Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



SABIC Returns to Profit in Q3 Driven by Revenue Growth

SABIC reported a net profit of SAR 1 billion ($266 million) for the three months ending September 30. (SPA)
SABIC reported a net profit of SAR 1 billion ($266 million) for the three months ending September 30. (SPA)
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SABIC Returns to Profit in Q3 Driven by Revenue Growth

SABIC reported a net profit of SAR 1 billion ($266 million) for the three months ending September 30. (SPA)
SABIC reported a net profit of SAR 1 billion ($266 million) for the three months ending September 30. (SPA)

Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC), one of the world’s largest petrochemical firms, returned to profit in the third quarter, recovering from a loss a year earlier, helped by higher revenue and core earnings.

SABIC, 70% owned by Aramco, reported a net profit of SAR 1 billion ($266 million) for the three months ending September 30, according to a disclosure to the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul).

This is a major improvement from a loss of SAR 2.87 billion during the same period last year.

SABIC CEO Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh said: “The increase in the third quarter’s profits compared to the same quarter last year is attributable to higher average selling prices of some key products, and a decrease in total losses on non-continuing operations.”

Analysts had projected that SABIC would achieve profits of up to SAR 1.7 billion.

SABIC attributed its growth mainly to higher average selling prices, which were partially offset by a slight decline in sales volumes.

The company’s net profit was primarily driven by an increase in operating income of about SAR 797 million, thanks to improved profit margins despite higher operating costs. Gains also came from selling its specialized business that produces plastic sheets and films, along with foreign exchange benefits in the third quarter of 2024.

Profit was also driven by a decrease in losses from discontinued operations by around SAR 3.3 billion, mainly due to the fair value assessment of Saudi Iron and Steel Company (Hadeed), classified as a discontinued operation while awaiting the closure of a previously announced sale.

This was partly offset by a drop in financing income of SAR 390 million from the revaluation of equity derivatives, which are non-cash items.