China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
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China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans in October, down sharply from September and falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a fall in new yuan loans to 700 billion yuan last month from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous month and against 738.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

"Corporate financing demand remains weak due to poor profitability," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huaxin Securities. "Credit demand may not pick up soon despite recent central bank policy measures."

The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns but Reuters calculated the October figures based on the bank's Jan-October data released on Monday, compared with the Jan-September figure.

The PBOC said new yuan loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan for the first ten months of the year.

Household loans, including mortgages, dropped to 160 billion yuan in October from 500 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dipped to 130 billion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

Chinese policymakers have been working to arrest further weakness in an economy stuttering in recent months from a prolonged property market downturn and swelling local government debt.

Among their goals is to tackle the side-effects from a mountain of debt left from previous stimulus dating back to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said China will step up counter-cyclical adjustment and affirm a supportive monetary policy stance, a central bank statement showed on Monday, citing a report Pan delivered to the top legislative body last week.

In late September, the central bank unveiled an aggressive stimulus package including rate cuts, and Chinese leaders pledged "necessary fiscal spending" to bring the economy back on track to meet a growth target of about 5%.

MORE STEPS ON THE CARDS

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

New measures planned will include sovereign bonds issuance to replenish the coffers of big state banks, and policies to support purchase of idle land and unsold flats from developers, Finance Minister Lan Foan said.

Analysts at OCBC Bank expect the central bank to deliver another cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio in November or December to support the planned bond issuance.

China watchers are skeptical the steps will produce a near-term boost in economic activity as most of the fresh funds will be used to reduce local government debt, but China's central bank said it will continue supportive monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth.

The PBOC also said it will study and revise money supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of the country's money supply.

Trump's election win could also prompt a stronger fiscal package in expectations of more economic headwinds for China. Trump threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, rattling China's industrial complex.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.5% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, above analysts' forecast of 6.9% in the Reuters poll. M2 grew 6.8% in September from a year ago.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 8.0% in October from a year earlier. Analysts had expected 8.1% growth, the same pace as in September.

The outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October, from 8.0% in September. Acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

In October, TSF fell to 1.4 trillion yuan from 3.76 trillion yuan in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected TSF of 1.55 trillion yuan.



Saudi Economy Overcomes Tariff Disruptions, Grows 2.7% in Q1 2025

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi Economy Overcomes Tariff Disruptions, Grows 2.7% in Q1 2025

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Despite heightened global uncertainty stemming from the sweeping tariff policies imposed by US President Donald Trump since April, which have disrupted major economies worldwide, the Saudi economy demonstrated remarkable resilience by achieving real GDP growth of 2.7% in the first quarter of 2025 year-on-year. This growth was primarily driven by a 4.2% increase in non-oil activities.

According to newly released data from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), the growth figures coincide with the agency’s announcement of a comprehensive update to the GDP calculation methodology. The revisions are part of the Kingdom’s broader strategy to enhance economic transparency, improve the quality and reliability of statistical data, and align national economic indicators with global best practices to support developmental goals.

Preliminary estimates from GASTAT show that real GDP grew 2.7% in Q1 2025, compared to a contraction of 0.6% during the same period in 2024, though lower than the 4.4% growth recorded in Q4 2024. The current growth is attributed to the robust performance of non-oil sectors, alongside a 3.2% increase in government activity. Conversely, oil-related sectors declined by 1.4% year-on-year.

Economic Activity and Statistical Revisions

The updated GDP estimates for 2023 revealed a 14.1% increase from previous figures, equating to an added SAR 566 billion (USD 150.9 billion). Following the revision, the total GDP for 2023 now stands at SAR 4.5 trillion (USD 1.2 trillion).

The revised data also showed a significant increase in the contribution of the non-oil economy, now accounting for 53.2% of GDP—up 5.7% from earlier estimates. This is largely due to the expanded economic activity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Several economic sectors witnessed substantial growth, including construction (up 61%), wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels (up 29.8%), and transportation, storage, and communications (up 25.6%), in addition to notable growth across various other sectors.

Quarterly Comparison

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, real GDP grew by 0.9% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. This was driven by a 4.9% increase in government activity and a 1% rise in non-oil sectors, despite a 1.2% quarterly decline in oil activities.

Experts argue that Saudi Arabia’s ability to adapt to global economic disruptions - especially those triggered by US tariff policies - demonstrates the Kingdom’s resilience and capacity to sustain economic growth even under adverse conditions.

National Industries Drive Export Growth

Dr. Osama Al-Obaidi, advisor and professor of international commercial law, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the non-oil sector’s growth, despite global challenges such as US-China trade tensions and low oil prices, is a testament to the success of Saudi Arabia’s economic policies.

He attributed the significant increase in non-oil exports in Q1 2025 to a surge in chemical exports - particularly plastics, rubber, and related products - alongside a rise in re-exported goods. This growth also stems from the Kingdom’s voluntary oil production cuts in line with OPEC+ commitments, which reduced the share of oil exports in total trade.

“The growth in non-oil exports reflects the effectiveness of economic diversification under Vision 2030,” Al-Obaidi said. He highlighted the impact of large-scale investments in ports, such as King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and Jeddah Islamic Port, as well as the development of domestic and international airports and logistics infrastructure. Government support for industries like chemicals, food, and pharmaceuticals has also opened new international markets for Saudi products.

Diversification and Business Climate

Economic researcher Fadwa Al-Buardi emphasized that the 2.7% year-on-year and 0.9% quarterly GDP growth rates are highly significant. She said they underscore the Saudi economy’s ability to navigate global challenges while successfully diversifying its income sources and reducing dependence on oil.

Al-Buardi added that these indicators demonstrate the effectiveness of development strategies and structural reforms under Vision 2030, which aim to strengthen the non-oil sector and ensure sustainable growth.

She also noted that improvements in the business environment, along with major development projects, infrastructure investments, and industrial sector expansion, will continue to boost GDP. Al-Buardi believes Saudi Arabia will remain committed to enhancing its investment climate, increasing non-oil exports, and achieving financial stability through a diversified and sustainable economy.

She highlighted that non-oil sector growth is being driven by economic diversification, private sector stimulation, infrastructure development, streamlined investment procedures, and increased investments in industrial, service, and tech sectors. Government initiatives and incentives have further supported entrepreneurship and attracted both domestic and foreign investors.

National Accounts Reform

The comprehensive GDP update reflects GASTAT’s ongoing efforts to provide more comprehensive, modern, and high-quality statistical data that supports decision-makers, policymakers, investors, and researchers at both domestic and international levels.

The authority has recently implemented several improvements in its national accounts statistics, most notably the adoption of a chain-linked volume index methodology to calculate real GDP growth based on previous-year weights and prices - aligned with international accounting standards.

GASTAT began this update project in early 2024 through a series of extensive surveys for 2023, including the comprehensive economic survey, household income and expenditure survey, and agricultural survey. Administrative data sources were also expanded.

Using this data, GASTAT developed more detailed supply and use tables and provided GDP estimates using production, income, and expenditure approaches, covering 134 economic activities, up from 85 previously.