Türkiye's Kilicdaroglu Faces the Heat after Election Loss to Erdogan

Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
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Türkiye's Kilicdaroglu Faces the Heat after Election Loss to Erdogan

Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)
Türkiye's main opposition Republican People's Party, CHP, leader and Nation Alliance's presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at CHP headquarters, in Ankara, Türkiye, late Sunday, May 28, 2023. (AP)

After failing to seize the moment to defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Türkiye's elections, Kemal Kilicdaroglu faces questions about his leadership and the challenge of preserving a bitter opposition alliance ahead of local voting in March 2024.

According to some party members, analysts and voters, Kilicdaroglu, the opposition presidential candidate in Sunday's runoff vote, will need to immediately re-focus on maintaining control of Türkiye's big cities in the municipal elections.

But after his loss to Erdogan - who was seen as uniquely vulnerable due to a cost-of-living crisis - many opposition members and supporters are frustrated, soul-searching and considering leadership changes.

"It was not a surprising result since the opposition did not change for 20 years facing the same government," said Bugra Oztug, 24, who voted for Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul. "I feel sad and disappointed, but I am not hopeless."

Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant, got 47.8% support in the runoff vote despite an optimistic, inclusive campaign that pledged to rein in Erdogan's maverick economic policies.

Instead, Erdogan, modern Türkiye's longest-serving leader, will extend his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade, backed by a majority for his alliance in parliament.

Meanwhile the Republican People's Party (CHP), which Kilicdaroglu leads, holds internal discussions this week in Ankara to pick up the pieces. The broader six-party opposition alliance convened after Sunday's election results came in.

Akif Hamzacebi, a former CHP deputy parliamentary group chair, said his party and Kilicdaroglu were "seriously unsuccessful" because of a poor strategy, and a comprehensive re-evaluation is needed. If "the necessary actions are not taken, the future will be worse than today," he said on Twitter.

Second-guessing

Kilicdaroglu, 74, had long pressed to be the man to take on the 69-year-old Erdogan.

The opposition alliance - which included nationalists, Islamists, secularists and liberals - chose him as candidate in March, even though some members had warned at the time that he was not the strongest option based on opinion polls.

His selection came after a dramatic weekend in which Meral Aksener, leader of the IYI Party, the Turkish opposition's second largest, briefly walked out in protest.

Yet on the campaign trail, Kilicdaroglu won the key backing of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), leading most pollsters to predict he would prevail in the initial vote on May 14 and begin rolling back Erdogan's legacy.

In the end, he barely managed to force a runoff on May 28. In the last two weeks, he struggled to motivate voters in the face of an overwhelmingly pro-government mainstream media and Erdogan's strong base of support across rural Anatolia.

In a speech on Sunday evening, Kilicdaroglu called it "the most unfair election in years". But he gave no sign of resignation and said he "will continue to lead and struggle for democracy".

Atilla Yesilada, analyst at GlobalSource Partners, said, "I don't know whether CHP and IYI Party can tolerate their leadership anymore".

Zeynep Alemdar, professor of international relations at Okan University, said Kilicdaroglu sought to be a collaborative leader, but his allies contributed little to his success.

"None of them seem to have increased their share of votes, neither for themselves nor for Kilicdaroglu," she said.

Holding the cities

Analysts say Kilicdaroglu will now seek to keep this unwieldy alliance united, including the HDP's support, to hold on to cities in March.

In the last municipal elections in 2019, CHP candidates backed by the alliance shocked Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) by winning mayoralties in Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya and Adana.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu of the CHP - who Aksener had promoted as a better presidential candidate than Kilicdaroglu - said on Monday that the "struggle is starting again".

"We will no longer expect different results by doing the same things. From now on, we will continue to fight to win all hearts," Imamoglu said in the video address.

An internal debate within the CHP, the party of modern Türkiye's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, will likely stir ahead of a party congress scheduled for this summer.

Emre Erdogan, political science professor at Istanbul's Bilgi University, said the opposition's election loss made it harder to form a "grand" alliance but this remained necessary for success in the local elections in March 2024.

