Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

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Oil market momentum was kept in check on Monday as prices fluctuated in and out of negative territory, with traders on edge despite the US pulling back from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, reducing immediate concern over oil supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.14 a barrel by 1200 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.27, down 39 cents, or 0.5%.

Both benchmarks oscillated between moderate gains and losses in early trading.

The US swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said late on Sunday, Reuters reported.

Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the US, data from analytics firm Kpler shows.

"Even if the sanctions didn't take place, this still creates nervousness that Trump will bully whoever needs to be bullied to get his way," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

"Fundamentally, the market is surprisingly tight," said Schieldrop, referring to time spreads showing that the price of crude oil for quicker delivery is rising.

Gains were limited by Trump's repeated call on Friday for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help to end to the war in Ukraine.

"One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil ... That war will stop right away," Trump said.

Trump has also threatened to hit Russia "and other participating countries" with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talk about the Ukraine war and energy prices.

"They are positioning for negotiations," said John Driscoll at Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy, adding that this creates volatility in oil markets.

He added that oil markets are probably skewed a little bit to the downside, with Trump looking to boost US output and try to secure overseas markets for US crude.

"He's going to want to muscle into some of the OPEC market share; so in that sense he's kind of a competitor," Driscoll said.

However, OPEC and its allies including Russia have yet to react to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April.

Both oil benchmarks registered their first weekly decline in five weeks on easing concern last week over potential supply disruptions resulting from the latest sanctions on Russia.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they do not expect a big hit to Russian production because higher freight rates have encouraged non-sanctioned ships to move Russian oil while the deepening discount on the affected Russian ESPO grade attracts price-sensitive buyers.

Still, JP Morgan analysts said some risk premium is justified given that nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions.

"The application of sanctions on the Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate," they added in a note.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing data on Monday was weaker than expected, adding fresh concerns over energy demand.



Japan Sets New 2035 Emissions Cut Goal 

A chimney is seen at the Keihin Industrial Zone as Mount Fuji (background L), Japan's highest mountain at 3,776 meters (12,388 feet), looms in the background as viewed from the observation deck of Kawasaki Marien in Kawasaki on January 24, 2022. (AFP)
A chimney is seen at the Keihin Industrial Zone as Mount Fuji (background L), Japan's highest mountain at 3,776 meters (12,388 feet), looms in the background as viewed from the observation deck of Kawasaki Marien in Kawasaki on January 24, 2022. (AFP)
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Japan Sets New 2035 Emissions Cut Goal 

A chimney is seen at the Keihin Industrial Zone as Mount Fuji (background L), Japan's highest mountain at 3,776 meters (12,388 feet), looms in the background as viewed from the observation deck of Kawasaki Marien in Kawasaki on January 24, 2022. (AFP)
A chimney is seen at the Keihin Industrial Zone as Mount Fuji (background L), Japan's highest mountain at 3,776 meters (12,388 feet), looms in the background as viewed from the observation deck of Kawasaki Marien in Kawasaki on January 24, 2022. (AFP)

Japan Tuesday pledged to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 60 percent in the next decade from 2013 levels but climate campaigners said the target fell short of what was needed under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming.

Under the Paris accord, each country is supposed to provide a headline figure to the United Nations for cutting heat-trapping emissions by 2035, and a detailed blueprint for how to achieve this.

Japan is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels as the world's fifth largest single-country emitter of carbon dioxide after China, the United States, India and Russia.

On Tuesday Tokyo's environment ministry said the country would slash emissions 60 percent by the 2035 fiscal year.

The world's fourth-largest economy also aims to cut emissions by 73 percent by fiscal 2040 as part of its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) -- a voluntary pledge to be submitted to the UN later on Tuesday.

Nearly 200 nations had been required to deliver their fresh climate plans by February 10 but just 10 did so on time, according to a UN database tracking the submissions.

The Japanese ministry said Tuesday that its "ambitious targets (are) aligned with the global 1.5 degree Celsius goal and on a straight pathway towards the achievement of net zero by 2050".

But Masayoshi Iyoda from international environmental group 350.org noted that scientists say an emissions cut of 81 percent by 2035 is needed for Japan to honor its commitments to the 1.5 degree objective.

"This is a major failure in Japan's attempt to transition to a future of renewable energy that is fair and just," he told AFP.

Kazue Suzuki of Greenpeace Japan also said the new target was "far too low", calling for a 78 percent reduction given "our responsibility as an industrially advanced country".

- Renewable future? -

UN climate chief Simon Stiell has called the latest round of national pledges "the most important policy documents of this century".

Yet just a handful of major polluters handed in upgraded targets on time, with China, India and the European Union the biggest names on a lengthy absentee list.

There is no penalty for submitting late targets, which are not legally binding but act as an accountability measure to ensure countries are taking climate change seriously and doing their fair share toward achieving the Paris goals.

In 2016, Japan committed to a 26 percent reduction in emissions by 2030. It strengthened this in 2021 to 46 percent by 2030 compared to 2013 levels.

The Japanese government also on Tuesday approved its latest Strategic Energy Plan -- which includes an intention to make renewables the country's top power source by 2040.

Nearly 14 years after the Fukushima disaster, Japan also sees a major role for nuclear power to help it meet growing energy demand from AI and microchip factories.

So a previous pledge to "reduce reliance on nuclear power as much as possible" was dropped from the new plan.

A draft plan released in December had said Japan would jointly promote renewable energy and hydrogen fuel with its ally the United States.

But after President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the Paris Agreement last month, mentions of a US-led clean economy framework were deleted.

"We've made certain tweaks" following Trump's announcements, an industry ministry official told reporters Monday.

But "it doesn't mean Japan's broader efforts towards a 'green transformation' will be changed significantly", he said.

Nearly 70 percent of Japan's power needs in 2023 were met by power plants burning coal, gas and oil -- a figure Tokyo wants to slash to 30-40 percent over the next 15 years.

Almost all these fossil fuels must be imported, at a cost of around $470 million per day according to Japanese customs.

Under the new plans, renewables such as solar and wind are expected to account for 40-50 percent of electricity generation by 2040.