US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.



China's Xi Holds Rare Meeting with Business Leaders amid Slowing Economy, US Tensions

01 February 2025, Indonesia, Bandung: In this photo illustration, China Artificial Intelligence Deepseek Website and logo is displayed on a smartphone with Flag Of China in the background. Photo: Algi Febri Sugita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
01 February 2025, Indonesia, Bandung: In this photo illustration, China Artificial Intelligence Deepseek Website and logo is displayed on a smartphone with Flag Of China in the background. Photo: Algi Febri Sugita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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China's Xi Holds Rare Meeting with Business Leaders amid Slowing Economy, US Tensions

01 February 2025, Indonesia, Bandung: In this photo illustration, China Artificial Intelligence Deepseek Website and logo is displayed on a smartphone with Flag Of China in the background. Photo: Algi Febri Sugita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
01 February 2025, Indonesia, Bandung: In this photo illustration, China Artificial Intelligence Deepseek Website and logo is displayed on a smartphone with Flag Of China in the background. Photo: Algi Febri Sugita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting on Monday with some of the biggest names in China's technology sector, including Alibaba founder Jack Ma, in what sources previously billed as an effort to boost private-business sentiment.

The meeting highlights a turnaround in Beijing's approach to its tech giants after a regulatory clampdown a few years ago, as well as more recent concerns about a slowdown in economic growth and efforts by the US to stunt its technological development, Reuters reported.

Liang Wenfeng, founder of DeepSeek, a startup that is threatening to upset the technology world order with its AI models, also attended, two sources familiar with the meeting said.
Liang was not pictured in CCTV's video, and DeepSeek did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Other private business leaders who attended the symposium included Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, Xiaomi's Lei Jun, BYD's Wang Chuanfu, Unitree's Wang Xingxing, and CATL's Robin Zeng, a video published by CCTV showed.
The meeting was also attended by Meituan's Wang Xing, China Feihe's Leng Youbin and Will Semiconductor founder Yu Renrong, the video showed.
Tencent's Pony Ma was there too, a source familiar with the matter said, declining to be named as the meeting details were not public. Tencent did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Xi delivered a speech after listening to representatives of private companies, official news agency Xinhua said. The report did not provide any details about the symposium, held in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources, Xi planned to chair a symposium to boost private sector sentiment on Monday that would be attended by the country's business leaders, including Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma.
The symposium would be aimed at boosting private-sector sentiment, and Xi was expected to encourage company chiefs to expand their businesses domestically and internationally amid an intensifying China-US technology war, the sources had said.
Investors on Monday were scouring pictures and footage of the meeting to spot top bosses and trading accordingly, with Baidu shares down more than 8% - the largest loser on the Hang Seng index - after no top executive was spotted.
Founders of Baidu and Bytedance were among the prominent private business leaders in China who did not attend the meeting, two sources familiar with the matter. Neither company immediately responded to requests for comment.
The presence of top executives and companies at these high-profile events are typically seen by foreign investors as a sign of the businesses or individuals that are favored by the government.
ACHIEVING SELF-SUFFICIENCY
The meeting took place against the backdrop of US tariffs threatening to pile more pressure on the world's second-largest economy, which has been reeling from weak domestic consumption and a destabilizing debt crisis in the property sector.
The private business sector contributes more than 50% to China’s tax revenue, more than 60% of its economic output, 70% of tech innovation and 80% of urban employment, according to official estimates.
The meeting also comes as global excitement over DeepSeek's AI platform has spilled over into investor speculation about its potential positive effects on China's broader tech sector, and has triggered calls for an upward repricing of Chinese assets.
Xi has long stressed the need for China to achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductors and wants the country to use AI to drive economic development.
But China's efforts have been hampered by export control measures on chips imposed by Washington which is worried Beijing could use advanced semiconductors to boost its military capabilities.
"It's a tacit acknowledgement that the Chinese government needs private-sector firms for its tech rivalry with the US," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong.
"The government has no choice but to support them if it wants to compete with the US."
'POTENTIAL RISKS'
Tech shares in Hong Kong have roared higher in recent weeks on a combination of optimism about the DeepSeek AI breakthrough and a thawing of authorities' approach to internet giants.
The Hang Seng technology index hit a three-year high in morning trade on Monday, having rallied on Friday after Reuters reported Xi was to chair Monday's symposium. It slipped in volatile afternoon trade and was last down 1.3%.
Xi first chaired a high-profile symposium for the private sector in 2018, six years after he came to power. At the time, he pledged tax cuts and a level playing field while reaffirming that private firms would have access to financial backing.
"Despite the rising opportunities in the case of DeepSeek, it is also about guiding the private sector in the government-led direction and containing the potential risks to compete with the US," said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis.
"Still, the regulatory environment is the black box. As most AI development happens in the private sector, we cannot entirely rule out the outcome of a tighter-than-market-expected regulatory environment than we see now."
Attendance by Jack Ma, in particular, has the potential to boost business confidence, analysts have said.
The once high-profile entrepreneur largely withdrew from public life after the IPO of his fintech company Ant was halted by authorities in 2020 – a move triggered by a speech he gave that year criticizing China's regulatory system.
His business empire and the wider technology industry were then targeted by a regulatory crackdown, with his time out of the limelight symbolizing a reversal of fortunes for China's private sector.