IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts for Most Countries in Wake of Century-High US Tariffs

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)
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IMF Cuts Growth Forecasts for Most Countries in Wake of Century-High US Tariffs

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks on the "World Economic Outlook" during the IMF/World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 22, 2025. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.

The IMF released an update to its World Economic Outlook compiled in just 10 days after US President Donald Trump announced universal tariffs on nearly all trading partners and higher rates - currently suspended - on many countries.

It cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage point to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage point to 3% from its January forecast that growth would reach 3.3% in both years.

It said inflation was expected to decline more slowly than expected in January, given the impact of tariffs, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with "notable" upward revisions for the US and other advanced economies.

The IMF called the report a "reference forecast" based on developments through April 4, citing the extreme complexity and fluidity of the current moment.

"We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset," IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.

The IMF said the swift escalation of trade tensions and "extremely high levels" of uncertainty about future policies would have a significant impact on global economic activity.

"It's quite significant and it's hitting all the regions of the world. We're seeing lower growth in the US, lower growth in the euro area, lower growth in China, lower growth in other parts of the world," Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.

"If we get an escalation of trade tensions between the US and other countries, that will fuel additional uncertainty, that will create additional financial market volatility, that will tighten financial conditions," he said, adding the bundled effect would further lower global growth prospects.

Weaker growth prospects had already lowered demand for the dollar, but the adjustment in currency markets and portfolio rebalancing seen to date had been orderly, he said.

"We are not seeing a stampede or a run to the exits," Gourinchas said. "We're not concerned at this stage about the resilience of the international monetary system. It would take something much bigger than this."

However, medium-term growth prospects remained mediocre, with the five-year forecast stuck at 3.2%, below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000-2019, with no relief in sight absent significant structural reforms.

The IMF slashed its forecast for growth in global trade by 1.5 percentage point to 1.7%, half the growth seen in 2024, reflecting the accelerating fragmentation of the global economy.

Sharply increased tariffs between the United States and China will result in much lower bilateral trade between the world's two largest economies, Gourinchas said, adding, "That is weighing down on global trade growth."

Trade would continue, but it would cost more and it would be less efficient, he said, citing confusion and uncertainty about where to invest and where to source products and components. "Restoring predictability, clarity to the trading system in whatever form is absolutely critical," he told Reuters.

US GROWTH DOWN, INFLATION UP

The IMF downgraded its forecast for US growth by 0.9 percentage point to 1.8% in 2025 - a full percentage point down from 2.8% growth in 2024 - and by 0.4 percentage point to 1.7% in 2026, citing policy uncertainty and trade tensions.

Gourinchas told reporters the IMF did not foresee a recession in the US, but the odds of a downturn had increased from about 25% to 37%. He said the IMF was now projecting US headline inflation to reach 3% in 2025, one percentage point higher than it forecast in January, due to tariffs and underlying strength in services.

That meant the Federal Reserve will have to be very vigilant in keeping inflation expectations anchored, Gourinchas said, noting that many Americans were still scarred by a spike in inflation during the COVID pandemic.

Asked about the impact of any moves by the White House to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Gourinchas said it was "absolutely critical" that central banks were able to remain independent to maintain their credibility in addressing inflation.

US stocks suffered steep losses on Monday as the US president ramped up his attacks on Powell, fueling concerns about the central bank's independence. Stocks opened higher on Tuesday.

US neighbors Canada and Mexico, both targeted by a range of Trump's tariffs, also saw their growth forecasts cut. The IMF forecast Canada's economy would grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, instead of 2% growth projected for both years in January.

It predicted Mexico would be hard hit by tariffs, with its growth dipping to a negative 0.3% in 2025, a sharp 1.7 percentage point drop from the January forecast, before recovering to 1.4% growth in 2026.

LOWER GROWTH IN EUROPE, ASIA

The IMF forecast growth in the Euro Area would slow to 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with both forecasts about 0.2 percentage points down from January. It said Spain was an outlier, with a 2.5% growth forecast for 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision, reflecting strong data.

Offsetting forces included stronger consumption due to rising wages and a projected fiscal easing in Germany after major changes to its "debt brake." The IMF cut its growth forecast for Germany by 0.3 percentage point to 0.0% in 2025, and by 0.2 percentage point to 0.9% in 2026.

Growth in Britain would hit 1.1% in 2025, 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast, edging higher to 1.4% in 2026, reflecting the impact of recent tariff announcements, higher gilt yields and weaker private consumption.

Trade tensions and tariffs were expected to shave 0.5 percentage point off Japan's economic activity in 2025, compared to the January forecast, with growth projected at 0.6%.

China's growth forecast was cut to 4% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting respective downward revisions of 0.6 percentage point and 0.5 percentage point from the January forecast.

Gourinchas said the impact of the tariffs on China - hugely dependent on exports - was about 1.3 percentage point in 2025, but that was offset by stronger fiscal measures.



