Gold Advances as Softer Core CPI Data Revives Fed Easing Hopes

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Advances as Softer Core CPI Data Revives Fed Easing Hopes

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices extended gains on Wednesday, as the dollar dipped after US core inflation data came in softer than expected, abating inflation pressures and rekindling expectations that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle may not be over yet.

Spot gold gained 0.4% to $2,688.19 per ounce by 0915 a.m. ET (1415 GMT). US gold futures were up 1.1% to $2,711.40.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI increased 3.2% on an annual basis, compared with an expected 3.3% rise, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

"Core CPI came in a little bit below expectations. This is a bit of a positive for gold... The corollary to this is that the Fed will not necessarily exclude the possibility of cutting rates," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

"The probability of a rate cut in January is kind of nothing, but we are pricing some rate cuts by the end of the year here."

Markets now expect the Fed to deliver 40 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by year-end, compared with about 31 bps before the inflation data.

The dollar index eased 0.4%, making bullion more attractive for other currency holders. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also slipped.

Investors are worried that the potential for tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump re-enters the White House next week could stoke inflation and limit the Fed's ability to lower rates to a greater extent.

Non-yielding bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, although higher rates diminish its appeal.

However, the uncertainties around Trump's tariffs and trade policies for the global economy and their potential impact on growth are likely to sustain safe-haven demand for gold, said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Spot silver firmed 1% to $30.23 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $938.70, and palladium added 2% to $960.25.



Oil Gains Capped by Uncertainty over Sanctions Impact

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
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Oil Gains Capped by Uncertainty over Sanctions Impact

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack is seen at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Ernest Scheyder/File Photo

Oil prices crept higher on Wednesday as the market focused on potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russian tankers, though gains were tempered by a lack of clarity on their impact.

Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.08 a barrel by 1250 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 26 cents, or 0.34%, at $77.76.

The latest round of US sanctions on Russian oil could disrupt Russian oil supply and distribution significantly, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday, adding that "the full impact on the oil market and on access to Russian supply is uncertain".

A fresh round of sanctions angst seems to be supporting prices, along with the prospect of a weekly US stockpile draw, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, Reuters reported.

"Tankers carrying Russian crude seems to be struggling offloading their cargoes around the world, potentially driving some short-term tightness," he added.

The key question remains how much Russian supply will be lost in the global market and whether alternative measures can offset the , shortfall, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.

OPEC, meanwhile, expects global oil demand to rise by 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, maintaining a similar growth rate to 2025, the producer group said on Wednesday.

The 2026 forecast aligns with OPEC's view that oil demand will keep rising for the next two decades. That is in contrast with the IEA, which expects demand to peak this decade as the world shifts to cleaner energy.

The market also found some support from a drop in US crude oil stocks last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels last week while gasoline inventories rose by 5.4 million barrels and distillates climbed by 4.88 million barrels, API sources said.

A Reuters poll found that analysts expected US crude oil stockpiles to have fallen by about 1 million barrels in the week to Jan. 10. Stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).

On Tuesday the EIA trimmed its outlook for global demand in 2025 to 104.1 million barrels per day (bpd) while expecting supply of oil and liquid fuel to average 104.4 million bpd.

It predicted that Brent crude will drop 8% to average $74 a barrel in 2025 and fall further to $66 in 2026 while WTI was projected to average $70 in 2025, dropping to $62 in 2026.