Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
TT
20

Ukraine Has an Array of New Western Weapons. What Advantages Could They Offer in a Counteroffensive?

A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)
A Ukrainian serviceman of 28th brigade shoots a Maxim gun towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP)

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine’s military was largely reliant on Soviet-era weaponry, from tanks to artillery to fighter jets.

While that arsenal helped Ukraine fend off an assault on the capital of Kyiv and prevent a total rout in the early weeks of the war, billions of dollars in military assistance has since poured into the country, including more modern Western-made weapons.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive, now in its early stages, could offer a glimpse of whether and to what extent the newer weapons systems have strengthened Kyiv’s ability to stand up to Russia.

Analysts are cautiously optimistic.

"Ukraine is in a much better position to be able to conduct a combined arms warfare than where they were in the beginning of Russia’s full-scale reinvasion of Ukraine," George Barros, a Russia analyst for the Center for Strategic International Studies said.

Here’s a look at some of the Western weapons sent to Ukraine and what advantages they might offer.

Striking targets

One sophisticated US-made rocket launcher sent to Ukraine has received a lot of attention — and for good reason: High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems gave Kyiv's forces the ability to hit targets farther away and with much greater accuracy than Soviet-designed ones.

In the fall counteroffensive, the HIMARS — which currently give troops the capability to strike a target up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away and then quickly move on — were used to destroy bridges near the southern city of Kherson, cutting Russian troops off from one another and their supply routes.

Ukraine has since clamored for longer-range missiles that can also be launched by the HIMARS and could reach up to 300 kilometers (190 miles) away. But the U.S. and its allies have been reluctant to provide them.

However, Washington agreed in February to send Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of 150 kilometers (90 miles) when fired by HIMARS, and the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles — with a range of 550 kilometers (340 miles).

Both weapons already have been spotted in combat, extending Ukraine’s reach.

Air defense

Throughout the war, Russia has rained missiles down on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure almost daily.

To defend against those barrages, the West has sent Ukraine the Patriot and the Avenger air defense systems.

At $4 million per round, Patriot missiles are meant to shield against larger ballistic missile attacks, leaving simpler weapons to deal with the cheap, slow-flying Iranian exploding drones often used by the Russians.

Even with these new air defense systems, Ukraine has struggled to protect its territory against daily Russian attacks.

Russia has relied on long-range ballistic and cruise missiles to strike targets deep in Ukraine, avoiding a risk to its warplanes after losing many of them in the initial stages of the invasion. Moscow’s failure to win control of Ukrainian airspace was one of the biggest surprises of the war.

Ukraine also has kept its much smaller air force made of Soviet-made Sukhoi and Mig-29 jets away from the front line and used them to launch missiles from large distances to minimize losses.

Ukraine long has pushed for Western jets, but their delivery isn’t expected any time soon.

"Ukraine would be a lot in a better position for a more decisive victory and success on a shorter timeline if we took these decisions a lot faster," Barros said.

Artillery

Long known as the "King of Battle," artillery systems are key in any war — but especially the one in Ukraine. Russian troops have dug themselves in throughout the south and east of the country. Driving them out will require significant artillery.

Artillery can take out buildings and enemy weapons from reasonable distances and cause such chaos that opposing troops are forced to withdraw. Ukrainian forces are making heavy use of artillery in the battles around Zaporizhzhia, where the beginnings of the counteroffensive are unfolding.

Ukraine had plenty of artillery to begin with — but now it has American M777s and German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, both of which are more accurate and powerful than what it started the war with.

Tanks and armored vehicles

Ukraine needs the "punching force" of tanks and other fighting vehicles if it's going to break through Russian lines, Barros said.

Tanks delivered thus far — which include multiple models of German Leopards and the British Challengers — are more sophisticated than the Soviet-designed T-64 and T-72 tanks Ukraine relied on at the start of the invasion.

They also have far better armor and can strike more accurately than Russia's tanks, according to Craig Cartier, a retired Soviet Union analyst for the US with more than three decades of experience.

The US, meanwhile, has sent Bradley fighting vehicles, which offer better protection for troops they carry and have better firepower compared to Soviet-era armored vehicles that Ukraine has used.

All of these vehicles can inflict high casualties and destroy other weapons systems, making them invaluable for a counteroffensive.

Training

Perhaps most crucial to Ukraine’s success, however, has been the Ukrainians themselves. Both Barros and Cartier said the experience and training of Ukrainian troops, not just the weapons provided by the West, has made them a lethal force.

The Ukrainians "have demonstrated the ability to not only master the equipment and tactics, but to be able to do things nobody else has been able to do, as demonstrated by their (air defense) wizardry," Cartier said.

In the UK and Germany, in addition to other neighboring countries, Ukrainian forces have been trained on infantry tactics and on certain specialized equipment, such as the Challenger-2 tanks.

It's impossible to know how the counteroffensive will unfold, Barros said.

"What I will say is every single time that the Ukrainians have had an opportunity to demonstrate their fortitude and resolve on the battlefield, they’ve always outperformed expectations," he said.



