In Türkiye Election, Erdogan Doesn’t Flinch as He Fights for Political Life

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
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In Türkiye Election, Erdogan Doesn’t Flinch as He Fights for Political Life

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has nurtured an image of a robust and invincible leader over his two decades in power, yet he appears vulnerable as the political landscape may be shifting in favor of his opponent in Sunday's presidential vote.

Erdogan emerged from humble roots to rule for 20 years and redraw Türkiye’s domestic, economic, security and foreign policy, rivalling historic leader Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who founded modern Türkiye a century ago.

The son of a sea captain, Erdogan has faced stiff political headwinds ahead of Sunday's election: he was already facing blame over an economic crisis when a devastating earthquake hit in February. Critics accused his government of a slow response and lax enforcement of building rules, failures they said could have cost lives.

As opinion polls show a tight race, critics have drawn parallels with the circumstances that brought his Islamist-rooted AK Party to power in 2002, in an election also shaped by high inflation and economic turmoil.

Two days before the vote, Erdogan said he came to office through the ballot boxes and if he had to, would leave the same way.

"We will accept as legitimate every result that comes out of the ballots. We expect the same pledge from those opposing us," he said in a televised interview on Friday.

For his enemies the day of retribution has come.

Under his autocratic rule, he amassed power around an executive presidency, muzzled dissent, jailed critics and opponents and seized control of the media, judiciary and the economy. He crammed most public institutions with loyalists and hollowed critical state organs.

His opponents have vowed to unpick many of the changes he has made to Türkiye, which he has sought to shape to his vision of a pious, conservative society and assertive regional player.

The high stakes in Sunday's presidential and parliamentary election are nothing new for a leader who once served a prison sentence - for reciting a religious poem - and survived an attempted military coup in 2016 when rogue soldiers attacked parliament and killed 250 people.

A veteran of more than a dozen election victories, the 69-year-old Erdogan has taken aim at his critics in typically combative fashion.

He has peppered the run-up with celebrations of industrial milestones, including the launch of Türkiye’s first electric car and the inauguration of its first amphibious assault ship, built in Istanbul to carry Turkish-made drones.

Erdogan also flicked the switch on Türkiye’s first delivery of natural gas from a Black Sea reserve, promising households free supplies, and inaugurated its first nuclear power station in a ceremony attended virtually by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

His attacks against his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, have included accusations without evidence of support from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency since the 1980s in which more than 40,000 people have been killed. Kilicdaroglu has denied the accusations.

'Building Türkiye together'

Polls suggest voting could go to a second round later this month - if neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu win more than 50% of the vote - and some show Erdogan trailing. This hints at the depth of a cost-of-living crisis sparked by his unorthodox economic policies.

A drive by authorities to slash interest rates in the face of soaring inflation aimed to boost economic growth, but it crashed the currency in late 2021 and worsened inflation.

The economy was one of Erdogan's main strengths in the first decade of his rule, when Türkiye enjoyed a protracted boom with new roads, hospitals and schools and rising living standards for its 85 million people.

Halime Duman said high prices had put many groceries out of her reach, but she remained convinced Erdogan could still fix her problems. "I swear, Erdogan can solve it with a flick of his wrist," she said at a market in central Istanbul.

The president grew up in a poor district of Istanbul and attended Islamic vocational school, entering politics as a local party youth branch leader. After serving as Istanbul mayor, he stepped onto the national stage as head of the AK Party (AKP), becoming prime minister in 2003.

His AKP tamed Türkiye’s military, which had toppled four governments since 1960, and in 2005 began talks to secure a decades-long ambition to join the European Union - a process that later came to a grinding halt.

Greater control

Western allies initially saw Erdogan's Türkiye as a vibrant democracy. But his drive to wield greater control polarized alarmed international partners. Fervent supporters saw it as just reward for a leader who put Islamic teachings back at the core of public life in a country with a strong secularist tradition, and championed the pious working classes.

Opponents portrayed it as a lurch into authoritarianism by a leader addicted to power.

After the 2016 coup attempt authorities launched a massive crackdown, jailing more than 77,000 people pending trial and dismissing or suspending 150,000 from state jobs. Rights groups say Türkiye became the world's biggest jailer of journalists for a time.

Erdogan's government said the purge was justified by threats from coup supporters, as well as ISIS and the PKK.

