Saudi Private Sector Grows to Highest Level in 6 Months

People are seen at an employment forum in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
People are seen at an employment forum in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Private Sector Grows to Highest Level in 6 Months

People are seen at an employment forum in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
People are seen at an employment forum in Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector expanded for the third consecutive month in October, driven by a surge in new orders - their highest levels since March - and a substantial rise in sales, which significantly boosted business activity.

The Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased from 56.3 in September to 56.9 in October, reflecting improved operating conditions and economic momentum. This growth was attributed to robust sales in October, as companies reported strong customer demand and overall favorable economic conditions.

Consequently, businesses experienced an expansion in commercial activity and maintained a positive outlook for future growth. Additionally, purchasing of production inputs accelerated after reaching a three-year low in September, though it remained moderate compared to early-year levels, with companies noting sufficient inventory levels.

The report highlighted, however, that the strong sector-wide improvement was accompanied by increased cost pressures in materials and staffing, resulting in the first rise in average prices for goods and services in four months.

Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Chief Economist at Riyad Bank, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the robust economic performance was driven by a notable rise in sales, contributing to expansions in employment, procurement, and inventory.

The accelerated pace of input purchases in September, the fastest in three years, reflects a continued expansionary trend since September 2020, driven by rising demand, he stressed

The significant increase in new orders in October underscores the success of Vision 2030’s strategic emphasis on innovation and infrastructure development, he added.

More than 40% of surveyed companies reported increased demand, driven by strong local customer interest, creative marketing strategies, and sustained investments in infrastructure, demonstrating the resilience of Saudi Arabia’s economy and reinforcing its position as a leading non-oil economy in the region.

He noted that these gains align with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 4.2% in the third quarter, indicating a positive economic shift as the country seeks to diversify income sources away from oil, contributing to Vision 2030’s goals of building a sustainable economy capable of meeting future challenges.

Al-Ghaith projected that the non-oil sector’s contribution to GDP would exceed 52%, with growth surpassing 4% this year.



Aramco Maintains $31 Billion in Dividends Despite Profit Decline

Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
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Aramco Maintains $31 Billion in Dividends Despite Profit Decline

Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)
Aramco’s pavilion at the Global Future Investment Initiative conference held in Riyadh (FII webiste)

Saudi Aramco retained its position as the world’s top dividend distributor, maintaining its quarterly payouts at $31.05 billion, despite a 15.4% year-over-year drop in third-quarter net profit to $27.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $26.3 billion. The profit decline was mainly attributed to lower crude oil prices and weaker margins in its chemicals segment, though partly offset by reduced production royalties, income tax, and zakat.

According to Aramco’s data, the average oil price during Q3 2023 was $79.3 per barrel, down 11.2% from $89.3 per barrel in Q3 2022. The company’s dividend distributions include $20.3 billion in base dividends and $10.8 billion in performance-linked payouts scheduled for Q4.

Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, highlighted the company’s strong net income and free cash flow despite the lower oil prices. He affirmed Aramco’s commitment to maintaining positive momentum and strengthening its position as a global leader in energy and petrochemicals.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mohammed Al-Farraj, Senior Asset Management Officer at Arbah Financial, explained the 15.4% profit decline was driven by several factors, primarily lower crude oil prices, which directly affect Aramco’s revenue and profits. Additionally, the chemicals and refining businesses faced weak profit margins due to challenges like rising operational costs and a global demand slowdown. Economic factors such as inflation and higher interest rates also impacted energy demand, pressuring Aramco’s earnings.

Al-Farraj further noted that while oil price drops reduce Aramco’s revenue and impact refining margins, the chemicals sector faces additional challenges from higher raw material and energy costs, as well as intense competition. Despite these challenges, Aramco remains committed to its generous dividend policy, reflected in its substantial quarterly payout of $31.05 billion.

Aramco’s stock remained stable, trading at SAR27.55, up by about 0.2%. According to Al-Farraj, investor confidence in Aramco is bolstered by its financial strength and regular dividends, with strong growth prospects in renewable energy and petrochemical investments.

Energy researcher and OPEC Research Fellow Dr. Youssef Al-Shammari added that Aramco has become more resilient and less dependent on oil prices for profitability. He noted that Aramco’s financial and investment strategies make it less vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Additionally, he pointed out a general decline in global refining margins due to weaker global demand.