Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
TT

Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



US Election Weighs on Markets

US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)
US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)
TT

US Election Weighs on Markets

US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)
US Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. (Reuters)

The dollar softened and stocks fell on Monday as investors treaded carefully hours before the US presidential election, with a US Federal Reserve interest-rate cut also expected later in the week.

In the US presidential race, Democratic Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote. It might not be clear who won for days after voting ends.

“Tuesday will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.

They cautioned that “there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it.”

Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts say, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.

Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing.

The Bank of England also meets Thursday and is expected to cut by 25 basis points, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points and the Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold.

The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its meeting on Tuesday and again is expected to hold rates steady.

“Based on current data, we see no reason for (the Federal Open Market Committee) to rush through rate cuts,” said analysts at ANZ. “The election and uncertainty over the future fiscal path also support arguments for caution in recalibrating monetary policy.”

The euro extended an early climb to be up 0.5% at $1.0891 and looked set to test resistance around $1.0905. The dollar fell 0.6% on the yen to 152.60. The dollar index eased 0.1% to 103.80.

Dealers said the dip in the dollar might be linked to a poll that showed Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa, thanks largely to her popularity with female voters.

“Markets are seemingly scaling back some Trump trades, and we suspect the next two days can see some abnormal swings in USD crosses due to tighter volatility conditions ahead of a closely contested and highly binary US election,” ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole said.

European stocks were flat, while oil prices climbed nearly 3% on Monday on OPEC+'s decision for a month's delay in plans to increase output, while investors also focused on the US presidential election.

British stocks outperformed continental indexes to add 0.5%, helped by the energy sector.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.7%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday.

Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.2%.

Wall Street also notched slim gains ahead of Tuesday's US election. Futures had the S&P 500 up 0.2% ahead of Monday’s opening bell, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones were seen 0.1% higher respectively.

Bonds have rallied on Monday as a result of the latest swing in the polls, with yields on 10-year US treasuries down 10 basis points at 4.28%.