IMF Says International Community Should Provide Grants to Lebanon

Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon October 25, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon October 25, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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IMF Says International Community Should Provide Grants to Lebanon

Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon October 25, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon October 25, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

The international community should work to end the conflict in the Middle East and provide grants to Lebanon, the head of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department has said.

Jihad Azour spoke to AFP in Washington, where the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are currently taking place.

In updated economic estimates, the Fund slightly downgraded its outlook for economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa to 2.1 percent this year, while maintaining its 4.0 percent growth outlook for 2025.

However, these estimates do not take into account the economic impact of the recent escalation of conflict in southern Lebanon, where Israel has invaded to fight Hezbollah.

Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister, noted that the most severely affected places, including Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, were facing a "huge humanitarian problem" which has devastated their economies.

"You have massive loss in output, you have a massive destruction in infrastructure, and you have a huge set of needs for additional spending, for shelter, for health and so on," he said.

"We expect that growth will be negative in those cases, and we expect that the recovery would take longer to materialize," he added.

The IMF has suspended its forecasts for the Lebanese economy, citing an "unusually high degree of uncertainty." But a recent United Nations Development report estimated that the country's GDP would be 9.2 percent smaller as a "direct consequence" of the conflict.

"You have massive destruction of infrastructure in a large region, which is the south, and mass destruction of livelihood, because this is an agricultural region that was severely affected," Azour said, adding that almost 20 percent of Lebanon's population had been displaced.

"We encourage the international community, we encourage the friends of Lebanon, to provide grants," he continued, calling on the international community "to put its utmost effort in order to solve the problem, in order to reduce the suffering of people."

For countries indirectly affected by the conflict, like Jordan and Egypt, the impact of Israel's ongoing military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon has been felt differently.

While Egypt has been hit hard by a 70 percent fall in revenues from ships traversing the Suez Canal, Jordan's economy has suffered from a steep decline in tourism, Azour said.



Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product grew 2.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year, preliminary government estimates showed on Thursday.

Non-oil activities grew 2.8% in the quarter, and oil activities increased 2.3% from the prior-year period, the General Authority of Statistics data ⁠showed.

On a quarterly basis, growth shrank 1.5% in the three months to March 31 compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a decline in oil activities.

Oil activity decreased 7.2% from the fourth quarter, while non-oil activity was almost flat.


IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
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IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

Asian countries will need to keep their powder dry in preparation for future shocks even as they tackle an energy crisis caused by the Iran War, IMF Director for Asia Pacific Krishna Srinivasan said on Thursday.

With energy supplies running short due to the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, southeast Asian economies have budgeted significant sums to cushion the impact of surging prices, and have also introduced measures to conserve energy, including work from home plans.

But Srinivasan, speaking at a media roundtable, warned countries against ramping up energy subsidies.

"If you give generalised subsidies, it's very hard to pull it back," he said, adding that countries should instead provide budget neutral ⁠and targeted fiscal ⁠support, and maintain fiscal discipline.

"In other words, cut elsewhere to support people who are being hit by the energy shock," Reuters quoted him as saying.

Srinivasan said that while some markets, such as Thailand and China, can hold off on tightening monetary policy because they are in deflationary territory, markets already above their inflation targets, including Australia, need to start now.

He also ⁠noted that some markets, such as the Philippines, have decided to tighten preemptively to anchor inflation expectations, but he added that the IMF's advice would have been to see through the shock and wait to see if inflation really picks up in a meaningful way.

"You may want to take insurance upfront or you may want to wait and see so that you don't hurt growth ... it's a very difficult balance to strike as a central bank governor," he said.

The IMF cut its global GDP outlook for 2026 to 3.1% on April 14, assuming ⁠a short-lived Middle ⁠East conflict and oil prices normalising in the second half of the year.

However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the fund's "adverse scenario" of 2.5% growth looked increasingly likely, with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict.

Srinivasan said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond the next three months and oil prices stay elevated for the rest of the year, the IMF's more severe growth scenarios will become more likely.

There are still downside risks to growth, with a number of uncertainties facing the world economy, including the duration of the energy crisis and the severity of fertiliser shortages, which could create a food supply shock, he said.


Euro Zone Inflation Soars Further Above ECB Target

FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
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Euro Zone Inflation Soars Further Above ECB Target

FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)

Euro zone inflation surged further in April on soaring energy costs, Eurostat data showed on Thursday, adding to the case for interest rate hikes, even if benign underlying price growth figures ease the urgency of any move.

Inflation in the 21 countries sharing the euro currency jumped to 3.0% this month from 2.6% in March, moving further above the European Central Bank's 2% target, with energy costs accounting for the vast majority of the increase.

A closely watched figure ⁠on underlying or 'core' ⁠inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, meanwhile slowed to 2.2% from 2.3% a month earlier.

Services inflation, a stubbornly high component of the price basket over the past several years, slowed to 3.0% from 3.2% while inflation for non-energy industrial ⁠goods, a key drag on prices picked up to 0.8%.

The figures are a mixed bag for the ECB, which is meeting on Thursday and will likely keep interest rates unchanged, even if it signals that policy tightening is increasingly likely, Reuters reported.

The high headline inflation print strengthens the argument for interest rate hikes but the underlying figures suggest that the initial energy shock is not yet creating major ⁠second round effects.

The ⁠ECB is largely powerless against an energy shock but must step in if these second round effects become visible as they risk creating a hard-to-break self-sustaining inflation spiral.

This is why investors expect the ECB to hike its 2% deposit rate already in June and see at least two more moves before the end of the year.

This outlook is volatile, however, and largely depends on developments in the Iran war and oil prices, which hit a four-year-high of $124 on Thursday.