Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Struggling Economy Slides Toward Full Recession

The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)
The Jousieh crossing between Lebanon and Syria following an Israeli strike on October 25. (AFP)

The ongoing Israeli war on Lebanon has led to significant economic losses estimated between $10 billion and $20 billion.

This range reflects the difficulty in accurately assessing the damage amid Israel’s ongoing military operations, including airstrikes and ground attacks.

The destruction of homes, infrastructure, and farmland has contributed to a state of uncertainty, along with an unprecedented wave of displacement affecting many families.

Experts agree that reliable economic data is hard to obtain while the conflict continues.

Reports from the Ministry of Health and international organizations said nearly 3,000 people have been killed and around 15,000 injured, mostly civilians.

Additionally, about 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes, representing roughly a quarter of Lebanon’s population.

Growing economic crisis ahead

The war came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was already struggling after five years of crisis.

According to Mohammad Choucair, head of the Economic Bodies Association, the situation is worsening rapidly, threatening serious economic and social consequences.

Current estimates suggest that direct losses from the conflict could reach between $10 billion and $12 billion, impacting various sectors.

As the war continues, key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and trade are experiencing a sharp decline in business activity.

Many small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to close or suspend operations due to direct damage from attacks, reduced consumer demand, and disruptions in trade and supply chains caused by the influx of displaced people.

International financial institutions are warning that the ongoing Israeli attacks could continue for several more months, possibly lasting until mid-2025.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) forecasts a 7% contraction in Lebanon’s GDP by the end of this year, followed by a 10% decline next year.

This would bring the total economic decline to nearly 60% from the peak GDP of around $53 billion recorded at the end of 2018.



Kazakhstan Anticipates Completion of ACWA Power’s Wind Energy Project

ACWA Power announced in March that it would execute the project, which will aid Kazakhstan in reaching its goal of sourcing 50% of its energy from clean resources by 2050. (Photo: ACWA Power)
ACWA Power announced in March that it would execute the project, which will aid Kazakhstan in reaching its goal of sourcing 50% of its energy from clean resources by 2050. (Photo: ACWA Power)
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Kazakhstan Anticipates Completion of ACWA Power’s Wind Energy Project

ACWA Power announced in March that it would execute the project, which will aid Kazakhstan in reaching its goal of sourcing 50% of its energy from clean resources by 2050. (Photo: ACWA Power)
ACWA Power announced in March that it would execute the project, which will aid Kazakhstan in reaching its goal of sourcing 50% of its energy from clean resources by 2050. (Photo: ACWA Power)

Kazakh Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Madiyar Menilbekov, announced that his country eagerly anticipates the completion of ACWA Power’s first wind energy project in the Zhetysu region. This project, led by the Saudi company, will have a total capacity of 1 gigawatt and an investment value of approximately $1.5 billion.
ACWA Power announced last March that it would execute this project, which will aid Kazakhstan in reaching its goal of sourcing 50% of its energy from clean resources by 2050. Construction is expected to commence in the summer of 2025.
Menilbekov told Asharq Al-Awsat that both countries “have established a solid political dialogue at a high level, along with cooperation in trade, economics, culture, and parliamentary exchange.” He expects this high-level dialogue to continue at the upcoming COP 16 summit in Riyadh.
He further emphasized that trade, economic, and investment cooperation is the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, noting: “Both countries share a similar outlook on economic development, reflected in Kazakhstan’s Strategic Program 2050 and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.”
The Kazakh ambassador highlighted that last September, the Islamic Development Bank approved financing for projects in Kazakhstan focused on water resource development, enhancing agricultural productivity, and ensuring food security, with total allocations amounting to $1.153 billion.
In tourism, he noted significant progress toward establishing direct flights between the two countries. Air Astana launched flights between Shymkent and Jeddah in October and announced a route from Almaty to Medina, bringing the total to six direct flights. Additionally, Kazakh companies in construction, oil services, and IT have recently opened offices across Saudi Arabia. The Farabi Innovation Center was inaugurated in Riyadh to attract talented entrepreneurs and innovative startups from Nur-Sultan and Central Asia to the Kingdom.
Menilbekov explained that since gaining independence, Kazakhstan’s GDP has grown 17-fold, with foreign trade reaching $139.8 billion last year. He added: “Since 1993, Kazakhstan has attracted a total of $441 billion in foreign direct investment, allowing our economy to remain one of the most dynamic in Central Asia and the post-Soviet region.”
According to Menilbekov, Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer and exporter of natural uranium, responsible for more than 45% of global production and exports. He also noted that Kazakhstan produces 18 of the 34 raw materials identified by the European Union as “critical materials.”
Menilbekov further mentioned that Kazakhstan possesses 200 million hectares of agricultural land, with about 100 million hectares currently under regular cultivation.