China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
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China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans in October, down sharply from September and falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a fall in new yuan loans to 700 billion yuan last month from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous month and against 738.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

"Corporate financing demand remains weak due to poor profitability," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huaxin Securities. "Credit demand may not pick up soon despite recent central bank policy measures."

The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns but Reuters calculated the October figures based on the bank's Jan-October data released on Monday, compared with the Jan-September figure.

The PBOC said new yuan loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan for the first ten months of the year.

Household loans, including mortgages, dropped to 160 billion yuan in October from 500 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dipped to 130 billion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

Chinese policymakers have been working to arrest further weakness in an economy stuttering in recent months from a prolonged property market downturn and swelling local government debt.

Among their goals is to tackle the side-effects from a mountain of debt left from previous stimulus dating back to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said China will step up counter-cyclical adjustment and affirm a supportive monetary policy stance, a central bank statement showed on Monday, citing a report Pan delivered to the top legislative body last week.

In late September, the central bank unveiled an aggressive stimulus package including rate cuts, and Chinese leaders pledged "necessary fiscal spending" to bring the economy back on track to meet a growth target of about 5%.

MORE STEPS ON THE CARDS

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

New measures planned will include sovereign bonds issuance to replenish the coffers of big state banks, and policies to support purchase of idle land and unsold flats from developers, Finance Minister Lan Foan said.

Analysts at OCBC Bank expect the central bank to deliver another cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio in November or December to support the planned bond issuance.

China watchers are skeptical the steps will produce a near-term boost in economic activity as most of the fresh funds will be used to reduce local government debt, but China's central bank said it will continue supportive monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth.

The PBOC also said it will study and revise money supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of the country's money supply.

Trump's election win could also prompt a stronger fiscal package in expectations of more economic headwinds for China. Trump threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, rattling China's industrial complex.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.5% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, above analysts' forecast of 6.9% in the Reuters poll. M2 grew 6.8% in September from a year ago.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 8.0% in October from a year earlier. Analysts had expected 8.1% growth, the same pace as in September.

The outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October, from 8.0% in September. Acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

In October, TSF fell to 1.4 trillion yuan from 3.76 trillion yuan in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected TSF of 1.55 trillion yuan.



Rise in Non-Oil Exports Strengthens Saudi Arabia’s Economic Diversification Efforts

King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, east of Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, east of Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
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Rise in Non-Oil Exports Strengthens Saudi Arabia’s Economic Diversification Efforts

King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, east of Saudi Arabia (SPA) 
King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, east of Saudi Arabia (SPA) 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports continued their upward trajectory, reflecting the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy. According to data from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), non-oil exports, including re-exports, grew by 10.7% in January, while excluding re-exports, they increased by 13.1%.

The International Trade Statistics Bulletin for January, published by GASTAT, reported a 2.4% growth in Saudi Arabia’s total merchandise exports compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, oil exports saw a slight decline of 0.4% in January. The share of oil exports in total exports also dropped from 74.8% in January 2024 to 72.7% in January 2025.

This increase in non-oil exports is a positive indicator of the success of Saudi Arabia’s economic policies in diversifying income sources beyond oil, according to Dr. Abdullah Al-Jassar, a member of the Saudi Association for Energy Economics. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al-Jassar emphasized that this growth did not happen by chance but was the result of a comprehensive strategy to develop the manufacturing sector, which has become a key driver of the non-oil economy. Notably, chemical industry products accounted for 23.7% of total non-oil exports.

He also highlighted that major improvements in logistics infrastructure, supported by the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program (NIDLP), have enhanced export efficiency and strengthened the connection between Saudi-made products and global markets—solidifying the Kingdom’s position as a key trade hub.

China: A Key Trade Partner

According to the latest data, China remains Saudi Arabia’s top trading partner, accounting for 15.2% of the Kingdom’s total exports, while imports from China made up 26.4% of total imports. This underscores Saudi Arabia’s strong presence in Asian trade, Al-Jassar noted.

Imports and Trade Surplus

Despite an 8.3% increase in imports, the trade surplus declined by 11.9%. However, Al-Jassar explained that this decline should be viewed within the broader context of Saudi Arabia’s structural economic transformation. The rise in imports is largely driven by an increase in production inputs that support industrial expansion rather than consumer goods.

Economic policy expert Ahmed Al-Shihri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the 10.7% growth in non-oil exports reflects the success of investments in industrial sectors, particularly the chemical industry, which accounted for 23.7% of non-oil exports. This growth indicates an improvement in production capacity and international competitiveness.

“The increase in non-oil exports is driven by enhancements in industrial infrastructure, government support for the private sector, and rising global demand for Saudi non-oil products. This shift reduces the Kingdom’s dependence on oil as the primary revenue source, making the economy more resilient to fluctuations in oil prices. Furthermore, the rise in the ratio of non-oil exports to imports—from 35.7% to 36.5%—suggests a healthier trade structure that supports long-term economic sustainability,” Al-Shihri added.

Vision 2030

Saudi Vision 2030 continues to drive non-oil sector growth through various initiatives, including enhancing local content, boosting exports, attracting foreign investments, and expanding economic and logistics zones. Al-Jassar believes that the continuation of these strategies will establish Saudi Arabia as an emerging export powerhouse in the coming years, further strengthening its global economic standing.