China Approves $840B Plan to Refinance Local Government Debt, Boost Economy

Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
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China Approves $840B Plan to Refinance Local Government Debt, Boost Economy

Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

China on Friday approved a 6 trillion yuan ($839 billion) plan to help local governments refinance their mountains of debt, in the latest push to rev up growth in the world’s second largest economy.

The plan will be implemented over the next three years, Xu Hongcai, vice-chairman of the National People's Congress's financial and economic committee, said at a news conference Friday.

Finance minister Lan Fo'an estimated that the hidden debt of local governments was 14.3 trillion yuan ($2 trillion) at the end of 2023. Hidden debt refers to debt that has not been disclosed publicly, The Associated Press reported.

Lan said 2 trillion yuan would be allocated each year from 2024 to 2026 to help local governments resolve their debts. He estimated that the amount of hidden debt will drop to 2.3 trillion yuan ($320.9 billion) by the end of 2028.

Officials also said Friday that the ceiling to issue special bonds will be raised to 35.52 trillion yuan ($4.96 billion) from 29.52 trillion yuan ($4.12 billion) for local governments.

Lan said that the implementation of such a large-scale replacement measure indicates a “fundamental shift” in China's approach to debt restructuring and said that China’s government debt risk was “controllable.”

Analysts have called for bold, multi-trillion-yuan measures to reinvigorate the world's second largest economy, which has yet to bounce back fully from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Local government debts have ballooned partly due to high spending and low tax revenues during the pandemic, but also due to a downturn in the property industry, since sales of land use rights, a key source of local government revenue, have sagged.

The central bank loosened restrictions on borrowing in late September, sparking a stock market rally, but economists say the government needs to do more to ignite a sustained recovery. Government officials have indicated that could come at this week's meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which must give official approval to any new spending.

The economy has shown signs of life in the past two months. Purchase subsidies offered to people who trade in old cars or appliances for new ones helped auto sales rebound in September. A survey of manufacturers turned positive in October after five straight months of decline, and exports surged 12.7% last month, the largest increase in more than two years.

For most of the year, the ruling Communist Party appeared more focused on addressing long-term structural issues with the economy rather than short-term ones. Previous steps to boost the economy were piecemeal, seemingly aimed at keeping the economy afloat rather than sparking a robust recovery.

In recent weeks, the party has signaled a growing concern about the economy's sluggishness as it tries to meet its goal of achieving growth of around 5% this year. The central bank's monetary easing was followed by government pronouncements that it still has ample funds to pump into the economy.

Still, the longer-term goals of transforming China into a high-tech and green energy economy seem likely to remain the chief aims of the Communist Party, which doesn't face election pressures like the ones that toppled the Democrats and swept Donald Trump's Republicans to power in America this week.



Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
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Firm Dollar Keeps Pound, Euro and Yen Under Pressure

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The US dollar charged ahead on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs.

The focus for markets in 2025 has been on US President-elect Donald Trump's agenda as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures, according to Reuters.

CNN on Wednesday reported that Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for a series of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries. On Monday, the Washington Post said Trump was looking at more nuanced tariffs, which he later denied.

Concerns that policies introduced by the Trump administration could reignite inflation has led bond yields higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note hitting 4.73% on Wednesday, its highest since April 25. It was at 4.6709% on Thursday.

"Trump's shifting narrative on tariffs has undoubtedly had an effect on USD. It seems this capriciousness is something markets will have to adapt to over the coming four years," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets.

The bond market selloff has left the dollar standing tall and casting a shadow on the currency market.

Among the most affected was the pound, which was headed for its biggest three-day drop in nearly two years.

Sterling slid to $1.2239 on Thursday, its weakest since November 2023, even as British government bond yields hit multi-year highs.

Ordinarily, higher gilt yields would support the pound, but not in this case.

The sell-off in UK government bond markets resumed on Thursday, with 10-year and 30-year gilt yields jumping again in early trading, as confidence in Britain's fiscal outlook deteriorates.

"Such a simultaneous sell-off in currency and bonds is rather unusual for a G10 country," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank.

"It seems to be the culmination of a development that began several months ago. The new Labour government's approval ratings are at record lows just a few months after the election, and business and consumer sentiment is severely depressed."

Sterling was last down about 0.69% at $1.2282.

The euro also eased, albeit less than the pound, to $1.0302, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week as investors remain worried the single currency may fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per dollar mark that led to Tokyo intervening in the market last July, after it touched a near six-month low of 158.55 on Wednesday.

Though it strengthened a bit on the day and was last at 158.15 per dollar. That all left the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, up 0.15% and at 109.18, just shy of the two-year high it touched last week.

Also in the mix were the Federal Reserve minutes of its December meeting, released on Wednesday, which showed the central bank flagged new inflation concerns and officials saw a rising risk the incoming administration's plans may slow economic growth and raise unemployment.

With US markets closed on Thursday, the spotlight will be on Friday's payrolls report as investors parse through data to gauge when the Fed will next cut rates.