Oil Prices Fall More than 1% as Hurricane Rafael Risk Recedes

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Fall More than 1% as Hurricane Rafael Risk Recedes

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices fell on Friday on receding fears over the impact of Hurricane Rafael on oil and gas infrastructure in the US Gulf while investors also weighed up fresh Chinese economic stimulus.

Brent crude oil futures lost $1.04, or 1.38%, to $74.59 a barrel by 1243 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $1.22, or 1.69%, at $71.14.

The benchmarks have reversed Thursday's gains of nearly 1%, but Brent and WTI are still on track to finish 2% up over the week, with investors also examining how US President-elect Donald Trump's policies might affect oil supply and demand, Reuters reported.

Hurricane Rafael, which has caused 391,214 barrels per day of US crude oil production to be shut in, is forecast to weaken and move slowly away from US Gulf coast oilfields in the coming days, the US National Hurricane Center said.

Downward price pressure also came from data showing crude imports in China, the world's largest oil importer, fell 9% in October - the sixth consecutive month to show a year-on-year decline.

"The weakening of oil imports in China is due to weaker demand for oil as a result of the sluggish economic development and rapid advance of e-mobility," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

China kicked off a fresh round of fiscal support on Friday, announcing a package that eases debt repayment strains for local governments.

The nation's economy has faced strong deflationary pressures in the face of weak domestic demand, a property crisis and mounting financing strains on indebted local governments, limiting their investment capability.

"There were no additional stimulus measures targeting domestic demand, hence the disappointment weighing on prices," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters.

Prices had risen on Thursday on expected actions by the incoming Trump administration, such as tighter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could limit oil supply to global markets.

"In the short-term, oil prices might rise if the new President Trump is quick on the draw with oil sanctions," said PVM analyst John Evans.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that Trump's proposed policies of broad-based tariffs, deportations and tax cuts would have no near-term impact on the US economy, but the Fed would begin estimating the impact of such policies on its goals of stable inflation and maximum employment.

The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday.



Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
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Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa

Türkiye's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecasts for this year and next to 44% and 21% respectively on Friday, and Governor Fatih Karahan vowed to keep policy tight to propel the disinflation process and hit targets.

The bank's previous inflation report three months ago forecast year-end inflation of 38% in 2024 and 14% next year, Reuters reported. The revision underlines its tougher-than-expected battle against inflation that began with aggressive rate hikes 18 months ago.
Presenting a quarterly update in Ankara, Karahan cited improvement in core inflation trends even as service-related price readings are proceeding slower than anticipated. But even in that sector, inflation is gradually losing momentum, he said.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "As the stickiness in services inflation weakens, the underlying trend of inflation will decline further in 2025."
October inflation remained loftier than expected, dipping only to 48.58% annually on the back of tight policy and so-called base effects, down from a peak above 75% in May.
Monthly inflation - a gauge closely monitored by the bank for signs of when to begin rate cuts - rose by 2.88% in the same period on the back of clothing and food prices.
The bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points between June 2023 and March 2024, to 50%, as part of an abrupt shift to orthodox policy after years of low rates aimed at stoking growth.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in past years was viewed as influencing monetary policy, had supported the previous unorthodoxy. It triggered a series of currency crashes and sent inflation soaring.

Erdogan was quoted on Friday as telling reporters that "no one should doubt" the steady decline in inflation and that economic steps would continue with discipline and determination to ease price pressures.

The central bank warned last month that a bump in recent inflation readings increased uncertainty, prompting analysts to delay expectations for the first rate cut to December or January.

Karahan said the new inflation forecasts were based on maintaining tight policy, adding the bank would do "whatever is necessary" to wrestle inflation down, and pointing to what he called a significant fall in the annual rate since May.

He said the slowdown in domestic demand continues at a moderate pace and the output gap has continued to decline in the third quarter.