Global Markets Reel from Putin's Nuclear Threats

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
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Global Markets Reel from Putin's Nuclear Threats

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS

President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on Tuesday about revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine triggered immediate reactions in global financial markets, as investors rushed to safe haven assets.

Putin issued a warning to the US lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike after the administration of Joe Biden reportedly allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles deep into Russia.

The Russian President’s warnings sent markets to extreme volatility.

In this context, global stocks sharply fell while gold prices and the Japanese yen climbed amid rising geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it or the Republic of Belarus, ... with the use of conventional weapons, in a way that poses a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity.”

The spokesperson further said that Russia would view the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by Ukraine as an attack by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state against the country, potentially justifying the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow, according to NBC news.

Rise of safe-haven assets

Global stocks briefly fell and investors fled to safe-haven assets on Tuesday, as global markets reacted to escalating tensions between the world's two largest nuclear powers: Russia and the US.

Investors rushed to safe-haven assets including gold and the Japanese yen.

Wall Street’s fear index, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, jumped to 17,88, its highest level since the November 5 US elections. It then fell to 16.61.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 327 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% each. Treasurys increased as investors moved into the safe haven, driving yields lower.

Europe's main stock index touched its lowest level in three months on Tuesday, spurring investors to head to safer havens.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed 0.9% lower, after logging a third straight day of losses.

Metals and currencies under pressure

Meanwhile, base metals prices came under pressure on Tuesday as some investors chose safe-haven assets due to signs of escalating tensions between Russia and the United States over Ukraine.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.3% to $9,042 per metric ton in official open-outcry trading. Spot gold prices rose by about 1%.

Meanwhile, LME aluminium prices were stable at $2,607 in official activity as the market digested China's plan to remove a tax refund on exports of some aluminium products.

Lead lost 0.4% to $1,983 due to the second day of a significant inflow of the metal to the LME-registered warehouses in Singapore.

Zinc fell 0.1% to $2,947.5, tin eased 0.4% to $28,900 and nickel rose 1.2% to $15,915.

In currency markets, the Japanese yen rose 0.7% and 0.36% against the euro and US dollar respectively.

“Typical risk-off move in forex following the headline,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at Bofa, referring to the reaction to the Kremlin statement.

“The market has been complacent on geopolitical risks, focusing on other themes,” he added. “Positioning has been a long risk, getting even more stretched after the US elections.”

In return, crude oil futures were down slightly. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate, scheduled for delivery in December, fell 0.53% to $68.79.

Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of Brent, scheduled for delivery in January, fell 0.38% to $73.02.



UK Inflation Jumps to 2.3%

FILE PHOTO: A view of HSBC building in Canary Wharf financial district in London, Britain, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Susannah Ireland/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of HSBC building in Canary Wharf financial district in London, Britain, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Susannah Ireland/File Photo
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UK Inflation Jumps to 2.3%

FILE PHOTO: A view of HSBC building in Canary Wharf financial district in London, Britain, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Susannah Ireland/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of HSBC building in Canary Wharf financial district in London, Britain, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/Susannah Ireland/File Photo

British inflation jumped by more than expected last month to rise back above the Bank of England's 2% target and underlying price growth gathered speed too, showing why the BoE is moving cautiously on interest rate cuts.

Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.3% in October, pushed up almost entirely by an increase in regulated domestic energy tariffs, after a 1.7% rise in September which was the first time the inflation rate had fallen below the BoE's target since 2021, Reuters reported.

Sterling strengthened by almost a third of a cent against the US dollar after the data was published before giving back most of that rise. Interest rate futures priced in a slightly slower pace of rate cuts and bond prices fell.
The BoE's most recent forecast and a Reuters poll of economists had both pointed to a weaker CPI reading of 2.2%.

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think tank, said a rise had been expected as last year's energy price falls dropped out of the annual calculation and the price cap increased in October.
"But the clean sweep of higher headline, core and services inflation has delivered a triple dose of bad news for families and policymakers alike," he said.
The increase took inflation to a six-month high and represented the biggest month-to-month rise in the annual CPI rate since inflation peaked in October 2022.
Services inflation - which the BoE views as a key measure of domestically generated price pressure - rose to 5.0% in October from 4.9% in September, the Office for National Statistics said, in line with BoE and market expectations.
But core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, picked up to 3.3% from September's 3.2%, bucking market expectations for a fall.
The BoE said this month it expected headline inflation to tick up to 2.4% and 2.5% in November and December. Price growth is likely to approach 3% in the second half of next year, it says. Some private-sector economists think inflation will rise close to 3% in early 2025.
GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
The BoE has said the first budget of Britain's new government will probably add to inflation next year and US President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose sweeping import tariffs adds to uncertainty about the outlook.
Monica George Michail, an associate economist at Britain's National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, said interest rates might stay elevated for longer.
"This outlook reflects forecasted inflationary pressures stemming from the recently announced budget, in addition to heightened global uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Trump presidency," she said.
The new government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to speed up Britain's economic growth but has come under fire from employers for the higher employment taxes that they will have to pay from April next year.
The BoE has said that could lead to higher prices as well as job losses.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said the government was trying to reduce the impact of the higher cost of living, including with a latest increase in the minimum wage, "but we know there is more to do."
Mel Stride, the Conservative opposition's would-be finance minister, said the government's fiscal watchdog had already been predicting higher inflation as a result of the budget.
"What is worrying about today's announcement is that inflation is running ahead of expectations and official forecasts state these figures are not expected to improve," he said.
There is also upward pressure on prices from the jobs market where many employers face a shortage of candidates.
Data last week showed British pay grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the three months to the end of September. But BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said wage growth was stuck at levels that were too high for the central bank.
Investors on Wednesday were pricing around 60 basis points of BoE rate reductions by the end of 2025, equivalent to between two and three cuts, down from about 65 basis points of cuts expected by investors before the inflation data.
Two-year British government bond yields, which are sensitive to interest rate speculation, rose by around 4 basis points.
Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday stressed the BoE's message that borrowing costs are likely to come down only gradually.
There were signs of some weaker inflation pressures in the pipeline. Prices charged by factories for their goods fell by 0.8% in the 12 months to October, the biggest drop since October 2020 during the COVID pandemic.