"If the opposition cannot unite again, the victories of 2019 may be reversed and the opposition camp can lose Istanbul and even Ankara," he said.



Moving Heaven, Earth to Make Bread in Gaza

Displaced Palestinian girls bake bread at the Bureij refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip - AFP
Displaced Palestinian girls bake bread at the Bureij refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip - AFP
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Moving Heaven, Earth to Make Bread in Gaza

Displaced Palestinian girls bake bread at the Bureij refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip - AFP
Displaced Palestinian girls bake bread at the Bureij refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip - AFP

In Gaza, where hunger gnaws and hope runs thin, flour and bread are so scarce that they are carefully divided by families clinging to survival.

"Because the crossing points are closed, there's no more gas and no flour, and no firewood coming in," said Umm Mohammed Issa, a volunteer helping to make bread with the few resources still available.

Israel resumed military operations in the Palestinian territory in mid-March, shattering weeks of relative calm brought by a fragile ceasefire.

The United Nations has warned of a growing humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in the besieged territory, where Israel's blockade on aid since March 2 has cut off food, fuel and other essentials to Gaza's 2.4 million people, AFP reported.
Israel has repeatedly said it will not allow aid in, accusing Hamas of diverting the supplies, a claim the Palestinian militant group denies.

Once again, residents have had to resort to increasingly desperate measures to feed themselves.

To cook a thin flatbread called "saj", named after the convex hotplate on which it is made, Issa said the volunteers have resorted to burning pieces of cardboard.

"There's going to be famine," the Palestinian woman said, a warning international aid groups have previously issued over the course of 18 month of war.

"We'll be in the situation where we can no longer feed our children."

- 'Bread is precious' -

Until the end of March, Gazans gathered each morning outside the few bakeries still operating, in the hope of getting some bread.

But one by one, the ovens cooled as ingredients -- flour, water, salt and yeast -- ran out.

Larger industrial bakeries central to operations run by the UN's World Food Programme also closed for lack of flour and fuel to power their generators.

On Wednesday, World Central Kitchen (WCK) sounded the alarm about a humanitarian crisis that is "grows more dire each day."

The organization's bakery is the only one still operating in Gaza, producing 87,000 loaves of bread per day.

"Bread is precious, often substituting for meals where cooking has stopped," it said.

"I built a clay oven to bake bread to sell," said Baqer Deeb, a 35-year-old father from Beit Lahia in northern Gaza.

He has been displaced by the fighting, like almost the entire population of the territory, and is now in Gaza City.

"But now there's a severe shortage of flour," he said, "and that is making the bread crisis even worse."

There is no longer much food to be found for sale at makeshift roadside stalls, and prices are climbing, making many products unaffordable for most people.

- 'Mould and worms' -

Fidaa Abu Ummayra thought she had found a real bargain when she bought a large sack of flour for the equivalent of 90 euros at Al-Shati refugee camp in the north of the territory.

"If only I hadn't bought it," the 55-year-old said. "It was full of mould and worms. The bread was disgusting."

Before the war, a typical 25-kilo sack like the one she bought would have gone for less than 10 euros.

"We are literally dying of hunger," said Tasnim Abu Matar in Gaza City.

"We count and calculate everything our children eat, and divide up the bread to make it last for days," the 50-year-old added.

"We can't take it any more."

People rummage through debris searching for something to eat as others walk for kilometres (miles) to aid distribution points hoping to find food for their families.

Germany, France, and Britain on Wednesday called on Israel to stop blocking humanitarian aid into Gaza, warning of "an acute risk of starvation, epidemic disease and death".

According to the UN humanitarian agency OCHA, displaced people at more than 250 shelters in Gaza had no or little access to enough food last month.

True to their reputation for resilience after multiple wars, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have devised countless ways to cope with growing hardship.

But in interviews with AFP, many said these improvised solutions often make them feel as though they've been thrust back centuries.