Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



Oil Prices Ease but Remain Near 2-week Highs on Russia, Iran Tensions

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo
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Oil Prices Ease but Remain Near 2-week Highs on Russia, Iran Tensions

FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford//File Photo

Oil prices retreated on Monday following 6% gains last week, but remained near two-week highs as geopolitical tensions grew between Western powers and major oil producers Russia and Iran, raising risks of supply disruption.
Brent crude futures slipped 26 cents, or 0.35%, to $74.91 a barrel by 0440 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.97 a barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.38%.
Both contracts last week notched their biggest weekly gains since late September to reach their highest settlement levels since Nov. 7 after Russia fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in a warning to the United States and UK following strikes by Kyiv on Russia using US and British weapons.
"Oil prices are starting the new week with some slight cool-off as market participants await more cues from geopolitical developments and the Fed’s policy outlook to set the tone," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
"Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have edged up a notch lately, leading to some pricing for the risks of a wider escalation potentially impacting oil supplies."
As both Ukraine and Russia vie to gain some leverage ahead of any upcoming negotiations under a Trump administration, the tensions may likely persist into the year-end, keeping Brent prices supported around $70-$80, Yeap added.
In addition, Iran reacted to a resolution passed by the UN nuclear watchdog on Thursday by ordering measures such as activating various new and advanced centrifuges used in enriching uranium.
"The IAEA censure and Iran’s response heightens the likelihood that Trump will look to enforce sanctions against Iran’s oil exports when he comes into power," Vivek Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.
Enforced sanctions could sideline about 1 million barrels per day of Iran’s oil exports, about 1% of global oil supply, he said.
The Iranian foreign ministry said on Sunday that it will hold talks about its disputed nuclear program with three European powers on Nov. 29.
"Markets are concerned not only about damage to oil ports and infrastructure, but also the possibility of war contagion and involvement of more countries," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
Investors were also focused on rising crude oil demand at China and India, the world's top and third-largest importers, respectively.
China's crude imports rebounded in November as lower prices drew stockpiling demand while Indian refiners increased crude throughput by 3% on year to 5.04 million bpd in October, buoyed by fuel exports.
For the week, traders will be eyeing US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, due on Wednesday, as that will likely inform the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 17-18, Sachdeva said.