China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
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China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans in October, down sharply from September and falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a fall in new yuan loans to 700 billion yuan last month from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous month and against 738.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

"Corporate financing demand remains weak due to poor profitability," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huaxin Securities. "Credit demand may not pick up soon despite recent central bank policy measures."

The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns but Reuters calculated the October figures based on the bank's Jan-October data released on Monday, compared with the Jan-September figure.

The PBOC said new yuan loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan for the first ten months of the year.

Household loans, including mortgages, dropped to 160 billion yuan in October from 500 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dipped to 130 billion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

Chinese policymakers have been working to arrest further weakness in an economy stuttering in recent months from a prolonged property market downturn and swelling local government debt.

Among their goals is to tackle the side-effects from a mountain of debt left from previous stimulus dating back to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said China will step up counter-cyclical adjustment and affirm a supportive monetary policy stance, a central bank statement showed on Monday, citing a report Pan delivered to the top legislative body last week.

In late September, the central bank unveiled an aggressive stimulus package including rate cuts, and Chinese leaders pledged "necessary fiscal spending" to bring the economy back on track to meet a growth target of about 5%.

MORE STEPS ON THE CARDS

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

New measures planned will include sovereign bonds issuance to replenish the coffers of big state banks, and policies to support purchase of idle land and unsold flats from developers, Finance Minister Lan Foan said.

Analysts at OCBC Bank expect the central bank to deliver another cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio in November or December to support the planned bond issuance.

China watchers are skeptical the steps will produce a near-term boost in economic activity as most of the fresh funds will be used to reduce local government debt, but China's central bank said it will continue supportive monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth.

The PBOC also said it will study and revise money supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of the country's money supply.

Trump's election win could also prompt a stronger fiscal package in expectations of more economic headwinds for China. Trump threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, rattling China's industrial complex.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.5% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, above analysts' forecast of 6.9% in the Reuters poll. M2 grew 6.8% in September from a year ago.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 8.0% in October from a year earlier. Analysts had expected 8.1% growth, the same pace as in September.

The outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October, from 8.0% in September. Acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

In October, TSF fell to 1.4 trillion yuan from 3.76 trillion yuan in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected TSF of 1.55 trillion yuan.



Trump's Greenland Threat Puts Europe Inc back in Tariff Crosshairs

A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.
A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.
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Trump's Greenland Threat Puts Europe Inc back in Tariff Crosshairs

A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.
A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.

Just as European companies were getting used to last year's hard-won US trade tariff deals, President Donald Trump has put them back in his ​crosshairs with an explosive threat to place levies on nations that oppose his planned takeover of Greenland.

Trump on Saturday said he would put rising tariffs from February 1 on goods imported from EU members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, along with Britain and Norway, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, a step major EU states decried as blackmail.

On Sunday, European Union ambassadors reached broad agreement to intensify efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing those tariffs, while also readying a package of retaliatory measures should the duties go ahead, EU diplomats said.

The shock move has rattled through industry and sent shockwaves through markets amid fears of a return to the volatility of last year's trade war, which was only eased with tariff deals reached in the middle of the year.

"This is a very serious situation, the scale of which is unknown," Gabriel Picard, ‌chairman of the French ‌wine and spirits export lobby FEVS, told Reuters.

He said the industry had already seen a ‌20% ⁠to ​25% hit ‌to US activity in the second half of last year from previous trade measures, and new tariffs would bring a "material" impact.

But he said what was happening went far beyond sectoral issues. "It is more a matter of political contacts and political intent that must be taken to the highest level in Europe, so that Europe, once again, is united, coordinated, and if possible speaks with one voice."

STAND-OFF COULD BRING BACK LAST YEAR'S TRADE WAR

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said additional 10% import tariffs would take effect next month on goods from the listed European nations — all already subject to tariffs imposed by the US president last year of between 10% and 15%.

