Japan's Core Inflation Rate Slows in September

FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
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Japan's Core Inflation Rate Slows in September

FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Media members observe the stock quotation board at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo, Japan, August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo

Japanese inflation slowed in September with prices up 2.4 percent on-year, not including volatile fresh food, official data showed Friday.
The core Consumer Price Index eased from 2.8 percent in August as the pace of increase in electricity and gas prices relented, the internal affairs ministry said.
Despite the slowdown, the rate remained above the Bank of Japan's two percent target, set over a decade ago as part of efforts to boost the stagnant economy, reported AFP.
The target has been surpassed every month since April 2022, although the bank has questioned to what extent that is down to temporary factors such as the Ukraine war.
"The resumption of electricity subsidies resulted in a plunge in headline inflation in September," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.
Thieliant predicted a further deceleration of core inflation in October, but noted that the subsidies "should be phased out completely by December, which should lift inflation".
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in March for the first time since 2007 and again in July, in initial steps towards normalizing its ultra-loose monetary policies.
New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said this month that the environment was not right for another interest rate increase.
After Ishiba took office in early October, perceptions that he favored hiking borrowing costs and the possibility that he could raise taxes triggered a surge in the yen and stock market volatility.
One dollar bought 150 yen on Friday morning after the Japanese currency weakened from levels around 149.35 the day before.
Excluding both fresh food and energy, Japanese prices rose 2.1 percent in September.
"We expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain around two percent until early next year, when it should gradually fall below two percent," Thieliant said.
"Accordingly, we still expect the Bank of Japan to press ahead with another interest rate hike before year-end."



Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance

Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Fitch Revises Italy's Outlook to 'Positive' on Stronger Fiscal Performance

Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Porta Nuova's financial district is seen in downtown Milan, Italy, May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Stefano Rellandini/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Global credit ratings agency Fitch on Friday revised its outlook on Italy to 'positive' from 'stable', citing recent improvements in the fiscal performance of the euro zone's third largest economy and its commitment to EU budget regulations.
The upgrade to the outlook is a boost to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government and comes shortly after Rome reached an agreement with the European Commission on a seven-year budget adjustment, said Reuters.
"Italy's fiscal credibility has increased, and the 2025 budget underscores the government's commitment to EU fiscal rules," Fitch said in a statement.
The agency confirmed Italy's rating at 'BBB'.
In June, the Commission placed Italy and six other countries under a disciplinary procedure due to high budget deficits. Italy's 2023 shortfall came in at 7.2% of gross domestic product, the highest in the 20-nation euro zone.
However, last month the Italian government revised down its targets for the deficit this year and next, to 3.8% and 3.3% of GDP respectively, and said the deficit would fall below the EU’s 3% limit in 2026.
"The judgments of the ratings agencies are the result of the responsible actions of this government and they underscore Italy's credibility," Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in a statement after Fitch's announcement.
Earlier on Friday, S&P Global confirmed its rating on Italy at 'BBB' and left the outlook at 'stable'.
RISING DEBT
Despite the narrowing annual budget deficits, Italy's debt, proportionally the second highest in the euro zone, is forecast by the government to climb from 134.8% of gross domestic product last year to 137.8% in 2026, before gradually declining.
The Treasury says the projected increase is due to costly home renovation incentives adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, known as the Superbonus scheme.
The premium investors pay to hold Italian government bonds over top-rated German ones narrowed on Friday to around 116 basis points, the lowest level since end-2021.
Analysts said earlier this week that positive news from any of the ratings agencies due to review Italy could trigger a further narrowing of the yield spread against Germany.
Fitch said its revision to Italy's outlook was also driven by "signs of stronger potential growth and a more stable political context."
The Italian economy expanded by 0.7% in 2023, and most analysts expect a similar modest growth rate this year, slightly below the government's official 1% target.
Meloni, who took office two years ago, retains high approval ratings and opinion polls show her right-wing Brothers of Italy party is comfortably the largest in Italy, with popular support of almost 30%, up from the 26% it won at the 2022 election.
Italy faces further credit rating reviews by Moody's, DBRS and Scope Ratings over the next few weeks up to No. 29.