US and UK Announce Plans for a Trade Deal That Trump Says Would Cement Their Relationship

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)
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US and UK Announce Plans for a Trade Deal That Trump Says Would Cement Their Relationship

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (C) speaks to the media after a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, at a Jaguar Land Rover automobile manufacturing plant in the West Midlands, Britain, 08 May 2025. (EPA)

The United States and Britain announced plans for a symbolically important trade deal on Thursday, likely lowering the financial burden from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs while creating greater access abroad for American goods.

The announcement provided a political victory for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and provided a degree of validation for Trump's claims that his turbulent approach on trade may be able to rebalance the global economy on his preferred terms. Yet the terms of the deal have yet to be completed so that it can be signed, a reminder that a process Trump has promised would be quick could take weeks as other nations with which the US runs a trade deficit worry that the Republican president's import taxes will drag down economic growth across the world.

“The final details are being written up,” Trump told reporters. “In the coming weeks, we’ll have it all very conclusive.”

The president said that the agreement would lead to more beef and ethanol exports to the UK, which would also streamline the processing of US goods through customs.

Starmer, speaking over the phone to Trump, stressed the importance of the relationship between the two countries as the anniversary of the World War II victory in Europe was being commemorated.

“To be able to announce this great deal on the same deal 80 years forward, almost at the same hour and as we were 80 years ago with the UK and the US standing side by side, I think is incredibly important,” Starmer said.

Britain said its deal with the United States will cut tariffs on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% and eliminate tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The British government said the deal sets a quota of 100,000 UK vehicles that can be imported to the US at a 10% tariff. It said the Trump-imposed 25% tariff on British steel will fall to nothing.

The UK said the agreement includes new reciprocal market access on beef and removes the tariff on ethanol going into the UK from the US, down to zero.

The planned deal was the first outlined since Trump began his stutter-step efforts to rewire the global economy by dramatically increasing import taxes in an attempt to increase domestic manufacturing. The Republican president quickly rolled out tariffs after returning to the White House, targeting traditional allies such as the UK with import taxes on steel, aluminum and autos.

Trump announced near universal tariffs on April 2, then partially retreated a week later and announced that his administration would seek individual agreements with various countries over the next few months.

The US already runs a trade surplus with the UK, making it a bit easier to find common ground as Trump has staked his tariffs on specifically eliminating the annual trade deficits with multiple nations he says have taken advantage of the US.

No new deals have been reached with America's largest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. Trump has left the highest tariffs in place on China, sparking a confrontation between the world's two biggest economies. Washington and Beijing are sending officials to Switzerland this weekend for an initial round of trade talks.

Trump promised on Thursday that there are "many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!”

Starmer, speaking at a defense conference in London, said “talks with the US have been ongoing, and you’ll hear more from me about that later today.”

The US and the UK have been aiming to strike a bilateral trade agreement since the British people voted in 2016 to leave the European Union, allowing the country to negotiate independently of the rest of the continent. Then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson touted a future deal with the US as an incentive for Brexit.

Negotiations started in 2020, during Trump’s first term. But the talks made little progress under President Joe Biden, a Democrat and a critic of Brexit. Negotiations resumed after Trump returned to office in January and intensified in recent weeks.

A major goal of British negotiators has been to reduce or lift the import tax on UK cars and steel, which Trump set at 25%. The US is the largest destination for British cars, accounting for more than a quarter of UK auto exports in 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Britain has also sought tariff exemptions for pharmaceuticals, while the US wants greater access to the British market for agriculture products. Starmer’s government has said it won’t lower UK food standards to allow in chlorine-rinsed American chicken or hormone-treated beef.

The British government will see a deal as a vindication of Starmer’s emollient approach to Trump, which has avoided direct confrontation or criticism. Unlike the European Union, Britain did not announce retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to Trump’s import taxes.

A trade deal with the United Kingdom would be symbolically important and a relief for British exporters. But an agreement would do little to address Trump’s core concern about persistent trade deficits that prompted him to impose import taxes on countries around the world.

The US ran a $11.9 billion trade surplus in goods with the UK last year, according to the Census Bureau. The $68 billion in goods that the US imported from the UK last year accounted for just 2% of all goods imported into the country.

The US is much more important to the UK economy. It was Britain's biggest trading partner last year, according to government statistics, though the bulk of Britain’s exports to the US are services rather than goods.

Trump has previously said that his leverage in talks would be US consumers, but he appeared to suggest that the UK would also start buying more American-made goods.

“I think that the United Kingdom, like every other country, they want to ... go shopping in the United States of America," he said.

A trade deal with the US is one of several that Starmer’s government is seeking to strike. On Tuesday, Britain and India announced a trade agreement after three years of negotiations. The UK is also trying to lift some of the barriers to trade with the EU imposed when Britain left the bloc in 2020.