The bloc - which had an estimated $1.5 trillion in goods and services trade with the US in 2024 - looks set ⁠to fight back. Europe has major carmakers in Germany, drugmakers in Denmark and Ireland, and consumer and luxury goods firms from Italy to France.

EU leaders are set to discuss options at an emergency ‌summit in Brussels on Thursday, including a 93 billion euro ($107.7 billion) package of tariffs on ‍US imports that could automatically kick in on February 6 after a ‍six-month pause.

The other is the so far never used "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI), which could limit access to public tenders, investments or banking activity or restrict ‍trade in services, in which the US has a surplus with the bloc.

Analysts said the key question was how Europe responded - with a more "classic" trade war tit-for-tat tariff retaliation, or an even tougher approach.

"The most likely way forward is a return to the trade war that was put on hold in high-level US agreements with the UK and the EU in summer," said Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Teneo in London.

COMPANIES WILL LOOK TO TRADE WITH 'LESS PROBLEMATIC NATIONS'

German submarine maker ​TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard said the Greenland threat was perhaps the jolt that Europe needed to toughen its approach and focus on developing its own joint programmes to be more independent from the US.

"It is probably necessary... to get ⁠a kick in the shin to realise that we may have to suit up differently in the future," he told Reuters.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said the new threat created "another layer" of complexity for firms grappling with an already "chaotic" US market. Firms had little capacity to soak up new tariffs, she added.

"A trade war only creates losers," said Christophe Aufrere, director general of French autos association the PFA.

An official at a French industry association that represents the country's largest firms added the Greenland issue was turning tariffs into a "tool for political pressure", and called for the region to reduce its dependency on the US market.

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that some EU countries - Spain, Italy and others - were not on the tariff list, which would likely see "re-routing" of trade within the EU free trade bloc to avoid the taxes.

Analysts added the new tariffs - if imposed - would likely hurt Trump. They would push up US prices and lead to front-loading of exports before the tariffs kicked in, while encouraging companies to seek new markets.

"For Europe, this is a bad geopolitical headache and a moderately significant economic problem. But it could also backfire for Trump," said Holger Schmieding, London-based chief economist at Berenberg.

"Logic ‌still points to an outcome that respects Greenland's right to self-determination, strengthens security in the Arctic for NATO as a whole, and largely avoids economic damage for Europe and the US."


IMF Upgrades Outlook for Surprisingly Resilient World Economy to 3.3% Growth this Year

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo
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IMF Upgrades Outlook for Surprisingly Resilient World Economy to 3.3% Growth this Year

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo

An unexpectedly sturdy world economy is likely to shrug off President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies this year, thanks partly to a surge of investment in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia, the International Monetary Fund said in a report out Monday.

The 191-nation lending organization expects that global growth will come in at 3.3% this year, same as in 2025 but up from the 3.1% it had forecast for 2026 back in October, The Associated Press reported.

The world economy "continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty,'' IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and his colleague Tobias Adrian wrote in a blog post accompanying the latest update to the fund's World Economic Outlook.

The US economy, benefiting from the strongest pace of technology investment since 2001, is forecast to expand 2.4% this year, an upgrade on the fund's October forecast and on expected 2025 growth — both 2.1%.

China — the world's second-largest economy — is forecast to see 4.5% growth, an improvement on the 4.2% the IMF had predicted October, partly because a trade truce with the United States has reduced American tariffs on Chinese exports.

India, which has supplanted China as the world's fastest-growing major economy, is expected to see growth decelerate from 7.3% last year (when it was juiced by an unexpectedly strong second half) to a still-healthy 6.4% in 2026.


France Says Still Loyal to Syria Kurds, Hails Ceasefire

Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
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France Says Still Loyal to Syria Kurds, Hails Ceasefire

Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

France on Monday welcomed a ceasefire between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces and stressed it remained loyal to the latter who spearheaded the battle against the ISIS group.

"France is faithful to its allies," the foreign ministry said, urging all sides to respect the ceasefire deal, which will also see the Kurdish administration and forces integrate into the state after months of stalled negotiations.