China Approves $840B Plan to Refinance Local Government Debt, Boost Economy

Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
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China Approves $840B Plan to Refinance Local Government Debt, Boost Economy

Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

China on Friday approved a 6 trillion yuan ($839 billion) plan to help local governments refinance their mountains of debt, in the latest push to rev up growth in the world’s second largest economy.

The plan will be implemented over the next three years, Xu Hongcai, vice-chairman of the National People's Congress's financial and economic committee, said at a news conference Friday.

Finance minister Lan Fo'an estimated that the hidden debt of local governments was 14.3 trillion yuan ($2 trillion) at the end of 2023. Hidden debt refers to debt that has not been disclosed publicly, The Associated Press reported.

Lan said 2 trillion yuan would be allocated each year from 2024 to 2026 to help local governments resolve their debts. He estimated that the amount of hidden debt will drop to 2.3 trillion yuan ($320.9 billion) by the end of 2028.

Officials also said Friday that the ceiling to issue special bonds will be raised to 35.52 trillion yuan ($4.96 billion) from 29.52 trillion yuan ($4.12 billion) for local governments.

Lan said that the implementation of such a large-scale replacement measure indicates a “fundamental shift” in China's approach to debt restructuring and said that China’s government debt risk was “controllable.”

Analysts have called for bold, multi-trillion-yuan measures to reinvigorate the world's second largest economy, which has yet to bounce back fully from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Local government debts have ballooned partly due to high spending and low tax revenues during the pandemic, but also due to a downturn in the property industry, since sales of land use rights, a key source of local government revenue, have sagged.

The central bank loosened restrictions on borrowing in late September, sparking a stock market rally, but economists say the government needs to do more to ignite a sustained recovery. Government officials have indicated that could come at this week's meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which must give official approval to any new spending.

The economy has shown signs of life in the past two months. Purchase subsidies offered to people who trade in old cars or appliances for new ones helped auto sales rebound in September. A survey of manufacturers turned positive in October after five straight months of decline, and exports surged 12.7% last month, the largest increase in more than two years.

For most of the year, the ruling Communist Party appeared more focused on addressing long-term structural issues with the economy rather than short-term ones. Previous steps to boost the economy were piecemeal, seemingly aimed at keeping the economy afloat rather than sparking a robust recovery.

In recent weeks, the party has signaled a growing concern about the economy's sluggishness as it tries to meet its goal of achieving growth of around 5% this year. The central bank's monetary easing was followed by government pronouncements that it still has ample funds to pump into the economy.

Still, the longer-term goals of transforming China into a high-tech and green energy economy seem likely to remain the chief aims of the Communist Party, which doesn't face election pressures like the ones that toppled the Democrats and swept Donald Trump's Republicans to power in America this week.



China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
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China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans in October, down sharply from September and falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a fall in new yuan loans to 700 billion yuan last month from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous month and against 738.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

"Corporate financing demand remains weak due to poor profitability," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huaxin Securities. "Credit demand may not pick up soon despite recent central bank policy measures."

The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns but Reuters calculated the October figures based on the bank's Jan-October data released on Monday, compared with the Jan-September figure.

The PBOC said new yuan loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan for the first ten months of the year.

Household loans, including mortgages, dropped to 160 billion yuan in October from 500 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dipped to 130 billion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

Chinese policymakers have been working to arrest further weakness in an economy stuttering in recent months from a prolonged property market downturn and swelling local government debt.

Among their goals is to tackle the side-effects from a mountain of debt left from previous stimulus dating back to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said China will step up counter-cyclical adjustment and affirm a supportive monetary policy stance, a central bank statement showed on Monday, citing a report Pan delivered to the top legislative body last week.

In late September, the central bank unveiled an aggressive stimulus package including rate cuts, and Chinese leaders pledged "necessary fiscal spending" to bring the economy back on track to meet a growth target of about 5%.

MORE STEPS ON THE CARDS

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

New measures planned will include sovereign bonds issuance to replenish the coffers of big state banks, and policies to support purchase of idle land and unsold flats from developers, Finance Minister Lan Foan said.

Analysts at OCBC Bank expect the central bank to deliver another cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio in November or December to support the planned bond issuance.

China watchers are skeptical the steps will produce a near-term boost in economic activity as most of the fresh funds will be used to reduce local government debt, but China's central bank said it will continue supportive monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth.

The PBOC also said it will study and revise money supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of the country's money supply.

Trump's election win could also prompt a stronger fiscal package in expectations of more economic headwinds for China. Trump threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, rattling China's industrial complex.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.5% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, above analysts' forecast of 6.9% in the Reuters poll. M2 grew 6.8% in September from a year ago.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 8.0% in October from a year earlier. Analysts had expected 8.1% growth, the same pace as in September.

The outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October, from 8.0% in September. Acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

In October, TSF fell to 1.4 trillion yuan from 3.76 trillion yuan in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected TSF of 1.55 trillion yuan.