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High Demand, Lower Interest Rates Boost Growth in Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Transactions

Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)
Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)
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High Demand, Lower Interest Rates Boost Growth in Saudi Arabia’s Real Estate Transactions

Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)
Riyadh accounts for about 60% of total real estate deals (Reuters)

High demand for residential units in Saudi Arabia’s major cities, along with a recovery in the real estate market driven by lower interest rates, has boosted the total value of real estate transactions in the Kingdom to $50 billion (SAR 188 billion) during the first nine months of 2024. This marks a 35% increase compared to the same period last year, according to real estate experts who expect this growth to continue in the next quarter and in the coming years.

Data from the Saudi Ministry of Justice revealed that over 162,000 real estate transactions were recorded during this period, with the residential sector accounting for about 86% of the total. The commercial sector made up around 10% of the transactions. The Riyadh region led the way with approximately 60% of the total transactions, valued at $27 billion (SAR 101 billion), followed by the Makkah region with 19%, valued at $11.8 billion (SAR 44.3 billion).

Investor Confidence

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, real estate expert and appraiser Eng. Ahmed Al-Faqih highlighted that the growth in real estate transactions reflects the strong confidence of investors and stakeholders in the resilience and attractiveness of the Saudi real estate market. He noted that this was particularly evident in Riyadh, which accounted for half of the total real estate activity over the past nine months, driven by the government’s launch of several large-scale projects in the capital.

Al-Faqih added that the real estate market’s growth is aligned with the broader investment activity in the country. This growth is supported by increased regulations, governance, and transparency, which have propelled Saudi Arabia to rank 12th globally in the Real Estate Transparency Index, placing it among the top 40 international markets in terms of transparency.

A report from global real estate consultancy Knight Frank noted that the total value of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 projects launched in the past eight years has reached $1.3 trillion.

Supply and Demand

For his part, real estate expert Saqr Al-Zahrani told Asharq Al-Awsat that supply and demand are the primary drivers of the real estate market in Saudi Arabia. He anticipates that a gradual reduction in interest rates will stimulate real estate demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 by lowering financing costs, encouraging both investors and buyers to capitalize on the opportunity.

Al-Zahrani attributed the growth in real estate transactions in Riyadh to its position as a key destination for internal migration and investment opportunities, driven by infrastructure projects and a growing population, which continue to boost demand for both residential and commercial properties in Riyadh and nearby areas.

He also highlighted that regional conflicts and Saudi Arabia’s stable strategic position have increased the Kingdom’s appeal in the real estate market.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, Al-Zahrani expects continued growth in real estate transactions due to three key factors: the seasonal rise in demand in Makkah during Umrah and Hajj, the increase in residential and commercial projects in Riyadh alongside significant infrastructure investments, and the easing of financing restrictions with lower interest rates.

Al-Zahrani identified six factors that will drive long-term growth in Saudi Arabia’s real estate market: large infrastructure projects improving the quality of life, growing demand for housing due to population growth and internal migration, regulatory reforms facilitating property ownership and investment, increased foreign investment driven by political stability, diverse financing options such as investment funds and crowdfunding platforms, and Saudi Arabia’s stable political climate compared to neighboring countries, boosting investor confidence.

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What Does the Inclusion of Saudi Bonds in the J.P. Morgan Index Mean?

Saudi woman walks at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh - Reuters
Saudi woman walks at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh - Reuters
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What Does the Inclusion of Saudi Bonds in the J.P. Morgan Index Mean?

Saudi woman walks at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh - Reuters
Saudi woman walks at the Saudi stock market in Riyadh - Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s debt market is set for a strategic shift in early 2027, following J.P. Morgan’s announcement that local-currency bonds will be included in its global emerging markets bond index. The move represents a vote of confidence in the Kingdom’s structural reforms and is expected to open the door to substantial capital inflows that will help finance major economic transformation projects.

In a note, J.P. Morgan said the move follows a series of reforms to improve foreign investor access and enhance local market capabilities.

The bank added that Saudi sukuk, Shariah-compliant debt instruments that function similarly to bonds, with a remaining maturity of up to 15 years, will be eligible for inclusion in the Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM), the most widely tracked benchmark of its kind, with $233 billion in assets tracking it.

J.P. Morgan said eight sukuk issues would be eligible for inclusion, with a total value of $69 billion.

The Kingdom’s inclusion in the index is expected to boost liquidity and demand for sovereign debt, contributing to lower borrowing costs.

In September, J.P. Morgan had placed Saudi Arabia on “Positive Index Watch,” paving the way for its eventual inclusion in the GBI-EM.

Commenting on the decision, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg that the move reflects continued confidence in the Kingdom’s economic transformation trajectory. He said the inclusion marks a new milestone in Saudi Arabia’s integration into global financial markets, adding that its immediate impact will be seen in broadening and diversifying the investor base and supporting long-term capital inflows into the domestic debt market, thereby strengthening the resilience and stability of the national economy.

