In Türkiye Election, Erdogan Doesn’t Flinch as He Fights for Political Life

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
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In Türkiye Election, Erdogan Doesn’t Flinch as He Fights for Political Life

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Türkiye April 30, 2023. (Reuters)

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has nurtured an image of a robust and invincible leader over his two decades in power, yet he appears vulnerable as the political landscape may be shifting in favor of his opponent in Sunday's presidential vote.

Erdogan emerged from humble roots to rule for 20 years and redraw Türkiye’s domestic, economic, security and foreign policy, rivalling historic leader Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who founded modern Türkiye a century ago.

The son of a sea captain, Erdogan has faced stiff political headwinds ahead of Sunday's election: he was already facing blame over an economic crisis when a devastating earthquake hit in February. Critics accused his government of a slow response and lax enforcement of building rules, failures they said could have cost lives.

As opinion polls show a tight race, critics have drawn parallels with the circumstances that brought his Islamist-rooted AK Party to power in 2002, in an election also shaped by high inflation and economic turmoil.

Two days before the vote, Erdogan said he came to office through the ballot boxes and if he had to, would leave the same way.

"We will accept as legitimate every result that comes out of the ballots. We expect the same pledge from those opposing us," he said in a televised interview on Friday.

For his enemies the day of retribution has come.

Under his autocratic rule, he amassed power around an executive presidency, muzzled dissent, jailed critics and opponents and seized control of the media, judiciary and the economy. He crammed most public institutions with loyalists and hollowed critical state organs.

His opponents have vowed to unpick many of the changes he has made to Türkiye, which he has sought to shape to his vision of a pious, conservative society and assertive regional player.

The high stakes in Sunday's presidential and parliamentary election are nothing new for a leader who once served a prison sentence - for reciting a religious poem - and survived an attempted military coup in 2016 when rogue soldiers attacked parliament and killed 250 people.

A veteran of more than a dozen election victories, the 69-year-old Erdogan has taken aim at his critics in typically combative fashion.

He has peppered the run-up with celebrations of industrial milestones, including the launch of Türkiye’s first electric car and the inauguration of its first amphibious assault ship, built in Istanbul to carry Turkish-made drones.

Erdogan also flicked the switch on Türkiye’s first delivery of natural gas from a Black Sea reserve, promising households free supplies, and inaugurated its first nuclear power station in a ceremony attended virtually by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

His attacks against his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, have included accusations without evidence of support from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency since the 1980s in which more than 40,000 people have been killed. Kilicdaroglu has denied the accusations.

'Building Türkiye together'

Polls suggest voting could go to a second round later this month - if neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu win more than 50% of the vote - and some show Erdogan trailing. This hints at the depth of a cost-of-living crisis sparked by his unorthodox economic policies.

A drive by authorities to slash interest rates in the face of soaring inflation aimed to boost economic growth, but it crashed the currency in late 2021 and worsened inflation.

The economy was one of Erdogan's main strengths in the first decade of his rule, when Türkiye enjoyed a protracted boom with new roads, hospitals and schools and rising living standards for its 85 million people.

Halime Duman said high prices had put many groceries out of her reach, but she remained convinced Erdogan could still fix her problems. "I swear, Erdogan can solve it with a flick of his wrist," she said at a market in central Istanbul.

The president grew up in a poor district of Istanbul and attended Islamic vocational school, entering politics as a local party youth branch leader. After serving as Istanbul mayor, he stepped onto the national stage as head of the AK Party (AKP), becoming prime minister in 2003.

His AKP tamed Türkiye’s military, which had toppled four governments since 1960, and in 2005 began talks to secure a decades-long ambition to join the European Union - a process that later came to a grinding halt.

Greater control

Western allies initially saw Erdogan's Türkiye as a vibrant democracy. But his drive to wield greater control polarized alarmed international partners. Fervent supporters saw it as just reward for a leader who put Islamic teachings back at the core of public life in a country with a strong secularist tradition, and championed the pious working classes.

Opponents portrayed it as a lurch into authoritarianism by a leader addicted to power.

After the 2016 coup attempt authorities launched a massive crackdown, jailing more than 77,000 people pending trial and dismissing or suspending 150,000 from state jobs. Rights groups say Türkiye became the world's biggest jailer of journalists for a time.

Erdogan's government said the purge was justified by threats from coup supporters, as well as ISIS and the PKK.

At home, a sprawling new presidential palace complex on the edge of Ankara became a striking sign of his new powers, while abroad Türkiye became increasingly assertive, intervening in Syria, Iraq and Libya and often deploying Turkish-made military drones with decisive force.



