Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance

Global credit ratings agency Fitch on Friday revised its outlook on Italy to 'positive' from 'stable', citing recent improvements in the fiscal performance of the euro zone's third largest economy and its commitment to EU budget regulations.
The upgrade to the outlook is a boost to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government and comes shortly after Rome reached an agreement with the European Commission on a seven-year budget adjustment, said Reuters.
"Italy's fiscal credibility has increased, and the 2025 budget underscores the government's commitment to EU fiscal rules," Fitch said in a statement.
The agency confirmed Italy's rating at 'BBB'.
In June, the Commission placed Italy and six other countries under a disciplinary procedure due to high budget deficits. Italy's 2023 shortfall came in at 7.2% of gross domestic product, the highest in the 20-nation euro zone.
However, last month the Italian government revised down its targets for the deficit this year and next, to 3.8% and 3.3% of GDP respectively, and said the deficit would fall below the EU’s 3% limit in 2026.
"The judgments of the ratings agencies are the result of the responsible actions of this government and they underscore Italy's credibility," Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in a statement after Fitch's announcement.
Earlier on Friday, S&P Global confirmed its rating on Italy at 'BBB' and left the outlook at 'stable'.
RISING DEBT
Despite the narrowing annual budget deficits, Italy's debt, proportionally the second highest in the euro zone, is forecast by the government to climb from 134.8% of gross domestic product last year to 137.8% in 2026, before gradually declining.
The Treasury says the projected increase is due to costly home renovation incentives adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, known as the Superbonus scheme.
The premium investors pay to hold Italian government bonds over top-rated German ones narrowed on Friday to around 116 basis points, the lowest level since end-2021.
Analysts said earlier this week that positive news from any of the ratings agencies due to review Italy could trigger a further narrowing of the yield spread against Germany.
Fitch said its revision to Italy's outlook was also driven by "signs of stronger potential growth and a more stable political context."
The Italian economy expanded by 0.7% in 2023, and most analysts expect a similar modest growth rate this year, slightly below the government's official 1% target.
Meloni, who took office two years ago, retains high approval ratings and opinion polls show her right-wing Brothers of Italy party is comfortably the largest in Italy, with popular support of almost 30%, up from the 26% it won at the 2022 election.
Italy faces further credit rating reviews by Moody's, DBRS and Scope Ratings over the next few weeks up to No. 29.

Bahrain’s economy is on track for growth, with gross domestic product expected to expand by 3 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

Following its 2024 Article IV consultation, the IMF said Bahrain’s showed strong economic performance in 2023, achieving a 3 percent growth rate.

It projected that inflation, which fell to a low of 0.1 percent in 2023, will rise to 1.2 percent this year and gradually stabilize at 2 percent over the medium term.

According to the IMF, government debt surged to 123 percent of GDP, a 12 percentage point increase.

“To put government debt to GDP onto a durable downward path, a multi-year and pre-committed fiscal consolidation and reform package is the policy priority,” said John Bluedorn, the IMF mission chief.

Bahrain’s economic diversification efforts are another key focus. The IMF acknowledged the progress made but urged further reforms to boost inclusive, sustainable growth. These include expanding programs to enhance human capital, addressing skill gaps, and improving access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance