Oil Prices Drop on Soft Chinese Spending Data

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Prices Drop on Soft Chinese Spending Data

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oilfield in Midland, Texas US August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil futures dropped from their highest levels in weeks on Monday, pressured by weakness in consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer.

Brent crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.71%, to $73.96 a barrel by 1300 GMT after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22.

US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 65 cents, or 0.91%, to $70.64 after registering its highest close since Nov. 7 in the previous session.

Chinese industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, but retail sales were slower than expected, keeping pressure on Beijing to ramp up stimulus for a fragile economy facing US trade tariffs under a second Trump administration, Reuters reported.

"Risk off following some weaker than expected Chinese economic data is weighing on crude prices. Market participants are still awaiting guidance how Chinese officials plan to stimulate the economy," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

The Chinese outlook contributed the decision by oil producer group OPEC+ to postpone plans for higher output until April.

"Whatever stimulus is being deployed, consumers are not buying into it; and without a serious sea-change in personal spending behaviour, China's economic fortunes will be stunted," said John Evans at oil broker PVM.

Traders also took profits while awaiting the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates this week.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that light profit-taking was to be expected after prices jumped more than 6% last week.

He also noted that many banks and funds are likely to have closed their books given reduced appetite for positions during the holiday season.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, which will also provide an updated look at how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025 and perhaps into 2026.

Lower interest rates can stimulate economic growth and increase oil demand.

Also limiting oil price declines were supply disruption concerns on the potential for more US sanctions against Russia and Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday that the US is exploring additional sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and could target Chinese banks to limit oil revenue that helps to fund Russia as it continues the war in Ukraine.

Fresh US sanctions on entities trading Iranian oil are already driving prices of the crude sold to China to its highest in years, with the incoming Trump administration expected to ramp up pressure on Iran.



EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices continued to declined on Tuesday morning on milder weather forecasts for next week, high wind speeds and stable supply.

The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.61 euros at 46.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 0947 GMT, according to LSEG data.

The contract for March was down 0.52 euro at 46.63 euros/MWh.

In Britain, the front-month contract fell by 2.04 pence to 116.76 pence per therm.

In north-west Europe, although another cold snap is forecast from Friday over the weekend, the latest forecasts are showing milder temperatures than yesterday from Jan. 15, according to LSEG data, Reuters reported.

Wind speeds are expected to remain quite strong today, limiting gas demand.

However, in north-west Europe, gas-for-power demand is expected 36 million cubic metres (mcm) per day higher at 78 mcm/day on the day-ahead.

"Wind speeds are expected still high today, before dropping sharply tomorrow with the cold spell arriving," said LSEG gas analyst Saku Jussila.

In Britain, Peak wind generation is forecast at around 15.1 gigawatts (GW) today and 14.7 GW tomorrow, Elexon data showed.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan said EU net storage withdrawals have slowed due to a more comfortable spot balance but the storage gap compared to last year remains high. On 5 January, EU gas stocks were 69.94% full on average, compared to 84.96% last year.

Looking further ahead, analysts at Jefferies expect a tight year for global gas markets due to project delays and higher-than-expected demand.

"European and Asian LNG spot gas prices in 2025 could surpass those of 2024, driven by Europe's increased gas injection needs and the loss of Russian exports outpacing the expected growth in global LNG supply," they said.

"Post 2025, the market is expected to loosen with an additional 175 million tonnes of new supply coming online between 2026 and 2030, primarily from the US and Qatar," they added.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 0.91 euro at 73.45 euros a metric ton.