Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
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Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine’s military was largely reliant on Soviet-era weaponry, from tanks to artillery to fighter jets.

While that arsenal helped Ukraine fend off an assault on the capital of Kyiv and prevent a total rout in the early weeks of the war, billions of dollars in military assistance has since poured into the country, including more modern Western-made weapons.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, now in its early stages, could offer a glimpse of whether and to what extent the newer weapons systems have strengthened Kyiv’s ability to stand up to Russia.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic.

"Ukraine is in a much better position to be able to conduct a combined arms warfare than where they were in the beginning of Russia’s full-scale reinvasion of Ukraine," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Center for Strategic International Studies said.

Here’s a look at some of the Western weapons sent to Ukraine and what advantages they might offer.

Striking targets

One sophisticated US-made rocket launcher sent to Ukraine has received a lot of attention — and for good reason: High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems gave Kyiv's forces the ability to hit targets farther away and with much greater accuracy than Soviet-designed ones.

In the fall counteroffensive, the HIMARS — which currently give troops the capability to strike a target up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away and then quickly move on — were used to destroy bridges near the southern city of Kherson, cutting Russian troops off from one another and their supply routes.

Ukraine has since clamored for longer-range missiles that can also be launched by the HIMARS and could reach up to 300 kilometers (190 miles) away. But the U.S. and its allies have been reluctant to provide them.

However, Washington agreed in February to send Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of 150 kilometers (90 miles) when fired by HIMARS, and the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles — with a range of 550 kilometers (340 miles).

Both weapons already have been spotted in combat, extending Ukraine’s reach.

Air defense

Throughout the war, Russia has rained missiles down on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure almost daily.

To defend against those barrages, the West has sent Ukraine the Patriot and the Avenger air defense systems.

At $4 million per round, Patriot missiles are meant to shield against larger ballistic missile attacks, leaving simpler weapons to deal with the cheap, slow-flying Iranian exploding drones often used by the Russians.

Even with these new air defense systems, Ukraine has struggled to protect its territory against daily Russian attacks.

Russia has relied on long-range ballistic and cruise missiles to strike targets deep in Ukraine, avoiding a risk to its warplanes after losing many of them in the initial stages of the invasion. Moscow’s failure to win control of Ukrainian airspace was one of the biggest surprises of the war.

Ukraine also has kept its much smaller air force made of Soviet-made Sukhoi and Mig-29 jets away from the front line and used them to launch missiles from large distances to minimize losses.

Ukraine long has pushed for Western jets, but their delivery isn’t expected any time soon.

"Ukraine would be a lot in a better position for a more decisive victory and success on a shorter timeline if we took these decisions a lot faster," Barros said.

Artillery

Long known as the "King of Battle," artillery systems are key in any war — but especially the one in Ukraine. Russian troops have dug themselves in throughout the south and east of the country. Driving them out will require significant artillery.

Artillery can take out buildings and enemy weapons from reasonable distances and cause such chaos that opposing troops are forced to withdraw. Ukrainian forces are making heavy use of artillery in the battles around Zaporizhzhia, where the beginnings of the counteroffensive are unfolding.

Ukraine had plenty of artillery to begin with — but now it has American M777s and German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, both of which are more accurate and powerful than what it started the war with.

Tanks and armored vehicles

Ukraine needs the "punching force" of tanks and other fighting vehicles if it's going to break through Russian lines, Barros said.

Tanks delivered thus far — which include multiple models of German Leopards and the British Challengers — are more sophisticated than the Soviet-designed T-64 and T-72 tanks Ukraine relied on at the start of the invasion.

They also have far better armor and can strike more accurately than Russia's tanks, according to Craig Cartier, a retired Soviet Union analyst for the US with more than three decades of experience.

The US, meanwhile, has sent Bradley fighting vehicles, which offer better protection for troops they carry and have better firepower compared to Soviet-era armored vehicles that Ukraine has used.

All of these vehicles can inflict high casualties and destroy other weapons systems, making them invaluable for a counteroffensive.

Training

Perhaps most crucial to Ukraine’s success, however, has been the Ukrainians themselves. Both Barros and Cartier said the experience and training of Ukrainian troops, not just the weapons provided by the West, has made them a lethal force.

The Ukrainians "have demonstrated the ability to not only master the equipment and tactics, but to be able to do things nobody else has been able to do, as demonstrated by their (air defense) wizardry," Cartier said.

In the UK and Germany, in addition to other neighboring countries, Ukrainian forces have been trained on infantry tactics and on certain specialized equipment, such as the Challenger-2 tanks.

It's impossible to know how the counteroffensive will unfold, Barros said.

"What I will say is every single time that the Ukrainians have had an opportunity to demonstrate their fortitude and resolve on the battlefield, they’ve always outperformed expectations," he said.



The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
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The Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Truce is Holding so Far, Despite Violations

Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Mariam Kourani removes a toy car from the rubble of her destroyed house after returning with her family to the Hanouiyeh village in southern Lebanon, on Nov. 28, 2024, following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon's Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.

The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers.

So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed, The AP reported.

Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.

Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the US-brokered ceasefire.

Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.

Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.

Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.

What does the ceasefire agreement say? The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.

The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other militant groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.

The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.

Is the ceasefire being implemented? Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon - Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.

The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.

Until Israel hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.

What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days? Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army's control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the militant group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to "take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn't fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.