Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



Oil Trades in Tight Range Ahead of US Election

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Trades in Tight Range Ahead of US Election

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of what is expected to be an exceptionally close US presidential election, after rising more than 2% in the previous session as OPEC+ delayed plans to hike production in December.
Brent crude futures ticked down 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $75.05 a barrel by 0600 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.43 a barrel, down 4 cents, or 0.06%.
"We are now in the calm before the storm," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Oil prices were supported by Sunday's announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, to push back a production hike by a month from December as weak demand and rising non-OPEC supply depress markets, Reuters said.
Still, risk-taking remains limited with a busy week - including the US election, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, and China's National People's Congress (NPC) meeting - keeping many traders on the sidelines, said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
For now, polls suggest the US presidential race will be closely contested, and any delay in election results or even disputes could pose near-term risks for broader markets or drag on them for longer, added Yeap.
"Eyes are also on China's NPC meeting for any clarity on fiscal stimulus to uplift the country's demand outlook, but we are unlikely to see any strong commitment before the US presidential results, and that will continue to keep oil prices in a near-term waiting game," Yeap said.
Meanwhile, OPEC oil output rebounded in October as Libya resumed output, a Reuters survey found, although a further Iraqi effort to meet its cuts pledged to the wider OPEC+ alliance limited the gain.
More oil could come from OPEC producer Iran as Tehran has approved a plan to increase output by 250,000 barrels per day, the oil ministry's news website Shana reported on Monday.
In the US, a late season tropical storm predicted to intensify into a category 2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this week could reduce oil production by about 4 million barrels, researchers said.
"Technically, crude oil needs to rebound above resistance at $71.50/72.50 to negate the downside risks," IG's Sycamore said, referring to WTI prices.
"All of which suggests there won't be a scramble to chase it higher in the short term."
Ahead of US weekly oil data on Wednesday, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday that US crude stockpiles likely rose last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories fell.