China Flags More Policy Measures to Bolster Yuan

 People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)
People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)
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China Flags More Policy Measures to Bolster Yuan

 People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)
People shop around for prosperity decorations for the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, at a New Year Bazaar in Beijing, Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (AP)

China announced more tools to support its weak currency on Monday, unveiling plans to park more dollars in Hong Kong to bolster the yuan and to improve capital flows by allowing companies to borrow more overseas.

A dominant dollar, sliding Chinese bond yields and the threat of higher trade barriers when Donald Trump begins his US presidency next week have left the yuan wallowing around 16-month lows, spurring the central bank into action.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tried other means to arrest the sliding yuan since late last year, including warnings against speculative moves and efforts to shore up yields.

On Monday, authorities warned again against speculating against the yuan. The PBOC raised the limits for offshore borrowings by companies, ostensibly to allow more foreign exchange to flow in.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng meanwhile told the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong that the central bank will substantially increase the proportion of China's foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong, without providing details.

China's foreign reserves stood at around $3.2 trillion at the end of December. Not much is known about where the reserves are invested.

"Today's comments from the PBOC indicate that currency stability remains an important priority for the central bank, despite the market often discussing the possibility of intentional devaluation to offset tariffs," said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

"Increasing China's foreign reserves will give more ammunition to defend the currency if the market situation eventually necessitates it."

China's onshore yuan traded at 7.3318 per dollar as of 0450 GMT on Monday, not far from a 16-month low of 7.3328 hit on Friday.

It has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the US election in early November, on worries that Trump's threats of fresh trade tariffs will heap more pressure on the struggling Chinese economy.

The central bank has been setting its official midpoint guidance on the firmer side of market projections since mid-November, which analysts say is a sign of unease over the yuan's decline.

Monday's announcements underscore the PBOC's challenges and its juggling act as it seeks to revive economic growth by keeping cash conditions easy, while also trying to douse a runaway bond rally and simultaneously stabilize the currency amid political and economic uncertainty.

It has in recent days unveiled other measures. In efforts to prevent yields from falling too much and to control circulation of yuan offshore, it said it is suspending treasury bond purchases but plans to issue huge amounts of bills in Hong Kong.

Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said while China's onshore market has a much better pool of yuan deposits, Hong Kong plays a "significant role with higher turnover driven by FX swaps and spot transactions."

"This means that Hong Kong can be a venue for supporting the yuan through trading activities and potential investments."

Data on Monday showed China's exports gained momentum in December, with imports also showing recovery, although the export spike at the year-end was in part fueled by factories rushing inventory overseas as they braced for increased trade risks under a Trump presidency.



US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.