Saudi Aramco CEO: Oil Market is Currently Balanced

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Aramco CEO: Oil Market is Currently Balanced

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated that the oil market is currently balanced, even as global demand is influenced by rising interest rates and slower economic growth in China.

China, the world’s largest oil consumer, is experiencing challenges due to significant shifts in its real estate sector, a key factor in its economic growth.

Speaking during a panel titled “The Future of Energy: What Will Accelerate the Energy Transition?” at the Future Investment Initiative conference, Nasser mentioned that he anticipates global oil demand will reach approximately 106 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, with an average of 104.5 million barrels for the year.

Earlier this month, OPEC adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.93 million barrels per day, down from 2.03 million barrels, marking the third consecutive revision. China accounted for most of this adjustment in the 2024 outlook, with OPEC attributing the revision to actual data and slightly lower demand expectations in certain areas.

Nasser highlighted a positive perspective on the situation, stating: “When people talk about China, they often amplify the negatives while overlooking the positives.”

Discussing the shift to renewable energy, Nasser emphasized the importance of reducing carbon emissions from existing energy sources as a priority, adding that the energy transition must be “affordable, safe, and sustainable.”

He confirmed that Saudi Arabia is “continuing efforts to reduce carbon emissions across all our operations... All our equipment is managed using AI and advanced data analytics.”

Pointing to the Saudi Green Initiative, he underscored the Kingdom’s commitment to the energy transition, while also ensuring continued efforts to expand oil and petrochemical activities.

Nasser further discussed energy needs in the Global South, saying: “The energy transition depends on economic investment levels... We need to start exporting to industrialized nations and enable the Global South to achieve this transition.” He noted that the Global South currently uses just one-tenth of the energy consumed by the Global North.



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT

Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.