Moody’s Hands France Surprise Downgrade over Deteriorating Finances

People take selfies in front of the Fontaine des Mers with the French National Assembly in the background during the inauguration of the Christmas market at the Place de la Concorde in Paris, on December 13, 2024. (AFP)
People take selfies in front of the Fontaine des Mers with the French National Assembly in the background during the inauguration of the Christmas market at the Place de la Concorde in Paris, on December 13, 2024. (AFP)
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Moody’s Hands France Surprise Downgrade over Deteriorating Finances

People take selfies in front of the Fontaine des Mers with the French National Assembly in the background during the inauguration of the Christmas market at the Place de la Concorde in Paris, on December 13, 2024. (AFP)
People take selfies in front of the Fontaine des Mers with the French National Assembly in the background during the inauguration of the Christmas market at the Place de la Concorde in Paris, on December 13, 2024. (AFP)

Credit ratings agency Moody's unexpectedly downgraded France's rating on Friday, adding pressure on the country's new prime minister to corral divided lawmakers into backing his efforts to rein in the strained public finances.

The downgrade, which came outside of Moody's regular review schedule for France, brings its rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2" with a stable outlook for future moves and puts it in line with those from rival agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch.

It comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this year.

His predecessor Michel Barnier failed to pass a 2025 budget and was toppled earlier this month by left-wing and far-right lawmakers opposed to his 60-billion-euro belt-tightening push that he had hoped would rein in France's spiraling fiscal deficit.

The political crisis forced the outgoing government to propose emergency legislation this week to temporarily roll over 2024 spending limits and tax thresholds into next year until a more permanent 2025 budget can be passed.

"Looking ahead, there is now a very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year," Moody's said in a statement.

"As a result, we forecast that France's public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario," it added.

Barnier had intended to cut the budget deficit next year to 5% of economic output from 6.1% this year with a 60-billion-euro package of spending cuts and tax hikes.

But left-wing and far-right lawmakers were opposed to much of the belt-tightening drive and voted a no confidence measure against Barnier's government, bringing it down.

Bayrou, who has long warned about France's weak public finances, said on Friday shortly after taking office that he faced a "Himalaya" of a challenge reining in the deficit.

Outgoing Finance Minister Antoine Armand said he took note of Moody's decision, adding there was a will to reduce the deficit as indicated by the nomination of Bayrou.

The political crisis put French stocks and debt under pressure, pushing the risk premium on French government bonds at one point to their highest level over 12 years.



OPEC+ Credits Voluntary Oil Cuts for Market Stability

The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)
The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ Credits Voluntary Oil Cuts for Market Stability

The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)
The OPEC logo behind a model of an oil excavator. (Reuters)

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) commended the additional voluntary oil production cuts implemented by eight member states, saying the move played a key role in supporting market stability.

During its 59th meeting, held virtually on Saturday, the alliance opted to keep its current oil output policy unchanged, while underscoring the importance of full compliance with production quotas.

A statement published on the official website of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confirmed that OPEC+ members showed “a high level of commitment” to crude production targets during January and February 2025.

The committee reviewed production figures for those months and noted general compliance among both OPEC and non-OPEC signatories to the Declaration of Cooperation. However, it also singled out countries that failed to meet their quotas and stressed the need for full compliance and compensation for any overproduction.

Member states were urged to submit updated compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by April 15.

The committee reiterated its commitment to monitoring adherence to the production adjustments agreed at the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in December 2024, as well as the additional voluntary cuts announced during the 52nd JMMC session in February 2024.

The JMMC retains the authority to call additional meetings or request a full ministerial session if needed.

The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for May 28. The body, which includes oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other top producers, typically meets every two months and may recommend policy changes.

Separately, eight OPEC+ countries announced on Thursday that they would accelerate the easing of production cuts by increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May—more than triple the previously planned 135,000 barrels.