China Pushes Back at US Demands to Stop Buying Russian and Iranian Oil

A Russian and Chinese national flag flutter near Tiananmen Gate for the visiting Russia's President Vladimir Putin, in Beijing, May 16, 2024. (AP)
A Russian and Chinese national flag flutter near Tiananmen Gate for the visiting Russia's President Vladimir Putin, in Beijing, May 16, 2024. (AP)
TT
20

China Pushes Back at US Demands to Stop Buying Russian and Iranian Oil

A Russian and Chinese national flag flutter near Tiananmen Gate for the visiting Russia's President Vladimir Putin, in Beijing, May 16, 2024. (AP)
A Russian and Chinese national flag flutter near Tiananmen Gate for the visiting Russia's President Vladimir Putin, in Beijing, May 16, 2024. (AP)

US and Chinese officials may be able to settle many of their differences to reach a trade deal and avert punishing tariffs, but they remain far apart on one issue: the US demand that China stop purchasing oil from Iran and Russia.

"China will always ensure its energy supply in ways that serve our national interests," China's Foreign Ministry posted on X on Wednesday following two days of trade negotiations in Stockholm, responding to the US threat of a 100% tariff.

"Coercion and pressuring will not achieve anything. China will firmly defend its sovereignty, security and development interests," the ministry said.

The response is notable at a time when both Beijing and Washington are signaling optimism and goodwill about reaching a deal to keep commercial ties between the world's two largest economies stable — after climbing down from sky-high tariffs and harsh trade restrictions. It underscores China's confidence in playing hardball when dealing with the Trump administration, especially when trade is linked to its energy and foreign policies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, emerging from the talks, told reporters that when it comes to Russian oil purchases, the "Chinese take their sovereignty very seriously."

"We don’t want to impede on their sovereignty, so they would like to pay a 100% tariff," Bessent said.

On Thursday, he called the Chinese "tough" negotiators, but said China's pushback hasn't stalled the negotiations. "I believe that we have the makings of a deal," Bessent told CNBC.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the consultancy Teneo, said he doubts President Donald Trump would actually deploy the 100% tariff. "Realizing those threats would derail all the recent progress and probably kill any chance" for Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to announce a trade deal if they should meet this fall, Wildau said.

In seeking to restrict oil sales by Russia and Iran, a major source of revenue for both countries, the US wants to reduce the funding available for their militaries, as Moscow pursues its war against Ukraine and Tehran funds militant groups across the Middle East.

China plays hardball

When Trump unveiled a sweeping plan for tariffs on dozens of countries in April, China was the only country that retaliated. It refused to give in to US pressure.

"If the US is bent on imposing tariffs, China will fight to the end, and this is China’s consistent official stance," said Tu Xinquan, director of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. WTO is the acronym for the World Trade Organization.

Negotiating tactics aside, China may also suspect that the US won't follow through on its threat, questioning the importance Trump places on countering Russia, Tu said.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Beijing is unlikely to change its posture when it sees inconsistencies in U. foreign policy goals toward Russia and Iran, whereas Beijing's policy support for Moscow is consistent and clear. It's also possible that Beijing may want to use it as another negotiating tool to extract more concessions from Trump, Kennedy said.

Danny Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Beijing now sees itself as "the one holding the cards in its struggle with Washington." He said Trump has made it clear he wants a "headline-grabbing deal" with Xi, "so rejecting a US demand to stop buying oil from Iran or Russia is probably not seen as a deal‑breaker, even if it generates friction and a delay."

Continuing to buy oil from Russia preserves Xi's "strategic solidarity" with Russian President Vladimir Putin and significantly reduces the economic costs for China, Russel said.

"Beijing simply can’t afford to walk away from the oil from Russia and Iran," he said. "It’s too important a strategic energy supply, and Beijing is buying it at fire‑sale prices."

China depends on oil from Russia and Iran

A 2024 report by the US Energy Information Administration estimates that roughly 80% to 90% of the oil exported by Iran went to China. The Chinese economy benefits from the more than 1 million barrels of Iranian oil it imports per day.

After the Iranian parliament floated a plan to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in June following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, China spoke out against closing the critical oil transit route.

China also is an important customer for Russia, but is second to India in buying Russian seaborne crude oil exports. In April, Chinese imports of Russian oil rose 20% over the previous month to more than 1.3 million barrels per day, according to the KSE Institute, an analytical center at the Kyiv School of Economics.

This past week, Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, plus an additional import tax because of India’s purchasing of Russian oil. India's Foreign Ministry said Friday its relationship with Russia was "steady and time-tested."

Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff and a top policy adviser, said Trump has been clear that it is "not acceptable" for India to continue financing the Ukraine war by purchasing oil from Russia.

"People will be shocked to learn that India is basically tied with China in purchasing Russian oil," Miller said on Fox News Channel’s "Sunday Morning Futures." He said the US needs "to get real about dealing with the financing of this war."

Congress demands action

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, is pushing for sanctions and tariffs on Russia and its financial backers. In April, he introduced a bill that would authorize the president to impose tariffs as high as 500% not only on Russia but on any country that "knowingly" buys oil, uranium, natural gas, petroleum products or petrochemical products from Russia.

"The purpose of this legislation is to break the cycle of China buying oil below market price from Putin’s Russia, which empowers his war machine to kill innocent Ukrainian civilians," Graham said in a June statement.

The bill has 84 co-sponsors in the 100-seat Senate. A corresponding House version has been introduced, also with bipartisan support.

Republicans say they stand ready to move on the sanctions legislation if Trump asks them to do so, but the bill is on hold for now.