Trump Is at a Moment of Choosing as Israel Looks for More US Help Crushing Iran's Nuclear Program 

US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
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Trump Is at a Moment of Choosing as Israel Looks for More US Help Crushing Iran's Nuclear Program 

US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
US President Donald Trump gestures as he attends a family photo session during the G7 Summit, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)

President Donald Trump in about eight hours Monday went from suggesting a nuclear deal with Iran remained "achievable" to urging Tehran's 9.5 million residents to flee for their lives as he cut short his visit to an international summit to return to Washington for urgent talks with his national security team.

He was expected to arrive at the White House early Tuesday at a moment of choosing in his presidency. Israel, with four days of missile strikes, has done considerable damage to Iran and believes it can now deal a permanent blow to Tehran's nuclear program, particularly if it gets a little more help from Trump.

But deepening American involvement, perhaps by providing the Israelis with bunker-busting bombs to penetrate Iranian nuclear sites built deep underground or offering other direct US military support, comes with enormous political risk for Trump.

He appears to be gradually building the public case for more direct American involvement.

"Iran should have signed the 'deal' I told them to sign," Trump posted on social media shortly before the White House announced that Trump was cutting short his visit to the Group of Seven summit in the Canadian Rockies. "What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"

Trump's shift in tone comes as the US has repositioned warships and military aircraft in the region to respond if the conflict between Israel and Iran further escalates.

Speculation grows that Trump may be tilting toward more direct involvement

The Israelis say their offensive has eviscerated Iran's air defenses and they can now strike targets across the country at will. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Israeli bombardment will continue until Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed.

So far, Israel has targeted multiple Iranian nuclear program sites but has not been able to destroy Iran's Fordo uranium enrichment facility.

The site is buried deep underground and to eliminate it, Israel may need the US bunker-busting bomb the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets and then explode. But Israel does not have the munition or the bomber needed to deliver it; the penetrator is currently delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber.

Israel's own defenses remain largely intact in the face of Iran's retaliatory strikes, but some of Tehran's missiles are getting through and having deadly impact.

The White House, soon after announcing Trump was returning to Washington, dispatched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a prime-time Fox News appearance as speculation grows about whether Trump could be tilting toward more direct US involvement.

Hegseth told Fox News' Jesse Watters that "of course" Trump wanted to see a deal made to curb Iran's nuclear program.

"His position has not changed," Hegseth said. "What you're watching in real time is peace through strength and America first. Our job is to be strong. We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal. And we certainly hope that's what happens here."

Trump continues to push Iran to negotiate

Trump, meanwhile, during an exchange with reporters Monday on the sidelines of the G7, declined to say what it would take for the US to get more directly involved.

Instead, he continued to press Iran on negotiations over its nuclear program.

"They should talk, and they should talk immediately," Trump said during a bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. He added, "I'd say Iran is not winning this war."

To be certain, Trump in the days-old conflict has sought to restrain Netanyahu. He rejected a plan presented by Israel to the US to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to a US official familiar with the matter.

The Israelis had informed the Trump administration in recent days that they had developed a credible plan to kill Khamenei.

After being briefed on the plan, the White House made clear to Israeli officials that Trump was opposed to the Israelis making the move, according to the official, who was not authorized to comment on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

A widening schism over Iran among Trump's MAGA supporters

Trump on Monday bristled when asked about some of his MAGA faithful, including conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, who have suggested that further US involvement would be a betrayal to supporters who were drawn to his promise to end US involvement in expensive and endless wars.

Carlson, a former Fox News host pundit, last week called Trump "complicit in the act of war" in his subscriber newsletter.

Trump took a veiled swipe at Carlson, who for years hosted a popular prime-time show for Fox News, but was ousted in 2023 amid a cascade of bad legal news for the network.

"I don't know what Tucker Carlson is saying," Trump told reporters. "Let him go get a television network and say it so that people listen."

Later, Trump took another jab at Carlson, who had spoken on Trump's behalf at the 2024 Republican National Convention.

"Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that,' IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!'" the president wrote on social media.

Other prominent Trump supporters have also raised concerns about how far the president should go in backing Israel.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk are among prominent Trump World allies who have noted that voters backed Trump because he promised not to entangle the nation in foreign clashes and to be wary of expanding US involvement in the Mideast conflict.

He ran on a promise to quickly end the brutal wars in Gaza and Ukraine, but has struggled to find an endgame to either of those conflicts.

"No issue currently divides the right as much as foreign policy," Kirk posted on X last week, shortly before Israel began carrying out its strikes. "I'm very concerned based on (everything) I've seen in the grassroots the last few months that this will cause a massive schism in MAGA and potentially disrupt our momentum and our insanely successful Presidency."

But there are also Trump backers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who are making the case that this is Trump's moment to deliver a decisive blow to Iran. Graham is calling for Trump to "go all-in" in backing Israel and destroying Iran's nuclear program.

"No one can say that President @realDonaldTrump has not tried to seek peace regarding Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Iran," Graham wrote on X on Monday night. "He has gone the extra mile and I appreciate that. However, you have to have willing partners to make peace. Iran played the same old game with the wrong guy."