Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
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Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa

Türkiye's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecasts for this year and next to 44% and 21% respectively on Friday, and Governor Fatih Karahan vowed to keep policy tight to propel the disinflation process and hit targets.

The bank's previous inflation report three months ago forecast year-end inflation of 38% in 2024 and 14% next year, Reuters reported. The revision underlines its tougher-than-expected battle against inflation that began with aggressive rate hikes 18 months ago.
Presenting a quarterly update in Ankara, Karahan cited improvement in core inflation trends even as service-related price readings are proceeding slower than anticipated. But even in that sector, inflation is gradually losing momentum, he said.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "As the stickiness in services inflation weakens, the underlying trend of inflation will decline further in 2025."
October inflation remained loftier than expected, dipping only to 48.58% annually on the back of tight policy and so-called base effects, down from a peak above 75% in May.
Monthly inflation - a gauge closely monitored by the bank for signs of when to begin rate cuts - rose by 2.88% in the same period on the back of clothing and food prices.
The bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points between June 2023 and March 2024, to 50%, as part of an abrupt shift to orthodox policy after years of low rates aimed at stoking growth.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in past years was viewed as influencing monetary policy, had supported the previous unorthodoxy. It triggered a series of currency crashes and sent inflation soaring.

Erdogan was quoted on Friday as telling reporters that "no one should doubt" the steady decline in inflation and that economic steps would continue with discipline and determination to ease price pressures.

The central bank warned last month that a bump in recent inflation readings increased uncertainty, prompting analysts to delay expectations for the first rate cut to December or January.

Karahan said the new inflation forecasts were based on maintaining tight policy, adding the bank would do "whatever is necessary" to wrestle inflation down, and pointing to what he called a significant fall in the annual rate since May.

He said the slowdown in domestic demand continues at a moderate pace and the output gap has continued to decline in the third quarter.



Oil Recovers from Multi-year Low but Brent Remains below $70

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Recovers from Multi-year Low but Brent Remains below $70

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices were steady on Thursday, recovering slightly from a multi-year low, though Brent was still below $70 under pressure from trade tariffs between the US, Canada, Mexico and China and OPEC+ plans to raise output.

Those factors and a larger than expected build in US crude inventories had sent Brent as low as $68.33 on Wednesday, its weakest since December 2021. Brent futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.58 a barrel by 0957 GMT on Thursday while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.63.

"The US President's intention seems to be for a lower oil price," said John Evans at oil broker PVM, adding that questions remain around whether crude is being oversold, Reuters reported.

Prices had fallen after the US enacted tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, including energy imports, at the same time major producers decided to raise output quotas for the first time since 2022.

Oil recovered and stabilized somewhat after the US said it will make automakers exempt from the 25% tariffs.

A source familiar with the discussions said that US President Donald Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements.

"Trump's trade measures are threatening to reduce global energy demand and disrupt trade flows in the global oil market," ANZ commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a note.

The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022.

The resulting retreat in prices was then exacerbated on Wednesday by a rise in US crude inventories, said ANZ's Hynes.

Crude stockpiles in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose more than expected last week, buoyed by seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell because of a hike in exports, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

There are further signs of weakness in American oil demand, with US waterborne crude oil imports dropping to a four-year low in February, driven by a fall in Canadian barrels shipped to the East Coast, ship tracking data shows. Demand was subdued by refinery maintenance including a long turnaround at the largest plant in the region.

Tariffs also remain in effect on US imports of Mexican crude, a smaller supply stream than Canadian crude but an important one for US refineries on the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials have flagged that more stimulus is possible if economic growth slows, seeking to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States.