmed Italy's rating at 'BBB'.
In June, the Commission placed Italy and six other countries under a disciplinary procedure due to high budget deficits. Italy's 2023 shortfall came in at 7.2% of gross domestic product, the highest in the 20-nation euro zone.
However, last month the Italian government revised down its targets for the deficit this year and next, to 3.8% and 3.3% of GDP respectively, and said the deficit would fall below the EU’s 3% limit in 2026.
"The judgments of the ratings agencies are the result of the responsible actions of this government and they underscore Italy's credibility," Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in a statement after Fitch's announcement.
Earlier on Friday, S&P Global confirmed its rating on Italy at 'BBB' and left the outlook at 'stable'.
RISING DEBT
Despite the narrowing annual budget deficits, Italy's debt, proportionally the second highest in the euro zone, is forecast by the government to climb from 134.8% of gross domestic product last year to 137.8% in 2026, before gradually declining.
The Treasury says the projected increase is due to costly home renovation incentives adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, known as the Superbonus scheme.
The premium investors pay to hold Italian government bonds over top-rated German ones narrowed on Friday to around 116 basis points, the lowest level since end-2021.
Analysts said earlier this week that positive news from any of the ratings agencies due to review Italy could trigger a further narrowing of the yield spread against Germany.
Fitch said its revision to Italy's outlook was also driven by "signs of stronger potential growth and a more stable political context."
The Italian economy expanded by 0.7% in 2023, and most analysts expect a similar modest growth rate this year, slightly below the government's official 1% target.
Meloni, who took office two years ago, retains high approval ratings and opinion polls show her right-wing Brothers of Italy party is comfortably the largest in Italy, with popular support of almost 30%, up from the 26% it won at the 2022 election.
Italy faces further credit rating reviews by Moody's, DBRS and Scope Ratings over the next few weeks up to No. 29.

Egypt raised prices on a wide range of fuel products early on Friday, the petroleum ministry said, marking the third such increase this year.
Prices for diesel fuel, one of the most commonly used fuels in the country, were raised by 17% to 13.50 Egyptian pounds ($0.2779) per liter from 11.50 pounds.
Gasoline prices increased from 11% to 13% depending on the grade, with 80 octane gasoline rising to 13.75 Egyptian pounds, 92 octane to 15.25 pounds, and 95 octane to 17 pounds.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in July that prices of petroleum products will gradually increase until the end of 2025, adding that the government could no longer bear the burden of paying the subsidies on fuels amid increasing consumption.
But the government's fuel pricing committee, which typically convenes each quarter, said on Friday its next meeting will be held in six months.

Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance