EUROPE GAS-Prices Edge Lower for 3nd Session Ukraine Peace Prospects Dominate

Model of natural gas pipeline and EU flag, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and EU flag, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT
20

EUROPE GAS-Prices Edge Lower for 3nd Session Ukraine Peace Prospects Dominate

Model of natural gas pipeline and EU flag, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and EU flag, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices on Thursday extended their decline from Tuesday's two-year high as the market watched for further developments on efforts by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine.

The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 2.85 euros at 53.05 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $16.21/mmBtu, by 1003 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The contract remained well below an intra-day high of 59.27 euros/MWh reached on Tuesday, its highest level since February 2023.

The Dutch April contract was down 2.99 euros at 52.93 euros/MWh.

In Britain, the front-month contract was down 3.76 pence at 129.09 p/therm, Reuters reported.

The unilateral peace talks started by president Trump yesterday should bring some relief to markets because they decreases the chance of large-scale disruptions, said Klaas Dozeman, market analyst at Brainchild Commodity Intelligence.

Dozeman added, however, that it is unclear what role gas might play in any future scenario.

US President Donald Trump spoke directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin and announced the start of negotiations.

Further price pressure came from a push by several EU member states to lower gas storage targets, as well as the prospect of warmer weather, a trading source said.

EU gas storage sites are currently 47.24% full after cold weather and reduced Russian supplies triggered a faster drawdown of stocks, Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows.

"It has become increasingly likely that cold weather will end in Western-Europe after Feb 19. Instead a mix of spring and autumn will conquer the continent with temperatures well above norms and ample sun and/or wind," Dozeman said.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 1.52 euros at 81.07 euros a metric ton.



Oil Slumps 3% as Trump's Tariffs Expected to Impede Demand

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
TT
20

Oil Slumps 3% as Trump's Tariffs Expected to Impede Demand

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices fell by over 3% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs which investors worry will enflame a global trade war that will curtail economic growth and limit fuel demand.

Brent futures were down $2.66, or 3.55%, to $72.29 a barrel by 0918 GMT US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.69, or 3.75%, to $69.02.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 10% minimum tariff on most goods imported to the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries, initiating a global trade war that threatens to drive up inflation and stall US and worldwide economic growth, Reuters reported.

"The US tariff announcement clearly caught markets off guard. Pre-announcement speculation suggested a flat 15-20% tariff, but the final decision was more hawkish," Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said in an email.

"For oil prices, the focus now shifts to the global growth outlook, which is likely to be revised downward due to these higher-than-expected tariffs," he added.

Imports of oil, gas and refined products were exempted from the new tariffs, the White House said on Wednesday.

UBS analysts on Wednesday cut their oil forecasts by $3 per barrel over 2025-26 to $72 per barrel, citing weaker fundamentals.

Traders and analysts now expect more price volatility in the near term, as the tariffs may change as countries try to negotiate lower rates or impose retaliatory levies.

"Countermeasures are imminent and judging by the initial market reaction, recession and stagflation have become terrifying possibilities," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

"As tariffs are ultimately paid for by domestic consumers and businesses, their cost will inevitably increase impeding the rise in economic wealth."

In other news, US Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed US crude inventories rose by a surprisingly large 6.2 million barrels last week, against analysts' forecasts for a decline of 2.1 million barrels.

Market participants are also awaiting the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, which will discuss Kazakh output.