Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
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Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa

Türkiye's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecasts for this year and next to 44% and 21% respectively on Friday, and Governor Fatih Karahan vowed to keep policy tight to propel the disinflation process and hit targets.

The bank's previous inflation report three months ago forecast year-end inflation of 38% in 2024 and 14% next year, Reuters reported. The revision underlines its tougher-than-expected battle against inflation that began with aggressive rate hikes 18 months ago.
Presenting a quarterly update in Ankara, Karahan cited improvement in core inflation trends even as service-related price readings are proceeding slower than anticipated. But even in that sector, inflation is gradually losing momentum, he said.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "As the stickiness in services inflation weakens, the underlying trend of inflation will decline further in 2025."
October inflation remained loftier than expected, dipping only to 48.58% annually on the back of tight policy and so-called base effects, down from a peak above 75% in May.
Monthly inflation - a gauge closely monitored by the bank for signs of when to begin rate cuts - rose by 2.88% in the same period on the back of clothing and food prices.
The bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points between June 2023 and March 2024, to 50%, as part of an abrupt shift to orthodox policy after years of low rates aimed at stoking growth.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in past years was viewed as influencing monetary policy, had supported the previous unorthodoxy. It triggered a series of currency crashes and sent inflation soaring.

Erdogan was quoted on Friday as telling reporters that "no one should doubt" the steady decline in inflation and that economic steps would continue with discipline and determination to ease price pressures.

The central bank warned last month that a bump in recent inflation readings increased uncertainty, prompting analysts to delay expectations for the first rate cut to December or January.

Karahan said the new inflation forecasts were based on maintaining tight policy, adding the bank would do "whatever is necessary" to wrestle inflation down, and pointing to what he called a significant fall in the annual rate since May.

He said the slowdown in domestic demand continues at a moderate pace and the output gap has continued to decline in the third quarter.



Gold Falls as Easing US-China Tensions Curb Safe-haven Demand

FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth//File Photo
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Gold Falls as Easing US-China Tensions Curb Safe-haven Demand

FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth//File Photo

Gold retreated on Monday as easing US-China trade tensions boosted investors' risk appetite and dented demand for safe-haven assets such as bullion, while a stronger dollar also piled on the pressure.

Spot gold was down 0.8% at $3,292.43 an ounce, as of 0431 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $3,500.05 on April 22.

US gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,303.70.

The dollar rose 0.2% against a basket of currencies, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, Reuters reported.

"It's probably fair to say that financial markets and risk-assets in particular are feeling slightly better about the tariff picture now compared to the frantic first week in April," KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said.

"Comments last week from the White House have fueled optimism that a US-China trade deal may eventuate, which has caused safe-haven demand for assets such as gold to subside."

US President Donald Trump has said talks on tariffs were taking place with China.

The Trump administration signaled openness last week to de-escalating a trade war between the world's two largest economies that has raised fears of recession.

On Friday, China exempted some US imports from its steep tariffs, though China quickly knocked down Trump's assertion that negotiations were underway.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainties, thrives in a low interest rate environment.

Meanwhile, many participants in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings said Trump's administration was still conflicted in its demands from trading partners hit with his sweeping tariffs.

Key data releases this week include the US job openings report on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These reports may provide more insight into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

Spot silver dropped 0.6% to $32.88 an ounce, platinum eased 0.2% at $969.73 and palladium lost 0.6% to $943.28.