Dollar Dithers as Safety Bid Flows to the Yen

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
TT

Dollar Dithers as Safety Bid Flows to the Yen

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/ File Photo

The yen was investors' safe harbour of choice on Tuesday and it touched a five-month high as fears about a tariff-driven slowdown in US economic growth have rattled US stocks and the dollar.

The Nasdaq fell 4% overnight and the S&P 500 slid 2.7% as equities caught up with what bonds and currencies have been saying for weeks: US growth is going to slow down.

The yen made a five-month peak of 146.55 per dollar before steadying around 147.24. China's yuan also rose, ticking 0.2% higher to 7.2426 per dollar, Reuters reported.

Other moves in the foreign exchange market were more muted, and analysts noted that a lot of the shifts in currencies had already happened. The dollar is down more than 7% from a six-month high it hit in January versus the yen and the greenback's apparently dulled lustre as a safe-haven coincides with a big rally in the euro and a broader re-think of how tariffs and a trade war play out in FX markets, Reuters reported.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was a modest loser on Monday and loitered around its 50-day moving average at $0.6266 on Tuesday. Sterling was holding on above its 200-day moving average at $1.2875 and the euro was steady just above $1.08.

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are actually stronger since US President Donald Trump hit the two countries with 25% tariffs. Europe's common currency is riding high on German plans to borrow and spend on defence and infrastructure.

"Historically, the dollar outperforms when we get a solid rise in volatility, but when the US economy and US equity market are the central point of concern, this is now limiting the attractiveness of the dollar," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.

The turmoil in equities was triggered by a Trump Fox News interview, in which the president talked about a "period of transition," dashing investor bets he would back away from his aggressive policies.

The dollar index, however, had a hard time rallying and was mostly flat as small rises against the Aussie and sterling were offset by losses on the yen, leaving it at 103.8.

In a week, as US bond yields have gone down and global yields rose, the gap between 10-year US and German yields has shrunk 33 basis points and the gap between US and Japanese yields has shrunk 17 bps.

Germany's Greens vowed on Monday to block plans for a massive increase in state borrowing to revamp the military, but forwarded rival proposals in a bid for compromise and the euro handed back hardly any of its massive gains from last week.



Saudi Arabia Stockpiles Surplus Oil Production to Face Global Crises

Employees at Aramco (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Employees at Aramco (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT

Saudi Arabia Stockpiles Surplus Oil Production to Face Global Crises

Employees at Aramco (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Employees at Aramco (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia has long followed a clear and transparent approach to preserving stability in global energy markets. Historically, it has consistently adhered to all decisions issued by the OPEC+ alliance and played a leading role alongside other producers to ensure compliance and promote the collective good.

Recently, the Kingdom briefly increased production volumes. However, the additional output was neither marketed domestically nor exported abroad. Instead, it was directed as a precautionary measure to strengthen strategic reserves, improve supply flows between the country’s eastern and western regions, and rebalance stocks held in overseas storage facilities.

Asharq Al-Awsat reached out to energy specialists to understand the significance of this move for energy security. Experts explained that building strategic reserves allows Saudi Arabia to respond swiftly to customer needs in the event of political crises, regional wars, adverse weather, or other unforeseen disruptions.

Fouad Al-Zayer, former head of data services at OPEC and an energy expert, said the Kingdom maintains millions of barrels in storage both inside and outside its borders. These reserves serve as a buffer during emergencies, enabling the country to compensate for supply shortfalls within a short timeframe. He emphasized that this stored crude is strategically critical in the face of geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

According to Al-Zayer, Saudi Arabia relies on an extraordinary reserve capacity unmatched by any other producer. The country currently produces more than 9 million barrels per day, with the capability to pump even higher volumes if needed. He noted that Saudi reserves alone account for 3 million barrels per day out of roughly 5 million barrels in global spare capacity, underscoring Riyadh’s central role in stabilizing markets and upholding its commitments under OPEC+ agreements.

He added that Saudi Arabia also hosts the International Energy Forum, which works to improve data quality and transparency in the sector. In June, the Kingdom’s output reached about 9 million barrels per day, with the modest increase attributed to logistical considerations. Al-Zayer stressed that it is common for producers to temporarily boost production to support maintenance operations or replenish storage, without impacting the broader market, since these barrels are not immediately traded.

He reiterated that Saudi Arabia has always honored OPEC+ production targets and has played a pivotal role in encouraging other members to meet their quotas.

Meanwhile, Dr. Mohammed Al-Sabban, former senior adviser to the Saudi Minister of Petroleum, explained that the Kingdom has consistently proven itself a reliable and secure supplier to global energy markets. He noted that Saudi Arabia’s recent statement clarified the reasons behind the June production uptick, emphasizing that the additional oil was neither destined for local consumption nor for export but was solely intended to refill domestic and foreign storage. He said such measures do not represent any breach of commitments, unlike the practices of some other countries.

Al-Sabban pointed out that Saudi Arabia has often gone beyond required cuts to help stabilize markets. Even the recent production increases, he said, fall within the scope of voluntary adjustments agreed upon by OPEC+ members. He noted that in July, Saudi Arabia raised production in line with credible studies indicating the market could absorb these volumes without disruption.