Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
TT

Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



Gold Drops Nearly 2% on Profit-booking, Trump's Treasury Secretary Pick

FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
TT

Gold Drops Nearly 2% on Profit-booking, Trump's Treasury Secretary Pick

FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo

Gold dropped nearly 2% on Monday, weighed down by profit-taking after a five-session rally, with further pressure from the announcement of fund manager Scott Bessent as the next US Treasury secretary.
Spot gold was down 1.8% at $2,664.53 per ounce, as of 0619 GMT, after declining more than 2% earlier in the session. Bullion had hit its highest since Nov. 6 earlier in the day.
US gold futures shed 1.7% to $2,666.40.
Gold's five-session rally has paused due to some profit-taking and Donald Trump's pick of Bessent as the next US Treasury secretary, hinting at tempered use of tariffs and easing US-China trade uncertainty, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.
President-elect Trump has floated the idea of a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10% levy on all other imports.
Gold is considered a safe investment during times of economic and political uncertainty.
Investors are also awaiting minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, GDP data (first revision), and core PCE figures, all due this week.
Traders currently see a 56% chance of another 25-basis-point rate cut in December, compared to 62% last week, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
Recent less dovish signals from US policymakers suggest any unexpected rise in inflation could strengthen expectations of a rate hold in December, Rong said.
Higher interest rates tend to make gold less appealing, as they yield no interest.
Some Fed policymakers last week expressed concerns that inflation progress may have stalled, advocating for caution, while others emphasized the need for continued rate cuts.
On the geopolitical front, Hezbollah fired heavy rockets at Israel on Sunday, following an Israeli airstrike that killed at least 29 in Beirut. There were reports of damage near Tel Aviv.
Spot silver fell 2.2% to $30.63 per ounce, platinum was down 1.2% to $952.00 and palladium slipped 1% to $998.88.