The Significance of the Index

The importance of J.P. Morgan’s index lies in its role as a benchmark guiding major global fund allocations, particularly passive funds that track indices automatically. With an expected weighting of around 2.52 percent, Saudi bonds will become a core component of international investor portfolios, increasing government bond liquidity and reducing borrowing costs over the long term, a critical factor for the Kingdom’s economy.

Passive funds play a key role in ensuring steady inflows. Trillions of dollars globally are managed through such funds. Once Saudi Arabia is included in the index, these funds will purchase Saudi bonds to remain aligned with it. Unlike active investors, they do not rapidly buy or sell based on daily news or market sentiment, but continue to hold bonds as long as they remain in the index, providing significant stability to the Saudi debt market. Their participation also ensures a constant base of large-scale buyers, facilitating bond trading at any time.

Reforms That Paved the Way

This inclusion is the result of a series of regulatory reforms highlighted by the bank in its note. Saudi Arabia has improved international investor access by linking to the global Euroclear system, expanding its network of primary dealers to include international banks, and facilitating cross-border settlement and trading. These measures have enhanced legal certainty and transparency, making the Saudi debt market an attractive and secure destination for foreign capital.

Financial Stability Amid Regional Challenges

Beyond its economic dimensions, the move carries strategic significance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. Increased inflows into local bonds are expected to strengthen the government’s ability to manage any economic fallout from regional instability. It underscores the resilience and attractiveness of the Saudi economy, demonstrating its capacity to attract quality investment and secure the financing needed for its development plans regardless of external challenges.

Business

S&P Warns African Sovereign Credit Rating Risks Likely to Worsen

Central Bank of Egypt building (A.P.)
Central Bank of Egypt building (A.P.)
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S&P Warns African Sovereign Credit Rating Risks Likely to Worsen

Central Bank of Egypt building (A.P.)
Central Bank of Egypt building (A.P.)

S&P Global Ratings warned on Thursday that the risks to African sovereign credit scores were likely to worsen the longer the Middle East war drags on.

The ratings agency said that higher fuel and fertilizer import costs would increase inflation and fiscal strains for countries, "potentially leading to rating pressure".

Egypt, Mozambique and Rwanda are among the "most exposed" the agency said, although Egypt's deep domestic capital markets and Rwanda's high levels of concessional debt provide some offset, according to Reuters.

Less exposed are net-oil exporters Nigeria, Angola and Congo-Brazzaville as well as Morocco, due to stronger foreign-currency reserves.

S&P's "base case" assumed that the conflict will peak and that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen but related disruptions will likely persist for months. A resumption of hostilities and a more prolonged conflict would present a greater threat to many African sovereigns.

The ratings agency said it expected Africa's borrowing costs to increase due to war's impacts and as a result of global risk aversion.

S&P in recent weeks kept Egypt's credit rating on a "stable" outlook and affirmed ratings for Morocco, Ghana and Mozambique.

Business

Gold Slips on Inflation Concerns as High Oil Prices and Stronger Dollar Weigh

An image made with a drone shows oil gas and fuel storage units at the Navigator Terminal in Grays, Britain, 14 April 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL
An image made with a drone shows oil gas and fuel storage units at the Navigator Terminal in Grays, Britain, 14 April 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL
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Gold Slips on Inflation Concerns as High Oil Prices and Stronger Dollar Weigh

An image made with a drone shows oil gas and fuel storage units at the Navigator Terminal in Grays, Britain, 14 April 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL
An image made with a drone shows oil gas and fuel storage units at the Navigator Terminal in Grays, Britain, 14 April 2026. EPA/NEIL HALL

Gold prices fell on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and elevated oil prices that stoked inflation worries, as investors tried to assess the conflict direction from stalled US-Iran talks.

Spot gold was down 0.9% at $4,696.71 per ounce, as of 1135 GMT. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.8% to $4,714.0.

The dollar inched higher, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, while benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose to an over one-week high, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

"Gold continues to take its cues from the oil market, with rising energy costs keeping the risk of near-term dollar strength and elevated inflation in focus," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as it tightened its grip on the strategic waterway after US President Donald Trump announced he was indefinitely calling off attacks, with no sign of peace talks restarting.

Iranian officials did not say they had agreed to any extension of the truce, accusing Washington of violating it by maintaining a blockade on Iranian trade by sea.

Brent crude oil prices rose above $100 a barrel on the stalled peace talks and as both nations maintained their restrictions on the flow of trade through the strait.

Higher crude oil prices can add to inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood that interest rates remain elevated. While gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, higher rates dampen bullion’s appeal as it offers no yield.

Meanwhile, a Reuters poll of economists showed the US Federal Reserve will likely wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year as war-driven energy shocks reignite already-elevated inflation.

"The current consolidation appears more a pause driven by rate uncertainty than a structural shift, and we maintain the view that gold is likely to reach a fresh record high later this year or in early 2027," Hansen added.

Spot silver fell 3.9% to $74.63 per ounce, while platinum lost 3.2% to $2,007.98, a more than one-week low for both metals. Palladium was down 4.8% at $1,470.79, a more than two-week low.