Anger over the Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric will likely cause international travel to the US to fall even further than expected this year, an influential travel forecasting company said Tuesday.
Tourism Economics said it expects the number of people arriving in the US from abroad to decline by 9.4% this year. That’s almost twice the 5% drop the company forecast at the end of February.
At the beginning of the year, Tourism Economics predicted a booming year for international travel to the US, with visits up 9% from 2024.
But Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said high-profile lockups of European tourists at the US border in recent weeks have chilled international travelers. Potential visitors have also been angered by tariffs, Trump's stance toward Canada and Greenland, and his heated White House exchange with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“With each policy development, each rhetorical missive, we’re just seeing unforced error after unforced error in the administration,” Sacks said. “It has a direct impact on international travel to the US.”
The decline will have consequences for airlines, hotels, national parks and other sites frequented by tourists.
Tourism Economics expects travel from Canada to plummet 20% this year, a decline that will be acutely felt in border states like New York and Michigan but also popular tourist destinations like California, Nevada and Florida.
The US Travel Association, a trade group, has also warned about Canadians staying away. Even a 10% reduction in travel from Canada could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses, the group said in February.
Other travel-related companies have noted worrying signs. At its annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Air Canada said bookings to the US were down 10% for the April-September period compared to the same period a year ago.
Sacks said he now expects foreign visitors to spend $9 billion less in the US compared to 2024, when international tourism to the country rose 9.1%.
“The irony is that the tariffs are being put in place to help right the trade deficit, but they're harming the trade balance by causing fewer international travelers to come and spend money here,” Sacks said.
Sacks said international arrivals had been getting close to returning to 2019 numbers, before the coronavirus pandemic halted most travel. Now he thinks they won't get back to that level until 2029.
