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Oil Slips on Higher US Crude Stocks, Market Watches Middle East

The US last week announced a 10-nation coalition to counter the attacks in the Red Sea. - File Photo
The US last week announced a 10-nation coalition to counter the attacks in the Red Sea. - File Photo
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Oil Slips on Higher US Crude Stocks, Market Watches Middle East

The US last week announced a 10-nation coalition to counter the attacks in the Red Sea. - File Photo
The US last week announced a 10-nation coalition to counter the attacks in the Red Sea. - File Photo

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed US crude inventories swelled more than expected, though futures were still up about 2% this week as traders factored in continuing conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.14, or 1.5%, to $74.90 a barrel by 1255 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed $1.10, or 1.53%, to $70.64.

Oil had settled higher in the previous two sessions, paring last week's losses of more than 7%. Those declines stemmed from worries about Chinese demand and some easing concerns around Middle East oil supply being disrupted, but investor sentiment appeared to reverse at the start of this week, Reuters reported.

"Two days of rallies eat at much of last week's 7% loss due to market perceptions of how the pieces of the war puzzle are falling into a timely picture in which Israel finally strikes directly at Iran," said PVM analyst John Evans.

Wednesday's price drop came after data showed US crude stocks rose by 1.64 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 300,000 barrels.

Official US government oil inventory data is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

But the inventories impact on prices was countered somewhat by persistent concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East.

"The market continues to wait for Israel's response to Iran's missile attack," ING analysts said on Wednesday, adding that Tuesday's price strength was possibly because of the lack of any outcome from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's latest visit to Israel.

Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy Israeli airstrikes on a Lebanese port city demonstrated that there was no respite.

"Market participants priced for the Middle East conflict to drag for longer, with a ceasefire deal potentially seeing some gridlock," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

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Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
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Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo

Oil prices tumbled more than $3 a barrel on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their lowest levels since Oct. 1 at the open. By 0750 GMT, Brent was at $72.92 a barrel, down $3.13, or 4.1%, while WTI slipped $3.15, or 4.4%, to $68.63 a barrel, Reuters said.
The benchmarks gained 4% last week in volatile trade as markets priced in uncertainty around the extent of Israel's response to the Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1 and the US election next month.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, in the latest exchange in the escalating conflict between the Middle Eastern rivals.
The geopolitical risk premium that had built in oil prices in anticipation of Israel's retaliatory attack came off, analysts said.
"The more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, which has seen the risk premium come off a few dollars a barrel," Saul Kavonic, a Sydney-based energy analyst at MST Marquee, said.
"The market will be watching closely for confirmation Iran won't counter attack in the coming weeks, which could see the risk premium rise again."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar expects market attention to turn to ceasefire talks between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas that resumed over the weekend.
"Despite Israel’s choice of a low aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran’s proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire," he said in a note.
Citi lowered its Brent price target in the next three months to $70 a barrel from $74, factoring in a lower risk premium in the near term, its analysts led by Max Layton said in a note.
Analyst Tim Evans at US-based Evans Energy said in a note: "We think this leaves the market at least somewhat undervalued, with some risk OPEC+ producers may push back the planned increase in output targets beyond December."
In October, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, kept their oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start raising output from December. The group will meet on Dec. 1 ahead of a full meeting of OPEC+.