At home, a sprawling new presidential palace complex on the edge of Ankara became a striking sign of his new powers, while abroad Türkiye became increasingly assertive, intervening in Syria, Iraq and Libya and often deploying Turkish-made military drones with decisive force.



Fear Grips Alawites in Syria’s Homs as Assad ‘Remnants’ Targeted

A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
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Fear Grips Alawites in Syria’s Homs as Assad ‘Remnants’ Targeted

A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)
A member of security forces reporting to Syria's interim government checks the identification of a motorist at a checkpoint in Homs in west-central Syria on January 8, 2025. (AFP)

In Syria's third city Homs, members of ousted president Bashar al-Assad's Alawite community say they are terrified as new authorities comb their districts for "remnants of the regime", arresting hundreds.

In central Homs, the marketplace buzzes with people buying fruit and vegetables from vendors in bombed-out buildings riddled with bullet holes.

But at the entrance to areas where the city's Alawite minority lives, armed men in fatigues have set up roadblocks and checkpoints.

People in one such neighborhood, speaking anonymously to AFP for fear of reprisals, said young men had been taken away, including soldiers and conscripts who had surrendered their weapons as instructed by the new led authorities.

Two of them said armed men stationed at one checkpoint, since dismantled after complaints, had been questioning people about the religious sect.

"We have been living in fear," said a resident of the Alawite-majority Zahra district.

"At first, they spoke of isolated incidents. But there is nothing isolated about so many of them."

- 'Majority are civilians' -

Since opposition factions led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group seized power on December 8, Syria's new leadership has repeatedly sought to reassure minorities they will not be harmed.

But Alawites fear a backlash against their sect, long associated with the Assads.

The new authorities deny wrongdoing, saying they are after former Assad forces.

Shihadi Mayhoub, a former lawmaker from Homs, said he had been documenting alleged violations in Zahra.

"So far, I have about 600 names of arrested people" in Zahra, out of more than 1,380 in the whole of Homs city, he told AFP.

Among those detained are "retired brigadiers, colonels who settled their affairs in dedicated centers, lieutenants and majors".

But "the majority are civilians and conscripted soldiers," he said.

In the district of Al-Sabil, a group of officers were beaten in front of their wives, he added.

Authorities in Homs have been responsive to residents' pleas and promised to release the detained soon, Mayhoub said, adding groups allied to the new rulers were behind the violations.

Another man in Zahra told AFP he had not heard from his son, a soldier, since he was arrested at a checkpoint in the neighboring province of Hama last week.

- 'Anger' -

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor says at least 1,800 people, overwhelmingly Alawites, have been detained in Homs city and the wider province.

Across Syria, violence against Alawites has surged, with the Britain-based Observatory recording at least 150 killings, mostly in Homs and Hama provinces.

Early in the civil war, sparked by a crackdown on democracy protests in 2011, Homs was dubbed the "capital of the revolution" by activists who dreamt of a Syria free from Assad's rule.

The crackdown was especially brutal in Homs, home to a sizeable Alawite minority, as districts were besieged and fighting ravaged its historical center, where the bloodiest sectarian violence occurred.

Today, videos circulating online show gunmen rounding up men in Homs. AFP could not verify all the videos but spoke to Mahmud Abu Ali, an HTS member from Homs who filmed himself ordering the men.

He said the people in the video were accused of belonging to pro-Assad militias who "committed massacres" in Homs during the war.

"I wanted to relieve the anger I felt on behalf of all those people killed," the 21-year-old said, adding the dead included his parents and siblings.

- 'Tired of war' -

Abu Yusuf, an HTS official involved in security sweeps, said forces had found three weapons depots and "dozens of wanted people".

Authorities said the five-day operation ended Monday, but Abu Yusuf said searches were ongoing as districts "have still not been completely cleansed of regime remnants".

"We want security and safety for all: Sunnis, Alawites, Christians, everyone," he said, denying reports of violations.

Homs lay in ruins for years after the former regime retook full control.

In Baba Amr neighborhood, an opposition bastion retaken in 2012, buildings have collapsed from bombardment or bear bullet marks, with debris still clogging streets.

After fleeing to Lebanon more than a decade ago, Fayez al-Jammal, 46, returned this week with his wife and seven children to a devastated home without doors, furniture or windows.

He pointed to the ruined buildings where neighbors were killed or disappeared, but said revenge was far from his mind.

"We are tired of war and humiliation. We just want everyone to be able to live their lives," he said.