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Oil Gains More Than $1/bbl on Reports Iran Preparing Strike on Israel

A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
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Oil Gains More Than $1/bbl on Reports Iran Preparing Strike on Israel

A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
A motorist drives past the CHS oil refinery Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024, in McPherson, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Oil prices extended gains on Friday, climbing more than $1 a barrel to pare weekly losses, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rose following reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in the coming days.
Brent crude futures, which have rolled to the January contract, climbed $1.41, or 2%, to $74.22 a barrel by 0456 GMT, Reuters said.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.46, or 2.1%, to $70.72 a barrel after settling up 0.95% in the previous session.
Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election on Nov. 5, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.
The attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, the Axios report added.
Oil prices were also supported by expectations that OPEC+ could delay December's planned increase to oil production by a month or more, four sources close to the matter told Reuters on Wednesday, citing concern about soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision to delay the increase could come as early as next week, two of the sources said.
However, prices are set to fall more than 1% for the week, struggling to recover from a 6% loss on Monday after Israel's strike against Iran's military on Oct. 26 bypassed oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies.
"Despite the crude oil market looking to lock in a third straight day of gains, it has been unable to completely erase the large gap lower that followed Monday's re-open," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore based in Sydney.
However, WTI's rebound should extend back towards where it closed last Friday at about $71.80, he added, as tensions in the Middle East returned to focus.
"After that, though, all bets are off. I think it will depend on who wins the US election and what fiscal stimulus details, if any, come from the NPC standing committee meeting," Sycamore said, referring to major events in the US and China, world's largest oil consumers, next week.
In China, manufacturing activity swung back to growth in October, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, echoing an official survey on Thursday that showed manufacturing activity expanded in October for the first time in six months. Both surveys suggest stimulus measures are having an effect.
US gasoline stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week to a two-year low on strengthened demand, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, while crude inventories also posted a surprise drawdown as imports slipped.
The world's largest oil producer pumped a monthly record high of 13.4 million barrels per day in August, EIA said.

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IMF Forecasts 4% Rebound for MENA Region Next Year

Jihad Azour, the Fund’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, at the launch of an IMF Regional Economic Outlook (IMF/File)
Jihad Azour, the Fund’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, at the launch of an IMF Regional Economic Outlook (IMF/File)
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IMF Forecasts 4% Rebound for MENA Region Next Year

Jihad Azour, the Fund’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, at the launch of an IMF Regional Economic Outlook (IMF/File)
Jihad Azour, the Fund’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, at the launch of an IMF Regional Economic Outlook (IMF/File)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted on Thursday that growth in the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to rebound to 4% next year, but will hinge on a phase out of oil production cuts and headwinds subsiding, including from conflicts.
The IMF also stated that any discussions to further increase the overall program size in Egypt are premature.
At the launch of the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook, Jihad Azour, the Fund’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, told reporters in Dubai that “the economic outlook is fraught with risks.
“Hence, our 2025 forecasts come with important caveats,” he said.
Growth in the region will remain “sluggish” at 2.1% in 2024, lower than earlier projections as geopolitical and macroeconomic factors weigh.
For 2024, growth is projected at 2.1%, a downgrade revision of 0.6% from the April WEO forecast, and this is largely due to the impact of the conflict and the prolonged OPEC+ production cuts.
To the extent that these gradually abate, the IMF anticipates stronger growth of 4% in 2025. However, uncertainty about when these factors will ease is still very high, Azour said.
Meanwhile, the economic growth of MENA oil-exporting countries is expected to increase from 2.3% in 2024 to 4% in 2025, if the voluntary oil output cuts end.
The IMF has estimated that growth among GCC members will reach 8.1% this year, accelerating to 2.4% next year compared to 4.2% and 9.4% in its previous forecast in April. Inflation rates are projected to average 8.1% this year and 9.1% next year.
In MENA emerging markets, growth is also expected to accelerate from 2.4% this year to 3.8% in 2025, assuming a decline in the intensity of conflicts.
Similarly, improved growth in low-income countries (LICs) depends, to a large extent, on the easing of conflict in Sudan, according to Azour.
He explained that the Fund’s forecasts were prepared in mid-September and therefore do not reflect the impact of recent developments in the region.
“We are closely monitoring the situation and assessing the potential economic impacts. Overall, the impact will depend on the severity of any potential escalation,” Azour said.
He noted that the conflict could impact the region through multiple channels.
“Beyond the impact on output, other key channels of transmissions could include tourism, trade, potential refugee and migration flows, oil and gas market volatility, financial markets and social unrest,” Azour added.
He also warned that concern is also high about the possibility of prolonged conflict in Sudan, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, volatility in commodity prices, especially for the oil exporting countries, high debt and financing needs for emerging markets and recurrent climate shocks.
Egypt
Azour said the IMF’s $8 billion program for Egypt is making progress, stating that any discussions to further increase the overall program size are premature.
Asked whether he was confident Egypt would meet its program targets, Azour said that economic conditions in Egypt were expected to improve and that it was too early to discuss any changes to its size.
“The program is moving in the right direction and is gradually achieving its targets, both in terms of growth recovery and gradual decline in inflation, and a normal functioning of the foreign exchange market,” Azour said.
“Building buffers or strengthening the buffers of Egypt is the first line of defense that could help the Egyptian economy withstand any additional external shock,” he said.
Azour also said that Egypt was expected to save almost $800 million over the next six years on the back of recent reforms of the IMF's charges and surcharges policy, which would provide additional support.
The IMF's Egypt team is scheduled to travel to Cairo in November to prepare for the third review of the program. Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also plans to visit to reaffirm the fund's support for Egypt.